20,000 Futures Contracts On Hagel As Obama VP Purchased On July 20th

Intrade.com is one of the offshore entities that allows you to place a wager on countless political propositions and among the popular areas for wagers is who the presumptive presidential nominees will select as their running mate. I always enjoy visiting the site because you get to see how real money is being wagered, rather than the meaningless hot air we get from the talking heads on cable television.

So, it struck me this afternoon when I noticed that a pretty massive wager was placed on July 20 that Barack Obama (D) will select Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) as his running mate.

On that day, it appears that someone purchased a single block of 20,000 futures contracts that the Republican Hagel will become the Democratic vice presidential nominee. The contracts would have cost approximately $13,500 (~$.675/contract), and if correct, the wager will return $200,000.

To give you a sense of how large of a trade this is, only 15,000 contracts in total have traded on the 46 potential McCain running mates, and just 24,000 contracts in total on the other 52 potential Obama running mates. The candidate with the second most contracts is Hillary Clinton (D) at 5,351 contracts, and most of those contracts were traded throughout the year, not in one lump like with Hagel. On the GOP side, 2,744 contracts have traded on Mitt Romney (R), and those too were traded throughout the year.

In case you're wondering, July 20th is the day that Obama and Hagel were together in Afghanistan. They were in Iraq the following day.

Seems like quite a bet to make, but a handsome pay-off if this person is correct.

Do they know something we don't?

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "20,000 Futures Contracts Traded On Hagel To Be Obama VP In One Day Last Month"

Follow Mark Nickolas on Twitter: www.twitter.com/mnickolas

Comments

[bobste]

Maybe it was Hagel who placed the bet. Hagel=SecDef.

[craigdawson]

Hagel would be a bad choice for VP.
Sure, it would be in the news a lot, and everybody would be talking about it. But to have a conservative Republican as your VP is just stupid.

What is interesting is that TV show that came out a couple years ago with Geena Davis as the President of the US. She was a left leaning moderate independent VP on a Republican presidential ticket and when the President dies she becomes president and takes the country in a completely different direction than the President with her more left leaning views and causing all sorts of havoc in the Cabinet, etc.

Why would anyone want this possible scenario to happen with Obama and Hagel?!?

Hagel is a complete conservative and is only against the mainstream Republicans because of his opposition to the Iraq war.

What would be ideal is that sometime during the convention Hagel comes out to endorse Obama and Obama announces who he would choose as possible cabinet positions and offers Hagel the Secretary of Defense.

As SecDef his social conservative views would not affect any Obama administration policy on social issues. He would be in charge of the Defense Dept and that's it. And Obama can also use him as an adviser on how to deal with Republican senators and such.

But i think the key is to announce him as SecDef before the election.

[Simone]

This is just silly. The only difference between McCain and Hagel is Iraq.

[navalvet]

Indeed. Sen. Hagel is another senator without executive experience, so he does not complement Sen. Obama's strong points. He shares little with Sen. Obama's supporters beyond Iraq. He had the courage to speak up against the war, when he knew he would not seek relection. It is doubtful that he would bring either any Republican voters or any more independents over to Obama. No deal.

[Azor]

1. Hagel has extensive business experience
2. He started speaking against Iraq and quite a few other things messed up horribly by this horrible administration long before he decided to retire
3. nobody can know for sure, but it is likely that he would bring along quite a few disenchanted republicans and even more independents

This being said, I still think that in many ways it is too risky, too dramatic a choice for no drama Obama and it's not going to happen.

[speakeasy]

How in the heck could you run a debate with two repubs for VP???? They would agree on everything except the Iraq war. Aside from the war, Hagel is over 80% in voting for everything else Bush. I like Hagel as some sort of adviser, but VP, no way.

[Steamboater]

To pick Hagel over a democrat like Hillary Clinton would infuriate her supporters even more and insure they stay home election day; I would. I admire Hagel's position on the war in Iraq but everythng else--no way! Still, considering Obama's coming out of the closet as a pseudo-republican e.g., FISA, some abortion rights, off-shore drilling etc etc etc, don't be surprised if he picks a right-wing democrat like Bayh. Biden should be his choice however. He's the best of the lot and during the VP debate, Biden would make mincemeat out of the republican VP nominee, whether he be Romney, Crist or any of the other boobs McCain selects.

[HurryUp1212009]

They stay home, you crybaby. It's amazing how Bubba, Hill and their "supporters" can't get over losing. SHE LOST, GET IT? SHE LOST! And remember, she SIGNED A CONTRACT not to honor votes in Michigan and FLorida, then repudiated her contract when she realized it was the only way to stay close to Obama. The Clintons have trouble honoring their commitments, marital or electoral, and that is why she isn't going to be the nominee, now or in 2012. It's flagrant now that the Clintons are hoping that Obama loses, so Hill can try again in 2012. Only then, the Obama supporters will kneecap HER in payback... Meanwhile, America gets 8 years more of Republican hegemony. The Clintons only care about themselves and their egos, not the Democratic Party or America. That's why she isn't going to be the nominee, now or in 2012. Obama ought to tell them where to go, in no uncertain terms, and NOT pander to either of them. Machiavelli was right to suggest you destroy your enemies when you win, lest they rise up and try to fight again. Obama should pick a mature woman as his running mate, someone other than Hillary. My personal favorite is Dianne Feinstein. She will deliver California, the Jewish vote and her experience is FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE than Hillary's. Maybe you should stop pouting, grow up and vote for the Democratic nominee that WON THE PRIMARY fair and square.

[Steamboater]

Diane Feinstein--the woman who helped give us Mukasey? LOL So much for CHANGE. At least Hillary Clinton voted against FISA and Obama, for all his opposition to the Iraq war, continuously voted to fund it. Don't piss on my back and tell me it's raining. I suppose FISA means nothing to you. He'll also leave troops behind he'll call something other than 'combat troops' in Iraq and call combat troops home. As for off-shore drilling ...another flip flop. It doesn't matter to you what he does, only what he says so good luck. You've got yourself a class A loser. That's unfortunate because he had a chance to bring real change. He picks a right-wing dem or Hagel as VP nominee and I will stay home election day. I'll hold my nose and vote for Obama if he picks a progressive but he won't. Instead of trying to persuade the opposition to come over to his side, he takes the easy and lazy way out and talk of change becomes the same-old same-old. Hillary Clinton has her faults but Bill Clinton's adultery is not one of them and you should know that. She's strong, sticks to her positions, something Obama could learn from. Obama's a wuss and wants to please everyone so much that change mean's less than nothing.

[djarvis]

I hope it's not Hagel. His anti-Iraq stance not withstanding, he's still a Republican, and I don't think putting a Republican on the ticket would be very appealling to most Democrats. There are too many good Democrats to choose from and it would be an insult to people like Evan Bayh, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd for Obama to choose a Republican.

[Ramus]

What Hagel has that Biden, Dodd, and Bayh don't have (just forget Clinton) is military experience. He's a Vietnam vet. Although he is a social conservative (anti-choice) if Obama is trying to reach across party lines Hagel might be the guy, Wasn't he one of the owners of Diebold voting machines? Did he sell his shares in that company? Just asking.

[ESerafina42]

Uh, the VP's main purpose is to be there if for some reason the President can't serve, in which case one would ASSUME that he would want someone who would agree with his vision for the country, not a clone of the guy he's running against and the one he wants to replace. If he wants someone with military experience there are plenty of Democrats available, Gen. Clark for one. You people who say no to Hillary (who agrees with Obama on virtually everything) because she's "Republican lite" but like the idea of Sen. Hagel (R-Full Strength) just show how blinded you are by hatred of her. Even if you don't like her, she should be preferable to him.

[Steamboater]

Sometimes when you try to reach across the party lines, you wind up in the other party e.g., for all intents and purposes--­Lieberman. Obama doesn't need a warrior on his ticket. We've had enough of those. Biden is a good choice. He's smart, extremely knowedgable about world affairs and can take on any of the GOP'ers on McCain's short list in a debate. I like Dodd too, although I still think Obama needs Hilllary Clinton. She's not the monster Obama supporters made her out to be during the primaries. Her husband's a problem though and she would have to convince Obama that Bill Clinton would be better off as ambassador to some country far far away.

[PingMama]

Didn't Biden service in Vietnam?

[omop]

Huffington P. would help out its readers "potential investments" by having Phil Sedgwick and Mark Nickolas jointly write up a "bookie" form for November 2008 and have readers send in their choices with the winning choice getting an exclusive interview with Arianna H.

[eggman]

You see $13,000 bets all the time in Vegas, and the odds and payoff are no worse here. Just a guy placing a bet.

I wonder what the cost and payback of a few Sebelius shares would run me?

[holyhandgrenaid]

Hagel wouldn't be that great a choice. Apart from his stance on the war, he is much to conservative. However, if you wanted to go with a anti-war republican, Lincoln Chaffee is a better choice. He voted against the war from day 1 (one of very few senators to do so), is a former senator (albeit only because he had a (R) next to his name in 2006, regardless of politics, he didn't stand a chance), has since left the republican party, and been pretty repentant (judging by his occasional post here on Huffington) finally, unlike Hagel, he was widely regarded as the 'most liberal republican senator' when he was in office (granted, I'm not sure what the scale of that position really is)

Point is, Hagel is a bad choice, however if you want the 'bipartisan' ticket, Chaffee is the way to go

[sufi66]

He would be a lousy choice. If anything should happen to Obama, I don't want a Republican president. Moreover Hagel has a pretty conservative domestic voting record including, for instance, voting against extending unemployment benefits four months ago. How's that for compassion?

A larger point: Anyone who is still a Republican given what the party has done to this country since 1980 is either a fool or a sadist.

[bbbear]

IMHO, the point is any repub VP on a supposed dem ticket is not merely a bad choice, it's a horrible choice!

[Ramus]

Chaffee was one of 27 Senators smart enough to vote agains the "blank check" on October 11, 2002 and the only Republican to do so. He was a real hero. But, he is from the liberal North East. Obama needs to avoid a liberal northeaste­rner...Bob Graham would be a good choice but he's too old and has had heart problems..too bad. Obama needs somebody with military experience and somebody from the MidWest or South. He needs to balance the image of "The Other, the threatening unknown" that the Republicans are trying to use to motivate their people to the polls.

[GunnyJ]

I'd like to see him select Caroline Kennedy and really put a fresh face on everything! Hagel would do the same, but to a lesser degree. It could work and it would lay to rest the McC run for President.

[ESerafina42]

And what are her qualifications for running the country, besides her last name? I can just see the ads - The "Celebrity" ticket, the most inexperienced team ever to run for the highest offices in the land. If being First Lady doesn't qualify you, surely spending 3 years of your childhood in the White House doesn't.

[WilliamGossett]

Unlikely to be the outcome:
1) It was bought on one day at the spur of the moment. It was just a hunch.
2) Hagel is too conservative for most Dems as Lieberman is too liberal for most GOP. Unlikely that either one will get the nod.

Obama has to do something bold such as Hillary or Hagel. He cannot stay where he is and win. He must bust loose. If he chooses Bayh or Kaine he chooses Mr. Nobody and has t take 2 - 3 weeks tto introduce them to the country - wasting valuable campaign time. Hillary & Hagel are well known.

[JimR]

I know the national media has been pummeling us with national poll results, but they are virtually useless. As you know, we use the Electoral College to choose a president, so state results give a more accurate picture of where people stand. You always have to take these with a grain of salt, and there is still a lot of work for Obama to do, but last I checked, roundups of state polls have Obama far ahead of McCain.

[Ramus]

Correct JimR. Listen to Chucky T..he knows what he's talking about.

[Insideout143]

Hagel??? You mean one of the biggest involved in the electronic voting machines fraud? Definitely NO!

[UnknownSoldier]

He would be on the right side this time

[Tommygun264]

To have someone who got into office in a mysterious landslide where the votes were counted by machines made by the company he owned one heartbeat away from the Presidency does not inspire confidence.

[bbbear]

Yeah, the Uber Far Right, you know, as in Goose Stepping far right...

[Ramus]

I think he sold his shares of Diebold..

[Steamboater]

Hagel, except for Iraq, is always on the 'right' side.

[lovethesinner]

It would be a dagger through the heart of white-haired dude. It would also suck all the air out of the media machine. They wouldn't be able to stop talking. It would provide them with hour after hour of speculation. DORIS KERNS GOODWIN would be the most sought after woman in America. (which would please me, I love her to death -she's a Red Sox and a Dodgers fan)

As long as it's not the Senator from New York and her "first laddie" I'm okay with whoever Obama picks. But, I have my favorites: Webb and Schweitzer. (you can get them at a good price at Intrade right now, too)

[JennieB]

Ditto.

[ESerafina42]

Then obviously you're not a progressive, seeing that on most issues Hagel is just to the left of Himmler. I would support anybody who was WELL QUALIFIED and shared my viewpoint on most (not even all) issues, regardless of how I felt about them personally, but obviously you're just too warped by Clinton hatred to do anything as uh, mature, as that.

[sweetieheartsobama]

Uh - NO!

[JimR]

Uh - YES!

[ShamusNYC]

Hagel is not perfect - especially on social issues - but his selection would be a coffin nail to McBush & Co. - completely removes Iraq & Security from the table and erodes at the McC base.

However, hopefully the same could be accomplished with a strong Hagel endorsement and a strong endorsement from Powell - both of which maybe arrows that team O is saving as Sept/October surprises.

Stay tuned.

[researcher]

powell the guy that sold out america for big oil.

yea that will work for obama

I am sure powell has found a way to look at himself in the mirror after bush used him up good

and people wanted this yes sir man to be pres

he said yes sir one too many times

got him to be a big general

but failed him in the end

now take your millions and run away

[JimR]

Powell made a mistake. I'd be willing to give him a chance to redeem himself.

Now take your petty whining and run away.

[bbbear]

You nailed it and I fully agree!

[CFAmick]

Good points. He's more conservative and less military than Clark, but one of my top picks.

[Steamboater]

Powell? The man who helped give us the war in Iraq and went to the UN and lied for Bush? The man who at the beginning of Bill Clinton's first term was asked what he would do if Gays were allowed to serve openly in the militarily and said, "I'll quit!"? Obama highlights this kind of support and he might get some votes from some of right-wing America but keep a hell of a lot of progressives home on election day.