Note to GOP: It's the Independents, Stupid
I've talked quite a bit lately about the biggest problem that Republicans face as they look at the 2010 and 2012 elections: it's ability to win over independent voters.
If you look at the current Pollster.com trend, 38 percent of voters self-identify as Independents, 37 percent as Democrats, and just 25 percent as Republicans. Assuming that each party gets 90 percent support from its base, Republicans would have to win independents by a 59 to 41 margin to win a typical election. Nevermind that it's Democrats who are handily winning independents these days.
But if you want one pretty dramatic example of the uphill battle Republicans face in trying to win over independents -- as they spend an inordinate amount of time attacking President Obama and his agenda and policies -- it's the right track/wrong track trend among those very independents.
Right Track/Wrong Track (Independent Voters only)
(CBS News polls)May 2009: 42% right track, 52% wrong track
Apr 2009: 35% right track, 54% wrong track
Feb 2009: 21% right track, 68% wrong track
Oct 2008: 4% right track, 89% wrong track
Again, those numbers reflect independents only.
It doesn't take a political rocket scientist to understand this spiral death trap that the GOP seems to be in when it comes to the most critical bloc of voters that will decide their immediate electoral future: independents.
Aside from independents' strong approval of President Obama's job performance (they give him 59/28 approval in this week's poll), they are growing massively more comfortable in the direction of the country -- the very direction which the GOP is fighting tooth and nail.
Good luck with that, GOP...
Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "It's The Independents, Stupid."
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Independent is just another word for voters who fear both parties, and have been burned.
Bill Clinton was a corrupt, sleazy southern pol - yet the party backed him when he lied and used the White House as a brothel. The impudence!
then the GOP proffered George Bush as the answer to this lunacy. AND supported him in his treachery.
I think the DEMS learned their lesson....
I believe Obama is the real thing. I may not agree with him on all issues - but I think he's an honest man - and I love his wife. [what a relief after H and Stepford L]
I don't think either party is innocent of this kind of treachery.
I am just waiting to see if the Jews own Obama the way they've owned every president since Carter and Kennedy. I am hoping he is able to withstand their ability to destroy careers of any who question their absolute control over foreign policy.
keep on insulting the people you need. it will just keep diving the indies to the other party
Yeah, but just wait for a full year or so into Obama's administration. When the "independents" actually figure out what's happening, things will change. I know that somehow they have captured some indefinable higher moral ground, they're not tainted by "party" or "blind ideology" voting instead for the "best candidate.
Well, that's what we all do, thank you. The independents are not the intellectually superior voters they suppose they are, examining policy papers, weighing balance in the House and Senate and so on. They are actually the most malleable of all of us. No core principles, bending to the wind of conventional wisdom and easily taken in by skilled rhetoric. "If you stand for nothing, you will fall for anything."
Granted there are some "independents" who simply can't make up their mind. But the rest of your criticism is hooey.
I'll speak for myself. I have deeply held principles, convictions, values and don't consider myself intellectually superior.
I make decisions based on who I think is going to do the best job, and not what colors they flash at the cameras. I don't make decisions based on soundbite lyrics from C&W popstars, or respect people who think they've got a handle on reality because they can quote them.
I'm cynical about people who believe they're always right, because humans are wrong a lot of the time. I prefer to judge performance, not promises.
People with strongly held ideologies, in my experience, are perfectly willing to turn a blind eye to fact, and good judgment, if it doesn't fit their preconceived views. And that is just plain dangerous. Ideologies have embraced the Inquisition, slavery, communist gulags, facist death camps and brought us 9/11 and Americans who were willing to turn their back on our own War Crimes prosecutions of World War 2 and pretend that if we did it, it wasn't the same torture.
You may wish for your political survival we independents were more malleable, but we've had your number for a long, long time. And that's why we took the power away from you.
Keep the faith, Independents. Our man Obama is going to save us, no doubt. Republicans are super stupid...d
With all of those independents out there, we need a new major party that is not owned by the corporations. One that has the american people's interest at heart. they use to be the democrats, but the are republican-lite now. If such a party does emerge, they will give the democrats a run for their money, and put the republican's out of their misery, and relegating them to a lunatic fringe party..
Agreed. May I suggest that we need an America Labor Party.
It's time for the Republicans to roll up their tent and wander off into the sunset. They quickly united behind the idea of renaming us the Democratic Socialist Party, but can't seem to come up with even one useful idea or solution for their own party.
Yes, the solution is the Independents. Yes, it doesn't take a political rocket scientist to figure it out, yet they want us to believe they are capable of retaking the reins of power and running the show, even though they've been shown repeatedly that is not what America wants, needs or will tolerate.
Shhhhhhhh.
I keep hearing Republicans like INLO1950 say we need to stick to our core beliefs. And what are these beliefs? Because when I listen to Fox news and Rush all I hear is how it is ok for Americans to torture but for anyone else it's a war crime. You want Gov't out of everyone lives and personal freedom etc. But you want to define marriage for everyone, or is that the bible? But didn't the founding fathers setup this nation as State seperate from church? And are those core beliefs drill baby drill? deny global warming? Small Gov't that expanded under Bush the true conservative hero. The only reason the Rep are even taken at all is because people like me believe in the multi party system. I don't agree will everything that Obama is for, I don't even agree with my wife on everything. But between the Dems and the Reps, I will take the Dems for now until a better solution comes along. And I don't see anything but crazy tea parties and everyone is a socialist nonsense from the Right.
I'm an unaffiliated party voter who would never allign myself with a political party that would burn me at the stake for my beliefs.
The good news is the republican party would never let you in in the first place.
I suspect many independents - I'm one - are cynical about ideologies, right or left, and positively hate being pandered to.
Partisan politics were not a factor in the Constitution or the principles of our early democracy, so, in that respect, I believe independents have far more in common with the Founders and their vision than either party today, and certainly far more than the GOP and their "you're wrong, we're right" mentality.
While the nation has flirted at times with strong ideologies, generally the lessons learned from them have all been negative. I believe the American experience is about the triumph of pragmatism and idealism over the divisions of social class and ideology.
Obama reflects that.
The GOP is threatened by it. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why.
Blueshield needs a lesson on constitutional history. To say there was no partisan politics involved is akin to say the sun rises in the west. It was so strong you had people dueling.
Independents are people who don't know what they believe. They float on a current of feelings and are always susceptible to 'marketing' ploys.
Do they currently support Obama because of what he says or how he says it?
If independents had core beliefs they would not need to be pandered to as blueshield hates so much. I propose blueshield wants to be pandered to. It makes 'him' feel important, wanted, needed. He wants to be part of the majority, the warm middle. This gives him validation.
Republicans do not need to listen they need to educate. They need to show the principles this country was founded on and build that foundation. If we have to spend a few years out in the wilderness I will wear my ash and sack cloth. I will suffer through Obama's experiment with socialism but I will never exchange what I believe to be the proper course for a desire to be in a pandered group of intellectual dolts.
Obama's experiment with socialism? You wonder why republicans have the stereotype of being uneducated. If you hate socialism so much, let me give you my address and you can mail me all of your future social security checks and all your medicare benefits. Also, while you're out in the wilderness, I'd better not catch you at any national parks or ANY public park fo that matter because they're socialist too. And you should probably keep your obvious current distance from any educational institution.
I find it ironic that you feel republicans need to educate the 80% of Americans who are likely far more educated than their republican "teachers".
Good luck with that.
Independents have core beliefs. Neither of 2 parties absolutely addresses them. So an Independent looks to which party in an election gives them more answers on their beliefs and votes accodingly. You're trying to paint Independents as wishy washy and pointless. We're not. So it's you who might need to take a lesson or two.
And that condescending attitude you were using there? That's one of the reasons you and your party are headed into the wilderness. You have no idea silly it sounds. Your party has messed up pretty much everything they could mess up from our economy to our security, they holler small government while they exploded it, they're not going to sell out principles after selling them out for 8 years - but you're going to "educate" us. To quote your poster girl Palin? "Thanks but not thanks".
Fill your backpack with clothes for all weather. You're going to be in that wilderness for a while.
There is LITTLE danger that the GOP will listen to voters.
Problem is - the independents are aware of the principles this country was founded on and don't believe republicans represent them.
Republicans can't keep going around saying the customer is wrong, and expect their product to be bought, especially when they say the customer is stupid for not buying it. Not only the customer isn't going to purchase the product, they're not even going to step inside the store.
Keep it up guys, you're doing just fine.
Once again, "never underestimate the reliability of stupidity".
Go back to school, take some civic and history classes, then come back and talk again.
The advice that the Republican Party attempt to enlist Independents makes a lot of sense. Independents represent a huge percentage of the voting public. It's my opinion however, that the current Republican Party lacks the basic intelligence to go after them. They are an uncompromising lot and so far right that they view everyone else as extreme left. Too bad.
rush limbaugh said to jeb bush/cantor/romney listening tour: don't listen to americans, teach them.....
next day, cantor agreed. (or was that apologized?)
obama/biden 2012
Here is the problem for the GOP when it comes to bringing new voters to the party.
The Democrats policy positions are good for many people who tend not to be involved in the political process...
The Republican policies only help a very small number of people. Their ability to attract people to their party are based entirely on divisive social issues OR (until recently) convincing Joe the Plumber types that Nancy Pelosi, etc are out to get them...con
This latter strategy has been exposed by the Bush years.
How can the GOP find NEW people to vote against themselves?
Precisely.
And that is why they were (thanks Limbaugh ) having a listening tour. The whole thing was designed to convince people that the last 8 years (or last 30 years considering people are connecting the deregulati
Like you said, their sole purpose is taking care of the filthy rich. That's been their goal, to undo everything FDR did.
You are absolutely correct. They just can bring themselves to accept the fact that a majority of the people have finally figured out that they are full of s**t!
Their propaganda was successful beyond their wildest dreams, and they are just devastated that it no longer works. Its like the abusive husband who is losing it when the wife finally figures out she doesn't need him anymore, and gets a divorce.
That's were the GOP is now.
Independents (& I am one) obviously don't fit into either party.
It is not really in the psychology of either party to appreciate that
they ought to 'do' something, change somehow, to draw us in,
except threats & persuasion at election time, if then. (This may
be a major flaw in our political system.) As much as I detest
Republicans, in the end I ain't that happy with Democrats either,
and I'm most comfortable as a 'free thinker'.
Oddly enough, the Repos may go the way of the dodo bird &
there's nothing much to be done about it. Should they try to
drag some Independents down with them? I don't think so.
The Democratic Party will never be what it was pre-Obama.
But the GOP thinks its success was about style, not substance.
Which is why Independents won't be fooled. They know the difference.
Shhhhhh! Don't TELL them what they're too stupid to figure out!
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