The Pundits Who Had Not A Clue Two Years Ago

On this historic day, I thought it would be instructive to look back on just how wrong some of the pundits were when Barack Obama (D) launched his bid for the presidency two years ago, including the embarrassing remark by an esteemed member of the self-described "Best Political Team on Television" (CNN):

"Illinois Senator Barack Obama's announcement this week that he's likely to enter the Presidential race adds a dash of glamour and excitement to the Democratic field. But all of his media attention doesn't change the basic truth of the 2008 primary contest: The race is between Hillary Rodham Clinton and everybody else." The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, Jan. 18, 2007.

"Ask yourself, is there any other major public figure who dresses the way [Obama] does? Why, yes. It is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who, unlike most of his predecessors, seems to have skipped through enough copies of 'GQ' to find the jacket-and-no-tie look agreeable. And maybe that's not the comparison a possible presidential contender really wants to evoke... Now, it is one thing to have a last name that sounds like Osama and a middle name, Hussein, that is probably less than helpful. But an outfit that reminds people of a charter member of the axis of evil, why, this could leave his presidential hopes hanging by a thread. Or is that threads?" CNN Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield, "The Situation Room," CNN, Dec. 11, 2006.

"That Sen. Barack Hussein Obama Jr. chose the day of 'American Idol's' season premiere to launch his presidential exploratory committee is nicely symbolic.  If this were a contest about looks and style, Obama might have an edge. If it were a competition about which candidate is the best orator, he'd win. But it is neither." Cal Thomas, Washington Times, Jan. 19, 2007.

"The country will simply not elect a novice in wartime... [Obama] only has to do reasonably well in the primaries to become such a compelling national figure as to be invited onto the ticket as vice presidential nominee... Then, if the Democrats win, he will have all the foreign policy credentials he needs for life." Charles Krauthammer, Oct. 27, 2006.

Obama "is a black man with a Muslim name who would be seeking the presidency in a historically racist nation currently at war against Muslim extremists. One wonders if there is enough handsomeness, intelligence and charisma in the world to overcome all that." Leonard Pitts, Miami Herald, Jan. 19, 2007.

"To the surprise of many whites and dismay of his supporters, Barack Obama trailed Hillary Clinton among black Americans by a 40-point margin in a recent Washington Post-ABC poll... The sad truth... is that Obama is being rejected because many black Americans don't consider him one of their own and may even feel threatened by what he embodies." Orlando Patterson, Time.com, Feb. 8, 2007.

"What's a guy with only two years' experience in the U.S. Senate and none as governor, someone few outside his immediate family and the Internal Revenue Service ever heard of three years ago, doing running for president? And why is everybody--or anybody, for the matter--taking him seriously?" John Farmer, The New Jersey Star Ledger, Dec. 12, 2006.

So, whose compass was registering properly two years ago? How about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich?

"Well, Abraham Lincoln served two years in the U.S. House, and seemed to do all right." Newt Gingrich, "Meet the Press," NBC, Dec. 17, 2006, when asked about Obama's lack of experience.

"I do think every Republican ought to look at the reception Barack Obama got a week ago [during his very well-received first visit to New Hampshire]... The interest in him tells you something about Americans more than it tells you about him." Newt Gingrich, Dec. 15, 2006.

P.S. - I almost forgot the most clueless prediction of them all, courtesy of Bill Kristol during his December 17, 2006 appearance on Fox News Sunday:

I think she's taking some risks in staying on the center, not going to left, which is intelligent. She can still beat the left-wing democratic candidates, I think. And then she's pretty well-positioned for the general election. So this is all good for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single democratic primary. I'll predict that right now.

Mark Nickolas is the Managing Editor of Political Base, and this story was from his original post, "The Pundits Who Had Not A Clue."

Comments

[hmargret]

Just goes to show.....What do the "EXPERTS" know? And, now, let's take our economy back from the experts!

[SPQR1775]

Newt Gingrich actually is a very smart and swerd politician and he might have a change in 2016 if he runs, or anyone who he mentor will have a chance and the GOP best shot is to rebrand and go ethnic from top to bottom, they need it. In this case CHANGE should happen from the TOP down!

[alexis d]

If it comes out of Bill Kristol's mouth, it is wrong. A mathematical truth.

[lizziekw]

True. We should read everything he predicts and then just prepare for the exact opposite to actually happen.

Why does he even have a job anymore?

[LisainNYC]

He doesn't!!!

At least not with the NYTimes (where he never should have had a job in the first place).

[Dailyfare]

This review reminds me of the famous SNL saying: "Jane, you ignorant slut!"

[BetsyNZ]

CNN Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield, "The Situation Room," CNN, Dec. 11, 2006.

gee I wonder how much this guy gets paid ? His analysis reads more like something from Vogue magazine

[neoprimordial]

All of the people who spoke against Obama's chances were speaking under the influence... of conventional wisdom. The most likely scenario at that time appeared to be a Democratic slate with a smattering of non-White faces and Hillary Clinton. What happened with Obama was entirely unprecedented, so while it's fun to read all the wrong predictions, I don't think you can really hold it against any of them, though I still don't like Kristol. I certainly didn't think Obama would get the nomination, much less become president. It's totally unprecedented.

As for Newt Gingrich, I chalk that one up to his paying attention where the other pundits were not, though I'm not too keen on him either. He's a scholar, so it's not totally surprising.

[dutch163]

seems they "misunderestimated" both the man and the American voters..the ones who wanted their country back

[siegfried89]

You are talking about people who are completely out-of-touch with reality and the unpopularity of a President who lives in the small world of Conservative politics. Two years ago the American voter was praying for the dawning of a new age where justice and fairness are more important than profits.

[MikeSo]

The least surprising was Bill Kristol. He was no more or less than his usual level of wrong: 100%.

[Horus45]

When I saw him speak at the DNC Convention in 2004,
I KNEW he would be our President some day.

[PowerPridePinstripes]

me too... he had 'it'... that special something that was missing! Glad he's my commander in chief and I proudly salute him!

[lizziekw]

Yep. It was obvious that night that he would be President. I didn't think it would be this soon, but hey - here we go.

[Palmz]

Great post! I have been reading Super Bowl predictions the day after the game is played for many years now and it reminds me of one simple phrase that cannot be repeated enough: That is why you play the game.

The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl.

President Barack Obama (music to my ears)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Every MSM General Manager should frame this article and hang it in their interview rooms. When these overpaid "so-called" experts come looking for a job, they should ask them how was their prediction.

Talk about checking egos.

[Moka11]

I remember just about all of the media including newspapers pretty much had the general election predicted between Rudy Guiliani vs. Hillary Clinton.

Can you imagine?

[lvdragonlady]

Nope, I can not and my imagination is very good.

[lizziekw]

Clinton yes, obviously - but Giuliani? No way. I'll be surprised if he can even manage to take that senate seat in NY in 2010. He's so unlikeable.

I always thought McCain would end up on their ticket because the rest of the Republican field was so shockingly bad. He was the only plausible candidate they had out there.

[pizzmoe]

Great post! Everyone is entitled to their opinion, it's just a drag that these people actually get paid for it.

[NoToGOP08]

Awesome post! How cool to see the naysayers names and quotes. That they are still opining away is another matter entirely. Newt's was right..

[CyrusBeaucephus]

Thnaks for the laughs. I had forgotten some of those quotes. These people all still are pullinmg pundit paychecks. Only in America, where 'right' is consistently wrong, and unwilling to change