It Depends on What Meaning of "Win" Wins

Q: Will Barack Obama win on Super Duper Tuesday?

A: Yes.

Q: So Hillary Clinton will lose on Tuesday?

A: No. She'll win, too.

Q: How can they both be winners?

A: It depends on whether the winner wins the most votes, the most kind of votes, the most delegates, the most states, or the best states.

Q: How can that be?

A: Start with the rules. In California, for example, you can win more delegates in some congressional districts with less votes than in other congressional districts.

Q: I don't get it.

A: Neither do the networks. That's why the campaigns will be spinning them like crazy.

Q: You mean the expectations game?

A: No, it's way wilder than that. You've got 24 separate state contests (plus American Samoa), but you've also got the aggregate big-picture shebang. In each state, as well as collectively, you've got popular votes, Democrats' votes, and independents' votes. You've got delegates by congressional district, at-large delegates, superdelegates, soft pledged delegates, soft unpledged delegates, hard delegates, and unpledged add-on delegates. You've got red states, blue states, bellwether states, and must-carry-in-November states. Both campaigns are thoroughly prepared to take any outcome on each of those dimensions and confect a convincing "win" out of a grab-bag of "upsets," "momentum," "patterns of success," "X states out of 24," "Y electoral votes out of 538," "Z percent of the popular [or independent] vote," "the highest percentage of delegates at stake," "the highest total delegate count [including or excluding Florida and Michigan]"...

Q: So will there or won't there be a real winner declared on Tuesday night?

A: If your definition of reality depends on the media, you're in deep trouble. The talking heads are already disagreeing with one another about what the benchmarks of victory should be. Neither candidate will reach the 2025 delegates needed for the nomination on Tuesday. Neither candidate is going to drop out on Wednesday. Proportional representation (something the Republicans, unsurprisingly, haven't come around to) means that neither side will credibly be able to claim a landslide. This mixed outcome is exactly what the networks want.

Q: Why's that?

A: Join us for the all-important Chesapeake state primaries on February 12! Stay with us for the make-or-break Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4! It all comes down to Montana and South Dakota on June 3! Get ready for D-Day in Denver! The first brokered convention in over half a century! Brought to you by Clean Coal ® - America's Fun & Friendly Power Source.

Follow Marty Kaplan on Twitter: www.twitter.com/martykaplan

Comments

[Sidewhispers]

"This outcome is exactly what the media(and Joe Sarborough) wants."
Seeing Mika Brzinski's head explode tomorrow morning on Morning Joe

[Pdubya]

the republicans will have a brokered convention.

www.ronpaul2008.com

[janmB]

IF we put another GREENHORN in the White House ---America will be the losers. OBAMA is more GREEN than white or black.
MAYBE 10 more years --he'll gain some experience if he gets on some committees where he can LEARN something.
We don't need a PRESIDENT who is training on the job.
HILLARY is the ONLY one qualified.
McCain is becoming senile and the press is giving him a PASS .

[clumberfeet]

Apparently many want to 'win' Bush's wars, debt and image in the world.

[OhgReaTone]

This election cycle defies traditional pundit/pollster reasoning. This is a time of American Revolt against the selfishness that has swept the country the past three decades.
Ohg
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/02/05/this-american-revolution-2008/

[RogerHWerner]

A while back Donna Brazile stated publicly that smoke filled rooms would be a better way to pick candidates than the hodge podge of nonsense that the primaries have become. What a waste of time and more importantly money. With what all the candidates spent on pre-preimary promotions coupled with what Fox and their advertisers pissed away on the Supper Bowl we could have made a serious dent in the national debt...but no we can't afford anything these days. In truth, we can afford what we want to pay for and few seem to want to spend money will it will do the most good for the country.

[Nutcase]

I don't see that it makes any difference who wins. With either candidate the people have already lost.

cognito ergo populistae

[raptor]

Isn't this like the popular vote versus the Electoral College? Try explaining the latter to a foreigner.

[Wiredwilly]

There will indeed be a Winner : Diebold
The winner will be President of a bankrupt Nation of debtors, selling their own Country to China to stay alive, controlled by rigged Voting Machines run by German Bankers operating out of Switzerland. If Americans don't demand Congress mandate paper trails on the Voting Machines NOW , we are insane.

[OldBlueDog]

Groobiecat says that Senator Obama is the only truely humble candidate. I disagree, I find it arrogant not humble to say that you will get your opponents votes, but she won't get yours. You also say he stays above politics as usual, is that what you call claiming to have passed a nuclear bill when it actually died in the Senate? Is that what you call it when he claims to not accept lobbyist money, but then we find out that one of his donors, John Rowe, is the chairman of THE NUCLEAR ENERGY INSTITUE, a lobbying group based in Washington?

[locust]

Keep in mind that 2,025 delegates are needed to choose the Democratic candidate.
There are 796 unelected superdelegates.
In November it'll be 'war hero' McInsane vs Mrs. BJ Clinton.
After this summer's inevitable int'l crises the war hero will ride in on his white horse to the white house.
But go ahead and vote. Do the dance.

[provoice]

At the moment there are NO candidates that suit all of my criteria for the restoration of America as a healthy and growing nation under the power of it's citizenry.

McCain has sold his soul to the Republican machine, Romney is too tied to the corporate interests, Hillary is too big a target because too many peole still believe too many of the lies we paid Ken Starr and Company $55 million to dream up... and Obama is an unproven entity with too much sympathy for the illegal invaders from the South.

At the moment, my only hope is that Obama wins the nomination and we can get the Congress to keep him from giving away the country to the illegals.

I believe we need someone who is a very powerful speaker and charismatic personality who can restore the world's faith in the U.S. and motivate the people to ride Congress hard to get things done.

This is our country and we have abdicated control to the propagandists, lobbyists and the military-industrial complex FAR too long.

It's time we took the country back and rode the Abramoffs, Kristols, Limbaughs, Coulters and Pat Robertsons out of Washington D.C. on a rail!

[pgate127]

People: Once the two parties stop staring at their own navels and begin to focus on their opponents, the real skirmish will begin. The Republicans will win the substance over style debate, and expose the current bright, shiny object as Barack Obauble.

I am a yellow dog Democrat. I want to take the White House back. But those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Read: George McGovern.

[drdave91]

Marty:

I REALLY miss you on the radio!

[sarnold49]

Gotta love the choices Obama has already made! and the GOP attack dogs are already starting!

ALLAN NAIRN: Well, Obama"s top adviser is Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski gave an interview to the French press a number of years ago where he boasted about the fact that it was he who created the whole Afghan jihadi movement, the movement that produced Osama bin Laden. And he was asked by the interviewer, "Well, don"t you think this might have had some bad consequences?" And Brzezinski replied, "Absolutely not. It was definitely worth it, because we were going after the Soviets. We were getting the Soviets." Another top Obama person"

AMY GOODMAN: I think his comment actually was, "What"s a few riled-up Muslims?" And this, that whole idea of blowback, the idea of arming, financing, training the Mujahideen in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, including Osama bin Laden, and then when they"re done with the Soviets, they set their sights, well, on the United States.

ALLAN NAIRN:

Another key Obama adviser, Anthony Lake, he was the main force behind the US invasion of Haiti in the mid-Clinton years during which they brought back Aristide essentially in political chains, pledged to support a World Bank/IMF overhaul of the economy, which resulted in an increase in malnutrition deaths among Haitians and set the stage for the current ongoing political disaster in Haiti.

Another Obama adviser, General Merrill McPeak, an Air Force man, who not long after the Dili massacre in East Timor in "91 that you and I survived, he was"I happened to see on Indonesian TV shortly after that"there was General McPeak overseeing the delivery to Indonesia of US fighter planes.

...

Another Obama adviser, Sarah Sewall, who heads a human rights center at Harvard and is a former Defense official, she wrote the introduction to General Petraeus"s Marine Corps/Army counterinsurgency handbook, the handbook that is now being used worldwide by US troops in various killing operations. That"s the Obama team.