Intrade.com is one of the offshore entities that allows you to place a wager on countless political propositions and among the popular areas for wagers is who the presumptive presidential nominees will select as their running mate. I always enjoy visiting the site because you get to see how real money is being wagered, rather than the meaningless hot air we get from the talking heads on cable television.
So, it struck me this afternoon when I noticed that a pretty massive wager was placed on July 20 that Barack Obama (D) will select Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) as his running mate.
On that day, it appears that someone purchased a single block of 20,000 futures contracts that the Republican Hagel will become the Democratic vice presidential nominee. The contracts would have cost approximately $13,500 (~$.675/contract), and if correct, the wager will return $200,000.
To give you a sense of how large of a trade this is, only 15,000 contracts in total have traded on the 46 potential McCain running mates, and just 24,000 contracts in total on the other 52 potential Obama running mates. The candidate with the second most contracts is Hillary Clinton (D) at 5,351 contracts, and most of those contracts were traded throughout the year, not in one lump like with Hagel. On the GOP side, 2,744 contracts have traded on Mitt Romney (R), and those too were traded throughout the year.
In case you're wondering, July 20th is the day that Obama and Hagel were together in Afghanistan. They were in Iraq the following day.
Seems like quite a bet to make, but a handsome pay-off if this person is correct.
Do they know something we don't?
Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "20,000 Futures Contracts Traded On Hagel To Be Obama VP In One Day Last Month"
Follow Mark Nickolas on Twitter: www.twitter.com/mnickolas