It's the Super Bowl of politics - the SOTU is watched in some years by up to 60 million people, and it's usually the President's best opportunity to address the country, tell them his plan, and bolster his approval.
What could have been a rather sleepy affair has taken on new significance with the loss of the Massachusetts Senate race - it has added dramatic tension and probably 10 million more viewers. How will the president handle the Mass. defeat? What will he say about healthcare? Is he moving to the center?
President Bush generally got little out of his State of the Union addresses. President Clinton did best in 1996 and 1998 -- one against the backdrop of the Gingrich government shutdown and the other at the start of the Monica Lewinsky revelations. Clinton successfully pushed back on his critics and reassured the nation in those two pivotal speeches.
President Obama now has to do the same.
But perhaps the biggest questions around President Obama are exactly which course is he taking on so many critical issues - I think the choices he makes will determine the success of the speech and perhaps even of his presidency. So let's go through his choices.
Wall Street vs. Main Street - The first year was spent propping Wall Street up. As the president tells it, the bankers are the bad guys now - unchanged and unbowed in his view. No question he has chosen to go after them hard, but it raises questions about his credibility and policies for the last year if he is seen as going overboard. Smart move would be to make it not just about bankers but about the need for smarter regulation to protect the small investor - in the common interest
Populism vs. Middle Class - Is the President raising taxes on the wealthy or is he bringing people together around new tax breaks for the middle class? The tone here is critical. In 1996, President Clinton eliminated almost all the class warfare language - while it might prove popular in the moment, he understood it divides rather than unites the country. I think President Obama is tilting populist, and taken too far it could be the rhetorical mistake of his presidency. President Obama got unprecedented numbers of well-educated and well-healed voters supporting him in 2008 on the basis that he would lead us away from class warfare and to a new spirit of common ground as a nation. He needs to rekindle that call.
Deficit Fighter or Stimulus Seeker - He has to choose. His signature policy of the first year was the $787 billion stimulus but the last few days his administration floated a discretionary spending freeze worth just $250 million. First and foremost he has to clear up exactly what he proposes to do to create jobs in the country and clarify the message based on what he and the economic team believes is right.
Global Economy vs. Protectionism - President Clinton rallied the country to compete and win in the new global economy despite what he saw as inevitable dislocations. Will the president go after China in the speech and fan anti-China sentiment or will he talk about the need to work together to succeed in the global economy? My bet is he goes after China.
Healthcare: Big or Small - This one has already been answered by the Massachusetts election and members of Congress - what was a sure thing a few weeks ago appears DOA now. But can the president pick out a few key strands like ending discrimination on pre-existing conditions and get those through? That would be the smart move until he extends his economic credibility with job growth.
Sending Troops or Bringing Them Home - Obama started his campaign as the president who would bring home the troops from Iraq. Now he is sending 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan, and Iraq is flaring up. Don't expect a lot about these conflicts in this State of the Union as he knows he has to focus on the voters back home - likely he will give strong support to the troops rather than re-litigate these policies.
Iran and Nukes - there is no further talk of having Iranian President Ahmadinejad at the White House. Iran is getting closer to getting nukes, so now is a time for the President to turn tougher on them, North Korea and terrorism - I expect him to be much tougher than we have seen him on these issues.
Thinking Big or Hitting the Microtrends - The big programs like the stimulus and healthcare have worried people. So expect that the President to turn to more concrete programs that affect people's everyday lives. Whether it is student loans or texting while driving, you are likely to hear much more of these bite-sized programs that reflect his values.
Democratic-Centered or More Bipartisan - The president is under pressure to reduce partisanship and, and he will likely highlight the bipartisan fiscal responsibility panel as an example of how he is bringing new ways to Washington. He needs to show that it's the Democrats who have reached out.
These are just some of the choices the president is going to have to get right. A good State of the Union is worked over line by line so that every constituency from unions to all major ethnic communities have their applause lines, and this one will be no different. It will also highlight how economic disaster was averted.
Of all these choices, though, the two most important revolve around what he is going to do about the growing and unprecedented deficits and whether he is going to stir up populist fears as a way to channel voter anger on the Republicans. The voters are -- at heart -- worried about their economic future. And it is easy to characterize these voters as simply "angry" and try to direct their anger towards the banks or to the Republicans instead of the administration. But it is convenient for the extremes on the left and the right to blame it all on voter anger - minimizing the voters and offering Tea Parties and Populism as the answers. In fact there are a lot of rational voters out there who have healthcare they don't want tampered with, who want common sense solutions to our problems that put country before party, and who want to see a new strategy for jobs creation. They will be watching to see if they have been heard and looking to see if their concerns are front and center in the President's agenda. And that will be the ultimate scorecard for this State of the Union.
Celinda Lake: The Lessons of the Massachusetts Race for the State of the Union
As we head into the State of the Union, the Democrats and the president need to note the real lessons of the Massachusetts special election. Here are five key points to take away.
Richard N. Haass: Anticipating Obama's First State of the Union
There is no doubt that the president will focus far more on domestic issues than foreign affairs. This is partly for political reasons, but also because the world is relatively calm right now compared to the economy.
Bill Lucey: Under the Gun, Obama Mounts Comeback
Who would have thought that over a year since the three presidential debates took place, McCain would look like the sensible sage, while Obama appears the one out of touch to the needs of mainstream America?
2010 State of the Union Address - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Obama To Focus On Cutting Deficit In 2010, State Of The Union
When will Barack Obama deliver the 2010 State of the Union address ...
State of the Union 2010 posts - Political Hotsheet - CBS News
State of the Union 2010: A Pivotal Moment - Brookings Institution
Even though we face a difficult road ahead, my administration will get the job done. I will not rest.
blah, blah blah.
There is no hope for us if the Media keeps playing like this.
Immigration: Charge a $15,000.00 fee for everyone who wants to become a U.S. Resident with option to pay out over 15 years. Increase this amount by $10,000.00 for every child the U.S. Resident has that goes to public schoo. This is in addition to taxes. This will offset some of our costs and employers can pay for it if they need migrant workers. U.S. Citizenship should cost another $15,000.00 (along with all the other requirements). If the 25 million illegals in this country pony up $30K a piece that will be $750 billion -- a good start in digging us out of the hole were in.
Taxes: Delay the reimposition of the tax rates prior to the Bush tax cuts. Every economist agrees that raising taxes in a recession is a bad move.
Retirement: Everyone with a 401K or other non-government (or really large union) based retirement plan has scene it cut in half. Do we really want to prevent people from contributing more to their retirement accounts as is the case under current law? Let people contribute 3x the current permitted amounts and have the government provide a 10% credit for doing so.
Here's what he should say:
Jobs: Every private employer who hires somebody from today going forward will not have to contribute matching payroll tax on that employee's pay for 2 years. This will make hiring people less expensive and will get people back to work. He then holds up a proposed bill and hands it to Nancy P.
Healthcare: The Republicans and the Democrats actually agree on 4 or 5 key points about healthcare. As such, let's pass a law to protect Americans against pre-existing condition discrimination, life time caps, enact tort reform, and permit cross border insurance purchasing. In addition, provide a full tax deduction for people who purchase health insurance on their own (just like businesses get now) which applies even if they don't itemize their deductions. Pass the bill to Nancy.
Cap & Trade: To expensive and costs will be passed on to the public...effectively a middle class tax increase. Announce he will not seek Cap & Trade law.
Pardon me?
Seems a college degree these days is nothing more than a piece paper falsly stating your are smarter than someone else.
Other than more engineers and scientists, I think this country needs more street smarts and common sense these days more than anything else.
I won't watch Obama any more. I don't know if he himself is a crook, or if he just works for crooks, or if he is somehow forced to work for crooks.
I stopped trusting him some time back. I voted for him primarily because he said he would end the "war" in Iraq- which, I believe, is not a legal war but a war of aggression, which is the supreme war crime.
I believed Obama when he said he would end that "war", and I believed when he said he would close Guantánamo. I believed that he would work for the "little guy". Instead, it really now appears that he has acted as a tool of the Pentagon, the banks, the corporations, and Wall St.
Just my opinion.