President Obama's Credibility on the Line in Honduras

Last Friday an agreement was reached between the de facto regime in Honduras-- which took power in a military coup on June 28th -- and the elected president Mel Zelaya, for the restoration of democracy there.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in announcing what she called an "historic agreement, said: "I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that ... overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue." Hopefully this will turn out to be true.

But the ink was barely dry on the accord when leaders of the coup regime indicated that they had no intention of honoring it. Some of them clearly saw the agreement as just another delaying tactic. They have talked of postponing congressional approval of the accord until after the November 29th elections, or even voting not to restore Zelaya.

If the Honduran congress delays or rejects the restoration of Zelaya, they will be violating the clear intent of the accord. The agreement states: "The decision the National Congress adopts should establish a basis for achieving the social peace, political tranquility and democratic governability the society requires and the country needs." This and other language makes it clear that the negotiators -- who have the ability to deliver the votes in Congress -- agreed on Zelaya's restoration.

Furthermore, justice delayed here is justice denied: two-thirds of the legally allowed campaign period has already lapsed, under conditions of dictatorship that made free election campaigning impossible.

The Obama administration has itself been divided on what to do about the military overthrow of democracy in Honduras. Hence the mixed signals and vacillation from the very beginning, when the first statement from the White House failed to even condemn the coup.

Those in the Administration who think they can now wash their hands of the accord, and let the coup leaders turn their back on it, had better think twice. The Obama team has embarrassed itself enough by having to be pressured -- by the rest of the hemisphere -- to tell the coup government that Washington would not recognize the November 29 elections without prior restoration of Zelaya. Just a few weeks earlier, the Obama administration had blocked the Organization of American States from passing a resolution to this effect.

But now Washington's credibility is really on the line: the Obama team brokered this accord, and got a commitment from the coup leaders. If they go back on it, how much will the Obama administration's word be worth on anything else? Everyone knows that Washington has the ability to force the coup regime to comply: there are billions of dollars of its assets in the U.S. that could be frozen or seized; seventy percent of the country's exports go to the U.S. The coup regime has no international legitimacy and no standing to challenge the United States under international treaties, for any economic sanctions that might be invoked.

The Obama administration never used the effective tools at its disposal. Instead it dithered for months, finally cutting off a fraction of its aid to the coup government and revoking some visas. The administration refused to even declare that a military coup had taken place, since this would have required more cuts in foreign assistance. Most tellingly, Washington refused to denounce the massive human rights violations committed by the dictatorship. These included police beatings, illegal detention of thousands, closing of independent radio and television, suspension of civil rights and even some political murders. The crimes were denounced by all major human rights organizations, inside and outside of Honduras -- and many governments -- but the Obama administration maintained a deafening silence.

Based on the recent past, the coup leaders -- one of whom was forced to resign his post as foreign minister after calling President Obama "a plantation Negro" and other racial epithets -- might think they can safely ignore the agreement. But the rest of the hemisphere, and the Honduran people -- who have courageously resisted the coup from day one -- will not let them get away with it. No one will recognize the November elections if Zelaya is not restored promptly.

Last night U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon told CNN en Espanol that the United States plans to recognize the November 29 elections whether or not President Zelaya is restored. This would definitely put Washington on a collision course with the rest of the hemisphere, including Brazil. Furthermore, according to diplomats close to the negotiations, both Shannon and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had given assurances that the October 30th accord would bring Zelaya back to the presidency.

Shannon's statement to CNN prompted a letter from President Zelaya to Hillary Clinton, asking whether the U.S. government had changed its position on the coup d'etat in Honduras.

President Obama now has a choice: he can force the coup regime to honor the accord, or lose further credibility among governments in the hemisphere and the world.

This column was published by the Guardian Unlimited on November 4, 2009.

 

Comments

[calxex]

The situation in Honduras could be more than embarrassing for Obama. The drama being played out in Honduras is a microcosm of politics in Central and South America. As more and more Central and South America countries expand their democracies, Honduras seeks to limit and restrict participation of its citizens. What’s going on in Honduras is a military coup - a la 21st century corporatism. It’s the corporations and business class grabbing power to check Zelaya policies of opening up the society to greater participation by all Hondurans. The Coup put the brakes on all this - which in Central and South America the trend is to open society to greater participation by not just the wealthy and established power elites, but for all citizens. It’s not surprising that the countries of Central and South America have unanimously condemned this Coup and its policies AND reject any legitimacy for the Coup run elections coming up. Obama's choice of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is being tested. Will Clinton step up and side with real democracy or support these phony elections (and turn a blind eye to the political repression)? If this is the case, the Obama administration will have no legitimacy within the hemisphere and will be seen as supporting the Coup – same old banana republic politics and the patronizing relationship it was known for in the 20th century.

[Butterfly8]

As buttonz said, Weisbrot is spinning this beyond belief. What Zelaya signed was an agreement that IF congress accepts him back, he would be reinstated. Obviously, to anyone that has been following this matter closely knows, that would never happen. Restoring Zelaya now is ridiculous, and not recognizing a new government coming from elections would be even more ridiculous and very disappointing. The Hondurans are following their Constitution, whether the foreign governments like it or not. Now they are being stubborn, not wanting to recognize they were wrong all this time.

[buttonz]

Zelaya was funded and propped by a foreign power and then tried to bribe the courts and legislator to allow him to stay in power. He then tried to undermine their constitution. He has all but taken the country by means of a violent coup.

Zelaya, was removed CONSTITUTIONALLY. There is no evidence contradicting otherwise, so stop saying this was a coup which it wasn't. The only thing that was illegal was kicking him out of the country. Furthermore, this was done by the military and in the middle of the night (which is mentioned nowhere in the Honduras constitution to be illegal) to prevent Zelaya from inciting violence.

Mark is spinning this beyond belief.

[Tasies]

Art. 102 of the Honduras constitution is very clear on expatriation. Art. 5 of the Honduran Civil Participation Art. 5 is very clearly about the non-binding poll as well.

[party-of-one]

Once again our SoS took a highly visible, personal diplomatic role and fumbled. Have other SoS created more crises than they have resloved?

[placpje]

I don't know about other S0Ss, but this one certainly hasn't.

Glad to help you out with that "question".

[party-of-one]

did you say "certainly" hasn't"? thanks for your opinion. the news reports and commentary disagree with you, frequently. Hillary fumbles and then ducks for cover to let her President take the flack. Capable? effective? loyal? President Obama made a bad choice on SoS and he's seeing the fallout.

[buttonz]

Absolutely not. Hillary has been embarrassed by every major involvement she has been in.

When she traded in missile defense in Poland (for what we may never know...) the Russians immediately simulated a nuclear missile strike on Poland thus spiting Hillary's attempt to ease regional and diplomatic tensions.

She lost any influence we had on Israel by demanding an immediate freeze on settlements thus causing the Israelis to disregard us altogether. She made matters even worse and angered the Arab nations by trying to repair the damage by praising the Israelis for their good work in the West Bank.

She ruined relations with Honduras by imposing strict sanctions and trying to control their courts and legislators. The recent compromise is her only saving grace.

[hondugirl]

Ha, ha, ha. You sound pretty desperate Mark. By the way, I don't think Obama cares much about what the likes of Castro, Chavez, Correa, Morales and Ortega think. Regarding the hypothetical collision between Brazil-USA, I am starting to shake of fear for what the Brazil Giga Power will do to the US. Another point, since now you are starting to realize that Zelaya WON'T be restituted, you are trying another tactic. Punish the Honduran people by freezing their assets and impossing embargoes. This won't happen. I have a regret, it is that the CONSTITUTIONAL removal of Zelaya didn't happen during Bush tenure. By now he would be counting bricks in jail. Reminder to all, Honduras is not Venezuela. Sometimes you win, but today you lost.

[Tasies]

Another unscrupulously corrupt post that could have originated from the right wing Cuban sell out crowd in Miami. You've got another thing coming if you think Zelaya's backers are gonna let this roll. Retrogrades like Michelletti and his supporters and his anti-democratic apologists opened up a can of worms that their frail stomachs won't be able to handle. Thanks to the soulless right wing military junta revisionism we're gonna have ourselves another endless "guerilla" war in Latin America. Congratulations right war mongering apologists.