How the Bush Administration Created the Disaster in Georgia

Pass the tinfoil:

* The State Department gave Russia the green light to go into South Ossetia if Georgia made a big move in South Ossetia, thinking that the Russians had made an implied commitment to stay out of Georgia proper. But State never told the Georgian government

* Knowing that the Russians were baiting Saakashvili, State kept telling the Georgians to keep cool. Nonetheless, no one who works for the U.S. government had any advance warning of Saakashvili's decision to advance on Tskhinvali. The U.S. advisers attached to the Georgian Army were kept in the dark, and Saakashvili didn't give Washington a heads-up about his big gamble.

* Our satellites were so busy watching Pakistan that we didn't notice Russian tanks massing in North Ossetia.

Yes, you read all of that right.

Jonathan Landay of McClatchy, which has been pound-for-pound the best news organization in the U.S. since 2001, has the gory details, and doesn't even front them. Instead, he tells a very businesslike story with no heavy breathing. To my eye, that gives it extra credibility compared to a story where the lead is a triumphant "gotcha!".

I've pasted the dynamite below, but read the whole thing to get the context.

In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "Can't anyone here play this game?"

If Bill Clinton were still President and the Republicans still controlled Congress, I think they'd skip the impeachment hearings and proceed directly to a Bill of Attainder. As Kevin Drum says, this explains why the Beloved Leader stayed in Beijing and the Secretary of State stayed on vacation as the Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia; that wasn't actually a surprise. The only surprise was that the tanks didn't stop at the provincial border.

Clearly, if we were going to tell the Russians they were free to clobber the Georgians, we should have told the Georgians the same thing. "Please be restrained" isn't at all the same thing as "You're on your own, buddy." If Saakashvili had known that the Russians had the green light from us, he wouldn't have tried to take Tskhinvali.

Saakashvili must have completely misread the situation in Washington; his play depended on the Russians not doing what our State Department apparently had an "understanding" with the Russians that they would do. Maybe he was gambling (correctly) that the Russians would break the understanding and (incorrectly) that Washington would do something about it. He might well have overestimated how much actual pull his contractor Scheunemann and his buddy McCain had, or maybe he got different signals from the White House than his underlings got from State.

Either way, it's a cock-up of epic proportions, leading to a huge win for Putin (he now gets to look "reasonable" for not insisting on toppling the Georgian government or holding any territory in Georgia proper while claiming everything else he could possibly have wanted from the situation) and a huge black eye for the U.S.

Hearings, please.

*************

McClatchy Newspapers

first posted: Mon, Aug. 11, 2008
last updated: August 12, 2008 08:16:02 AM

U.S. knew Georgia trouble was coming, but couldn't stop it

Jonathan S. Landay

Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia's sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province's capital, Tskhinvali.

Not only did the U.S. troops working alongside their Georgian counterparts not see any signs of an impending invasion, Georgian officials did not notify the U.S. military before the incursion, a senior U.S. defense official told McClatchy.

"We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this," the State Department official said. "We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it's not."

And as to why we didn't see the tanks while they were still in Russia:

U.S. "national technical means," the official name for spy satellites and other technology, are "pretty well consumed by Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan," the official said, and there was only limited monitoring of Russian military movements toward the Georgian border.

Comments

[charlietuna11]

when bush went awol as a member of the texas natl. guard, no one died..his being awol now will cost thousands of human lives and show the world this man is far out of his class. he was never a match for putin, who toyed with the bush ego. as dumb as bush is, its quite possible hes more intelligent than mccain. how scary is that? any how, i truly feel sorry for the nation people of georgia. they were duped by w. , i hope he learned a lesson, with his reelection, its obvious we didn't...

[DaNang65]

As much as I love Yogi Berra, it was Casey Stengel who famously said "Can't anybody here play this game", in reference to the 1962 Amazin' Mets. One can never forget the baseball buffoonery that was those Mets, led by the incomparable Marvelous Marv Throneberry.
Or, as Casey used to say, "you could look it up".

[AveryMoore]

Saakashvili thinks Georgia just got a pounding?

But worse than London?

Two men, two crises, both leaders under bombardment " 1 for years, the other days.

Their approach to rousing other nations to help? One says, send what you can when you can. The other basically calls his allies chickens.

One provokes a war by striking the first blow against unarmed civilians, the other rallies the population to be as stiff as he is under duress.

One is unequivocally a leader and demonstrates it in his character, the other, wearing a flak jacket, is filmed in Gori during an air raid " none of his armed guards can run fast enough to catch him. It's on the net.

It's an old saw that countries get the leaders they 'deserve.' A fabulous myth. And BS. Great leaders do not come to prominence except by chance. We needn't look far to understand mediocrity is the norm in hierarchy " merely to our own times. So many countries are paralyzed and jeopardized by mediocre leadership.

[sib]

After all this 2000 people are dead and maybe more to come.

[cardineau]

When he was elected in 2000, I was dumbfounded by the ignorance of our population. Now after 8 years, I cannot recall anything he has said that wasn't a lie, a half truth, or a misrepresentation of some kind. He is the epitome of everything bad in a human being. Now, I read this and I know that we are a doomed nation. I shall no longer teach my grandchildren patriotism, but tell them to become citizens of the world. The US is not the place to build a wholesome life.

[TheHandyman]

As some else posted on another site: At today's news conference in Beijing, President Bush stated that he had total faith in Georgia. He told of the many times the Bulldogs had clawed their way back in the fourth quarter. He predicted that they would win by a touchdown or better. "Go Bulldogs," he yelled!

[PepperzMom]

Well, that explains it! The Dawgs have had so many players with legal problems, they must have been hanging around Shrub & Gonzy & all the rest of the finest "offensive" (ahem) line in the world!

:)

[SamEllison]

Yogi gets credit for many things he didn't say, I think Casey Stengel said that about an early NY Mets team he was managing. Of course Stengel's Senate testimony was the best, I think?

[AmHope]

We should lock up G.W.Bush and his cohorts (all in one, small jail cell) and throw away the key. What a mess they made of our country and parts of the world. It's sickening and sad.

[wanked]

Please take action and Sign the petition to impeach the criminal bush.

[waverly]

They are meddling to create conflict to get McCain elected. It will only get worse as we get closer to the elections. I don't trust them ... they will START ANOTHER WAR TO WIN AN ELECTION.

[PKSSK]

An amazing interview with former Ambassador Richard Holbrook this morning on C-Span, which he discussed the Georgia-Russian conflict. The caller asked how we, as American's, can get the truth and facts as opposed to government propaganda about these political situations and he told her to stop watching television and turn to the internet for informational sources. I will begin by recommending McClatchy.com as a great source.

[Ergon]

It very much looks like Georgia's handed Obama the presidential election. LOL!

[demfriend]

So McCain's lobbyist for Georgia is sitting with Mac, Bush is playing at the Olympics and Condi's on vacation while a whole lot of people get killed by Russia with administrations approval? What/who does the administatration think they are? Why is this not out in front of everyone but hidden away just like all of the other evil things Bush and co. have done? MSM I have lost total faith in you and now there is more blood on American hands while you play Olympics/John Edwards/campaign to death! MSM you are of equal blame for letting all of the evil deeds this administration has done. You are a Free Press because of all of the soldiers who have died to protect just that! We have lost over 4500 in the middle east while you have turned your head on the war built on lies. Thousands of ours are injured/crippled for life. Iraq the country has been brought down to rubble and so many people killed and injured there on your watch. The afghanistan country is a mess with more going on there with opinions saying we should leave because it is not as bad as we are told and those who say the opposite. Now Georgia vs Russia Invaded with many dead and Putin licking his chops because he did it with Bush helping him! MSM you are a shameful lot of worthless journalist for letting this administration get away with these things and more.

[khristmaskathy]

Plus BushCo is spoiling for another war in Iran. DISGRACEFUL ADMINISTRATION. They have set back America decades and I cannot believe how inadequate the MSM has been in reporting the truth. I understand how you feel DEMFRIEND; I second it!!!

[roselaw]

DON'T FORGET OUR ACTIONS ON KOSOVO, IN ENGINEERING ITS DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE FROM SERBIA, A CLOSE ALLY OF RUSSIA. RUSSIA WAS INFURIATED AT THE SEVERANCE OF AN ETHNIC ONCLAVE AGAINST THE WISHES OF A SOVEREIGN NATION. SEE THE ARTICLE AT THE CS MONITOR, (By Fred Weir, February 20, 2008)

IT WARNED THAT OTHER MICRO-STATES WOULD LIKELY BECOME MORE RESTIVE, AND RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS SAW THIS AS OPEN SEASON TO TAKE BACK RUSSIAN OR RUSSIAN-LEANING MINORITIES FROM REMANTS OF ITS EMPIRE. AS BUCHANNAN SAID, BUSH/RICE NEVER MISS A CHANCE TO POUR GASOLINE ON A FIRE.

PUTIN IS A REMARKABLE TACTICIAN, AGAINST THE IDIOTS WHO LEAD THE U.S. OSSETIA AND THE OTHER PROVINCE WILL BECOME RUSSIAN, AND FRANKLY, JUST AS IN KOSOVO, RUSSIA WON'T ASK OUR PERMISSION.

THIS IS PAYBACK, AND WE'VE BEEN HUMILIATED AGAIN. OUR SIDE IN LEBANON GOT THEIR ASSED KICKED BY HEZBOLLAH, ISRAEL GOT A BLOODY NOSE IN ITS INVASION (WHY WASN'T THAT "DISPROPORTIONATE?), HAMAS HAS HUMILIATED OUR BOY ABBAS, IRAN HAS COME OUT THE WINNER ON IRAQ, AND WE'RE LOSING AFGHANISTAN. AND THAT'S JUST A START!! (DON'T EVEN ASK ABOUT AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA, WHERE OUR "BRAND" IS IN DECLINE, AND CHINA AND OTHERS ARE CUTTING LUCRATIVE DEALS EVERYWHERE)

[mosh]

So have the chickens come home to roost or what??

[styleturn]

The short story.

Saakashvili raises Georgia's military spending from $30 million to $1 billion.

Saakashvili spends millions on lobbying U.S. politicians.

Saakashvili decides to invade South Ossetia.

Saakashvili brags about his troops killing some of the Russian UN peacekeepers stationed in South Ossetia.

Saakashvili refuses to sign an agreement suggested in the UN by the Russians for both sides to lay down arms and agree to stop fighting.

Saakashvili is surprised to discover that the Russian's will not leave without the agreement.

Saakashvili goes public and asks McCain to attack Russia. (McCain?)

Likely result:

Saakashvili goes private and asks for his money back and a plane out.

[mosh]

Perhaps you might translate these bare facts into some kind of narrative explaining the 'why' of the piece?

Especially why Saakashivili decided to invade South Ossetia - ???

I assume it had all to do with oil and pipelines and protecting access to ports? Isn't that what all invasions are really about these days - good old fossil fuel.

And is that why the US backed Georgia, at least in name, because the US wanted to counter Russia's oil hegemony in the region?

Because based simply on the facts you lay out Saakashvili appears to be an irrational madman.

[styleturn]

Here in huffingtonpost land we live with a 250 word limit .

Many of the blogs contain the interesting information. Everyone slams blogs for being biased but the truth is many blogs are written with disclaimers. More importantly they have history that allow readers to evaluate the accuracy and bias of the content that the MSM rarely admit to having.

I have yet to read anyone that thinks they know exactly why this happened at this time. Although Cossacks versus Russians comes up often. South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been designated as Commonwealth of Independent States since the early 1990s. They voted themselves out of Georgia and have Russian passports.

Georgia, Israel and the U.S. have been having training exercises since mid-July. The decision to attack South Ossetia officially a surprise to the Americans and the Israelis. Perhaps the Georgians really are trickier than the U.S. military was able to predict. Kind of embarrassing if it is true. In either case, some folks say that Saakashvili must have hoped, since he left the exit tunnel open, that the entire province of South Ossetia would escape to Russia.

I'm a bit more cynical in that I suspect that some of the people involved are hoping for an incident between Russia and the U.S. It is also possible that this whole thing is misdirection gone bad. There probably are lots of players with differing motivations.

The part that seems completely unexplainable is Saakashvili pleading to McCain to intervene.

[joanndarc]

Saakashviliwanted to use the US, and the US government exploited him for political reasons.
By the way, what EU has to do with Georgia, it is in Asia.
US corporations simply want to privatize the oil rich region.