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One Week Out, McCain's Home State Is Blushing Pink
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Arizona Presidential Poll, Barack Obama, David Paleologos, John McCain, John McCain 2008, John McCain Arizona, John Mccain Popularity In Home State, John Mccain Presidential Campaign, Merrill Poll, Presidential Campaign 2008, Suffolk University Polling,
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This is a story I've been covering for Huffington Post for months. Arizonans have told me why they would never vote for John McCain, giving first-hand accounts of his terrible temper and expressing frustration over his lack of support for his own constituents.
A number of noted Arizona conservatives have told me off the record they'd never vote for the man because they've never considered him a true conservative. And the most prominent conservative family in the state just made it public: CC Goldwater, granddaughter of Barry Goldwater, threw her support behind Barack Obama in a piece for Huffington Post.
Now the rest of the nation is starting to pay attention. Two recent and well-publicized polls confirm what Arizonans have long known to be true: John McCain is not popular in his home state and may not carry it on election day.
The lead article in Sunday's Arizona Daily Star by political reporter Daniel Scarpinato, titled "Red, but how long?" chronicled what could be the significantly changing nature of Arizona's voting demographics. Scarpinato discusses two recent polls: "A statewide poll taken by Tucson-based Democratic pollsters Carol and Pete Zimmerman two weeks out from the election suggests McCain's lead over Obama falls within the margin of error: 43.5 percent to 41.5 percent, with 10 percent of likely Arizona voters undecided. Merrill is conducting a similar poll this weekend and predicts that the economic downturn will have narrowed McCain's advantage from the 8-percentage-point lead he enjoyed in a previous poll." Another soon to be released poll from Arizona State University in Phoenix supposedly shows similar data.
The evidence is big and small, anecdotal and hard copy. Jeff, an independent voter from California who just visited Arizona, echoed many casual observers when he remarked: "Just looking around, I'd never guess your senator is running for president. There are Obama bumper stickers and signs everywhere, and I haven't seen one for McCain. I find that amazing."
Huffington Post's OffTheBus team from Arizona just reported on the remarkable differences between the bustling Democratic offices and the eerily quiet Republican headquarters across the state.
The Daily Star also just conducted an interview with Arizona's junior senator, John Kyle, in which he expressed doubt about McCain's chances of prevailing on election day; the Arizona Daily Star has posted audio of the interview.
Tomorrow, exactly one week before Election Day, I'll be doing a follow up interview with professional pollster David Paleologos from Suffolk University in Boston. In our first interview three weeks ago, Paleologos said he wouldn't poll Arizona because of Suffolk's concentration on what he characterized as true swing states.
Recent evidence seems to suggest that Arizona now fits in that category. Look at the Real Clear Politics map below. One week out, the home state of the Republican presidential nominee is pink.
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Way to go AZ.... which I could be apart of that. I am an Obama supporter in Texas, it would be such an upset for McCain if it would just go pink. Everyone I know is voting for Obama. My daughter and I early voted for Obama!!!!!!
Even if we don't got blue as long as obama wins.
this is so great - so many red states jumping the blue wagon. It's so great that so many conservatives are beginning to see past their crooked noses and making the wise decision to vote for wonderful Obama. I'd love to see AZ, TX, GA, SC, WV, TN, KY, and more reds go blue... anything is possible. McBush is such a huge turnoff in all respects... people are finally waking up and smelling the coffee... as they say: Our lives are not a dress rehearsal.... this is the real thing.
Vote for real hope in OBAMA!!
Red is anger, war; blue is loyalty, faithfulness. A long time ago, blue was used as protection against witches, who supposedly dislike the color. Aren't we lucky TODAY.
Obama will win Arizona and the nation. McCain is a hateful, dishonorable man who no longer deserves public office.
VOTE!!!
Obama/Biden!
Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote!
Lets go AZ turn out the VOTE for Obama!!! THIS would be SO COOL!
Oh man oh man wouldn't that just be the bee's knees, taking Arizona! Holy guaccamole!
I live in Tucson, AZ and I can tell you that McCain has done NOTHING for us, our roads absolutely SUCK, the worst pot-holes I've ever seen, and I'm originally from the northeast, where pot-hole filled roads are a given. He should get the money back from Alaska for that bridge no-where and use it to fix things here in Arizona! He completely ignores us, until he wants something. I see Obama bumper stickers EVERYWHERE, I just hope we really do go blue this year!
Me too! I live in Phoenix and there are literally RED areas and BLUE areas, and they are NOT what or where you'd think. The EASTERN burbs of Phoenix seem to be pretty staunchly McCain. Especially because Mesa is dominated by Mormons. The Couthern parts of the city and the Northern and Central parts of the city are definitely Obama territory. Scottsdale however is GOPthuglican land, big time. But then Paradise Valley is mixed. Funny how that works, huh? I live three blocks from McCain and there are more and more and more Obama signs going up every day, now that I like!!!!
for what it's worth Flagstaff is Obama too. If the Hispanic vote turns out... McCain WILL lose. I am taking election day off work and shuttling people to the polls ALL.DAY. LONG!!!
Way to go...
'fired up and ready to vote!!
Don't get GIDDY yet. The Republicans will steal it. I can not STRESS this enough. Go out an VOTE.
Don't get GIDDY yet. The Republicans will steal it. I can not STRESS this enough. Go out an VOTE.
Don't get GIDDY yet. The Republicans will steal it. I can not STRESS this enough. Go out an VOTE.
Don't get GIDDY yet. The Republicans will steal it. I can not STRESS this enough. Go out an VOTE.
why tornado alley is red?
it's the neck color
niiice
Ah, but look at Iowa and Minnesota. They are in tornado alley also.
Go Arizona!
As an Arizonan, I am so glad to see the map show the BO Supporters! There are a lot of us out here! JM does not have a newspaper endorsement here and he does not have any mayoral support here! We got the GOLDWATER family on the side of the winning candidate! That is an endorsement to end all endorsements here!
Not getting over confident!
Win or lose, BO is the winner. He did not run a negative campaign, he stuck to the issues, he has a plan and he fought battles posed in the media, his own party (no names mentioned, but you know exactly who I am referring to), the JM camp, some of the meanest people in the world and he is still a class act.
Campaigning in the rain, on cable, text messaging, on the net, in person, on the phone, in big cities, snall towns, throw threats on his life,time away from his family. He is the true winner.
Me too! I live in Phoenix and there are literally RED areas and BLUE areas, and they are NOT what or where you'd think. The EASTERN burbs of Phoenix seem to be pretty staunchly McCain. Especially because Mesa is dominated by Mormons. The Couthern parts of the city and the Northern and Central parts of the city are definitely Obama territory. Scottsdale however is GOPthuglican land, big time. But then Paradise Valley is mixed. Funny how that works, huh? I live three blocks from McCain and there are more and more and more Obama signs going up every day, now that I like!!!!
for what it's worth Flagstaff is Obama too. If the Hispanic vote turns out... McCain WILL lose. I am taking election day off work and shuttling people to the polls ALL.DAY. LONG!!!
By the way this Saturday from 11-2PM, don't miss the Arizona Divorces McCain Rally, 16th and Missouri!!
I am so excited that I was called during this poll and able to register my preference for Obama!
That map is looking like the American flag, with more blue! I love it!
Even McCain's neighbors have witnessed his tantrums in the streets.
Ahhh, I feel cheated, because I haven't. All I've seen is how much he completely screws up traffic. But then I live three blocks from him. Funny story though.. for the longest time I noticed my Obama yard sign would disappear every time he was in town. It became increasingly annoying. After my tenth sign, I was getting Ticked! So I stapled a note to my sign, it read< Dear McCain NUT! This is my last Obama sign. If you steal this one I am going to paint my entire garage door.... PS: If I catch you, you're going to JAIL.>
that was the last sign I lost out of my front yard. That was back in June, they've long since stopped the sign stealing, more than half the neighborhood has them now. Ahh yes, progress!!!!!
I like that yard sign that says, "every time you steal my Obama sign, I give 8 dollars to the Obama campaign." LOL. I bet they don't steal anymore from that person.
Go blue, go blue, go blue, go blue!!!!
Please please please please!!!
John McCain needs to be in therapy, not in the White House. His sad insistence that we can achieve undefined "victory with honor" in Iraq is clearly born of his unresolved shame and baggage from Viet Nam. The lukewarm (and cooling) support for the local candidate in Arizona calls to mind the Obama endorsement recently published by Alaska's largest newspaper. They say familiarity breeds contempt; that certainly seems to be the case among those who know the GOP ticket best.
And remember, John McBush knows how to win wars.
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