It Depends on What Meaning of "Win" Wins

Q: Will Barack Obama win on Super Duper Tuesday?

A: Yes.

Q: So Hillary Clinton will lose on Tuesday?

A: No. She'll win, too.

Q: How can they both be winners?

A: It depends on whether the winner wins the most votes, the most kind of votes, the most delegates, the most states, or the best states.

Q: How can that be?

A: Start with the rules. In California, for example, you can win more delegates in some congressional districts with less votes than in other congressional districts.

Q: I don't get it.

A: Neither do the networks. That's why the campaigns will be spinning them like crazy.

Q: You mean the expectations game?

A: No, it's way wilder than that. You've got 24 separate state contests (plus American Samoa), but you've also got the aggregate big-picture shebang. In each state, as well as collectively, you've got popular votes, Democrats' votes, and independents' votes. You've got delegates by congressional district, at-large delegates, superdelegates, soft pledged delegates, soft unpledged delegates, hard delegates, and unpledged add-on delegates. You've got red states, blue states, bellwether states, and must-carry-in-November states. Both campaigns are thoroughly prepared to take any outcome on each of those dimensions and confect a convincing "win" out of a grab-bag of "upsets," "momentum," "patterns of success," "X states out of 24," "Y electoral votes out of 538," "Z percent of the popular [or independent] vote," "the highest percentage of delegates at stake," "the highest total delegate count [including or excluding Florida and Michigan]"...

Q: So will there or won't there be a real winner declared on Tuesday night?

A: If your definition of reality depends on the media, you're in deep trouble. The talking heads are already disagreeing with one another about what the benchmarks of victory should be. Neither candidate will reach the 2025 delegates needed for the nomination on Tuesday. Neither candidate is going to drop out on Wednesday. Proportional representation (something the Republicans, unsurprisingly, haven't come around to) means that neither side will credibly be able to claim a landslide. This mixed outcome is exactly what the networks want.

Q: Why's that?

A: Join us for the all-important Chesapeake state primaries on February 12! Stay with us for the make-or-break Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4! It all comes down to Montana and South Dakota on June 3! Get ready for D-Day in Denver! The first brokered convention in over half a century! Brought to you by Clean Coal ® - America's Fun & Friendly Power Source.

Follow Marty Kaplan on Twitter: www.twitter.com/martykaplan

Comments

[dragbunt]

Thanks for the wake up call, Marty. Still, I am hoping that a powerful showing from Barack will convince others of his "Electability" and will shove the Jesse Jackson comment down Bill's throat. A great showing would demonstate to the country that it's not a fairy tale. In Oz, Dorothy needed the flying monkeys. We are the flying monkeys and hopefully after Tuesday all Barack will need is a pail of water.

[SpaceyG]

Your problems solved! Don't watch MSM on Super Tuesday; watch Internet News Agency dot com. They've got folk there who will help you work through all the bs and clutter of delegates and elections as we know 'em.

[urbanrevolt]

Home-Run, Marty.



Everyone is upset with the White House, Senate and the congress... Yet the thing that polls lower than all of them is the MSM.

SO how do politicians seek to improve their image? The MSM, of course. No matter how low the public at large regards the MSM, They will listen to their PR people, who say the public "Loves them," and so will the politicians.

It's like fishing for a cure to Halitosis in a toilet.

[oldpotsmuggler]

To not have a brokered Convention would probably be a loss. The level of interest between now and November would be much harder to maintain if everything gets setteled quickly. Pump up the excitement, magnify the suspense, and keep the folks on the edge of their seats as long as possible. That way there will be less chance of the majority of voters having to start from scratch on October 1st to try to "get back up to speed on this election thing".