The B-Team Is Alive and Well In McCainland

Today's Politico has a very illuminating story on the ground operations and electoral strategies of the two presidential campaigns. While Politico, not surprisingly, provided quite a favorable headline for the McCain camp -- After shake-up, McCain ground game revs up -- clearly the person who wrote the story had nothing to do with that title since the story really spotlights two more major McCain problems: organization and tactics.

First, the story reports an assertion by the McCain camp about the "strength" of its ground operation that really cracked me up:

"I recognize that they will have more staff, more offices and more money," said Mike DuHaime, the political director who was brought over from his advisory role with the Republican National Committee. "But we have staff and volunteers who are battle-tested."

Apparently, DuHaime believes that because this staff worked the 2004 campaign, they are "battle-tested" for 2008, which is pretty damn funny and pleases me (as a Democrat) to no end. (Note: By the way, you may remember that DuHaime was Rudy Giuliani's (R) presidential campaign manager, so we've already seen how "talented" of an operation he can build, especially in places like Florida where they camped out for months and still finished a distant third.)

Of course, Obama's battle-tested forces are those who fought in the trenches during the 2008 campaign, against a primary candidate and campaign who was so much tougher and smarter than anything we've seen from McCain this year, or from the RNC over the past few years (think 2006 midterm elections). And let's not overlook that Obama's team was built in all 50 states and those units have largely been in place for a year (many left in place) and are the smoothest field operation ever assembled by a presidential candidate (even more impressive, in my opinion, than the Bush teams of 2000 and 2004).

Next, DuHaime offers a peek at the McCain strategy and tactics:

McCain also now boasts county chairs in 98% of targeted counties in targeted states and 94% of all counties in targeted states.

DuHaime listed 19 targeted states: Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.

First of all, "county chairs" are a pretty worthless indicator of how deep your ground game is. We've already seen that the McCain campaign intends to open no offices in places like Indiana and North Carolina, and have dismissed any concern that the Obama camp will have three or four times the staffs and offices in places like Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania...well, you get it.

Also, I can't help but notice that the McCain camp is spending its precious resources in states like Washington, Oregon, Maine, and Minnesota. I'm thrilled they are because it will be money down a rat hole. These guys don't have a prayer in any of these states (maybe MN if Pawlenty is McCain's running mate). This is wasted money. So is their investment in West Virginia. If McCain doesn't win WV -- a state that Obama is not targeting and the site of the huge Clinton blowout against Obama in May -- then we're looking at a 350+ electoral vote landslide. And this isn't the first time I've seen the McCain camp reference WV.

But even more problematic is which states aren't among McCain's Top 19 targets.

No Indiana? No Montana? No Alaska? No North Dakota? No Georgia? Are these guys nuts? They're worried about WV but not these states? They're spending money in places they're going to lose by double-digits (WA and ME in particular), but not worried about IN? Seriously?

Then the story gets to the part that must keep DuHaime and his cronies awake at night:

Thanks to a prolonged primary that reached all 50 states, Obama's campaign structure is far more mature than McCain. Instead of using traditional precinct captains, they are relying upon "neighborhood team leaders." These consist of between half-dozen to a dozen people over four-to-six precincts.

Hildebrand wouldn't quantify how many they have in place, but said it was "already tens of thousands." A primary focus of their summer organizational efforts, he said, is putting more of these volunteers in place.

He said they use similar voter contact technology as McCain and that results are plugged in and checked daily.

And instead of weekly reports, Hildebrand gets a spreadsheet at 7:30 each morning from his state directors tallying the previous day's results on the number of voters registered and contacted.

Told of the combined 130 offices between McCain and the RNC, Hildebrand declined to share how many they had but allowed it was at least "three times" that.

The key question, Hildebrand said, is how are Republicans compensating for their diminished registration numbers.

He noted the increased number of Democrats, citing a net gain of 300,000 in Pennsylvania, a state McCain's campaign is working hard to peel away from the Democrats.

Of course, these advantages are no guarantees of victory for Obama. There's still three months to go and sometimes serious underdogs win races.

But considering that McCain continues to trail significantly in the electoral map, the money race, enthusiasm, on the issues, against the public when it comes to his political affiliation ("R") and affiliations ("Bush" as well as his cadre of lobbyists running his campaign), the tenor of his campaign (negative), and the direction he wants to take the country -- it's hard to see his path to victory when he's so out-gunned on the ground and running such a nonsensical strategy of which states to target or defend.

The B Team is alive and well in McCainland.

Note: I had missed that New Mexico was included in the McCain list of states and edited out references to it as a state being ignored. Sorry about that. My bad.

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "McCain's Tactical and Organizational Disaster"

Comments

[tubette]

Here in Oklahoma, McCain has to do nothing to win. No need to run ads or anything. A few whispered rumours is all it takes. Obama signs are everywhere. The Republicans here never really get involved or know many issues, they just vote. Very sad.

[Sciguy]

I'm in Kentucky, and it will be awarded to McCain at 6:01 PM on election day - unless there's other news, in which case it will be awarded to McCain at 6:05 PM.

Still... I wish there was a contest here. I wish Obama had a chance here. I wish Kentucky would join the 21st century and consider the fact that the Repubs like McConnell have assisted in keeping us a bunch of ignorant, unhealthy, jobless hillbillies. Sure, we've done part of it to ourselves. But Repub policies have cemented that which was only tacked down.

[Richard729]

Sciguy, don't feel like the Lone Ranger. I live near Austin, Texas which is about the only blue speck oasis in a solid red state. Republicans have controled everything here for decades.

What really is laughable is that they even manage to keep winning by telling Texans that they will not raise taxes. Well, that is a lie since the property taxes are going up every year. The other increases in spending are called "fees." No matter what they want to call it, it all comes out of the citizens' pockets.

[Sciguy]

Ah, fees. If it's a fee, it's not a tax, right? And we do still keep buying that line. I'll have to add your point to my wish list - I wish we would come out of la-la land and realize that there's no difference between a fee and a tax!

[Richard729]

"Considering that McCain continues to trail significantly, it's hard to see his path to victory when he's so out-gunned on the ground and running such a nonsensical strategy of which states to target or defend." Huh?

First of all, McCain doesn't trail significantly. As others, mainly mainstream pundits, have observed, McCain is within two to three percentage points of Obama in national polls. Given the state of our economy, ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, federal budget deficits in each and every year of the Bush administration, national debt of over $10 trillion, unemployment at 5.7% with more jobless claims each week, the financial institutions in a meltdown, the Big Three automakers on the verge of bankruptcy, the housing mess and increasing inflation, Obama should be ahead by at least 15 points over McCain. But he's not.

As to pouring money down the rathole, Obama is also making a fatal mistake in wasting even a single dime in the former slave-holding states of the Old South where all of them have McCain up by double digits.

Besides, a three-point lead by Obama now is well within the vote-hacking expertise of Republican operatives who own the security codes and operate almost all of the computer voting machines.

To Mr. Nikolas, don't look now but we're rounding the last lap and McCain, like the fable of the tortoise and the hare, will be standing at the finish watching Obama come in second.

[az0th]

"The key question, Hildebrand said, is how are Republicans compensating for their diminished registration numbers."

Yeah.. but not in the ways you mentioned. Sad to say, know-nothingism - the creed that simple, brute-force, instant-gratification solves every problem & that there's something effeminate and weak about anyone who suggests otherwise, has dominated the core of Republican policy and political strategy since Bush '41.

...and THAT's why I got the sinking feeling McCain will trounce Obama. Chalk it up to the simple-minded snake-oil appeals to quick fixes, something that sadly resonate with middle America.

[dadw5boys]

Mc Cain will pay off the National Debt, balance the Federal Budget, end poverty, cure aides, win the Afganistan war and have world peace his first 100 days.

Then after a weeks vaction he will find life on Mars.

Now what to do for the rest of the 4 years. lol

[McChimp]

I live in Virginia, and I have seen a mix of O and McCain stickers...

but out state has slowly been moving Dem since Mark Warner first took the govership, and now it continues to lean Dem with the elections of Governor Kaine and Jim Webb, and soon the election of Governor Mark Warner into the US Senate.

Virginia has PLENTY of O offices, there's no doubt that we will go blue in November, even the First Lady of Norfolk said it when Mrs. O passed through here Wednesday night in Norfolk.

O dominates the grassroots ground movement, you just don't see any kind of movement with McCain unless it's a bowel movement.

Obama 08

[Pupadup4oBama]

I live in MD (obviously much more Democratic than VA -historically) I saw the second McCain sticker, I've seen since this whole thing started. Mostly O stickers (with a few H stickers).
while i don't want to count the chickens before they've hatched - I'm 99.99% sure O will win it.

[gobarackgo]

As a Minnesotan, I can tell you that McCain has no chance here with or without Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Pawlenty stirs up about as much enthusiasm in the land of 10,000 lakes as a bucket of dead minnows.

[Pupadup4oBama]

doesn't sound like too much enthusiasm to me...:)

[Blabbermouth]

Minnesota here as well. I completely agree with gobarackgo's comment. Pawlenty is about as exciting as watching water drip while on a sedative. If McCain chooses Pawlenty they will be taking turns putting each other to sleep on the trail. Good luck

[suntzu]

So why is Mr. Nickolas giving team McCain all this useful critique and advice? Why not let 'em keep stumbling in the dark?

[sawdustinhershoes]

They'd probably be too arrogant to use anything but what they'd already planned.

[Podewumun]

Not just the "B" Team, the Junior Varsity "B" Team. The waterboys of the GOP.

[TrevorAlan]

Sorry, I have to add to my last post.

To resopnd to Hildebrand, Repubs will make up for their lower registration numbers by REMOVING democrats from voting roles. They've shown how they'll do this--voter caging, incorectly purging valid voters, making spurious challenges to legal voters, then refusing to count provisional and absentee ballots.

That's called a Republican plan for victory.

[dadw5boys]

They only refuse to count absentee votes unless they were the ones handing out the absentee ballots.

[TrevorAlan]

I'd agree but I haven't actually seen the Obama campaign kick it into high gear and I'm afraid we could have another very weak Republican handed the election by Dem mis-steps.

And by mis-steps I mean a combination of rather weak responses to hard if shallow advertising and no apparent concern for the electoral fraud seen in 2000 and 2004.

[axt113]

what you forget is that Obama isn't in public financing, so he doesn't have a deadline to spend his money, McCain does, McCain has to spend now before the convention, or lose what he has left, Obama gets to keep his, he's holding it in reserve, building his infrastructure, then once the convention comes he'll have his ground game in place and will be able to focus on hitting McCain in the ads, right now he's letting McCain burn out his weapons while he waits, its key because after the conventions is when the real attention will start to occur, then Obama can carpet the airwaves.

[McChimp]

Ah, O is playing chess not checkers... I LOVE it!!!

Obama 08

[LeftCoastIowan]

Good article but I do see New Mexico on McCain's list.

[Mark Nickolas - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for catching that. Sorry I missed it. Just updated the piece and made a note at the bottom. Mark

[PatA]

Please, please don't give these idiots something to work with. :-)

[Openeyes]

Good news that DuHaime is running things . . . into the ground. His "Rudy strategy" was to igore all the states before Florida and "focus" on that state. But by the time the Florida primaries rolled around, Rudy had already been rolled over by the other candidates, and he didn't have any kind of organization in Florida anyway, so it was a complete bust. Sounds like more of the same here - no offices, no volunteers, not much of anything in a lot of states.

Good to see they have county chairs - we can assume that is all they have, since they aren't boasting about any other organization or boots on the ground in those counties.

That was an awfully optimistic title for the article - 'ground game revs up." Reminds me of the General who was completely surrounded and said - "Good news men - we can now attack the enemy from any direction we choose."

Good luck with that John.

[scire]

lots of rudy people working for mccain. DuHaime ain't that bright. Those New Yorkers were in a bubble. McCain is in a bubble. He only one because he was the most popular of a bad lot, not because he knew what he was doing.

[Ryan Kauffman - Huffpost Blogger]

B-Teams usually win because they find something they are good at and maximize its effectiveness while never allowing the strengths of their opponent to shine through. In other words.... by being aggressive and refusing to play defense.

McCain doesn't have a strong suit to push. The American people are against him on the economy and Obama's plan for the Iraq war/ Afghanistan has been taken up by everyone. People may trust McCain more for foreign policy but the more he talks about it the less people will trust him, catch-22 style.

He also has to play defense because of Obama's superior ground game and message discipline. When B-Teams play defense they lose. Always.