Mike O'Hare thinks the Administration's "Stay the Course" policy is like pursuing the Martingale System at roulette: if you keep doubling your bets until you win, eventually you'll go home ahead of the game: unless you go broke first.
I think we're caught instead in Martin Shubik's "Dollar Auction Game." That's a bad place to be.
How do we get out of this fix with the loss of as little skin as possible?
Here's one idea: announce right now that we don't intend to establish a permanent military presence in Iraq, and that our troops will be out of there as soon as it's clear that an elected government is in place and that its security forces can handle any insurgent activity. That way, if you're a moderate Iraqi nationalist, your goal of an Iraq free of American domination is associated with the success of the new government rather than its failure.