Meet the Purples! Decoding the DNA of the Swing Voter

Both Obama and McCain will make huge efforts on Election Day to turn out their bases -- the revved-up Reds and Blues. But it's still likely that the outcome will depend on the Purples, the swing voters in the middle.

Who are they? Working with Zogby International, the Norman Lear Center has now been in the field twice to find out. Our most recent survey of more than 3,000 people was conducted August 19-21. To figure out what color people were, we didn't rely on party identification or candidate preference; instead, we asked 42 questions about political values. Those answers reliably clumped into three groups -- Reds, Blues and Purples.

But we didn't just ask them about politics. We asked about what kind of entertainment they liked, how they spent their leisure time, where they got their news, and dozens of other questions about their appetites. What makes this poll cool -- and unique -- are the ways we can correlate political values to their lifestyles and cultural preferences.

So if you're a candidate and you want to reach Purples, where do you reach them, and what do they want to hear?

Finding Purples

• All politics is still local. Purples trust and rely on their local newspapers for news. Fifty-eight percent prefer their hometown paper, five times more than any national or major city daily. So in addition to making a local stop, push local surrogates to deliver your message.

• Stick with 30-second spots. TV was tops when Purples were asked what they like to do in their free time.

• NBC is still king. Purples most trust old pro Tom Brokaw, followed by Nightly News anchor Brian Williams.

• Don't preach to the choir if you are McCain. Few Purples tune in to Fox News.

• Top TV shows to buy ad time on: Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, 60 Minutes, CSI, Sunday Night Football, House, Two and a Half Men, Law & Order and Criminal Minds.

• Avoid reality shows. More than a 25% never watch them, and American Idol is the only one to reach double figures (11%.)

• Letterman and Leno give you the best bang for the buck on late night, but 25% of Purples are already asleep by then.

• The news/talk radio format is a good buy, as 41% of Purples listen in.

• Rock and roll will never die. Classic rock and oldies stations will reach 30% of Purples. Pop stations are up there at 28%.

• Over half of Purples either don't listen to national political talk radio or don't have a favorite talking head. Of those who do, 18% listen to Paul Harvey and 13% to Rush Limbaugh.

• All sports, all the time. You can reach more than 10% of Purples with just about any sports
on TV. Of course football is number one (54%), followed by baseball and basketball.

• Google them because 69% of Purples say that is their favorite site. Yahoo is at 51% and MSN at 39%.

• Get viral. YouTube is a favorite for 27% of Purples.

• They're surfing for news -- 72% say that is the information they look for online. Purples are also more likely to go online to find out about TV shows, movies, games, music, fashion, shopping, books and sports. But don't waste your time with blogs -- Purples don't really care about them.

• Celebrities won't help, as 87% of Purples say that their endorsements are a turn off or have
no impact.

• The Oprah exception. Twenty-nine percent say Ms.Winfrey is well-informed about the candidate she endorsed (Obama), and George Clooney clocked in at a respectable 26%.

• Be happy because they are. Eighty-three percent of Purples say they are very or somewhat happy about their personal life.

What to Say to Purples:

• Forget about wedge issues. Purples are worried about the economy. Forty-nine percent cite it as most important, compared to 3% who chose morality and values.

• The Iraq War isn't working. Seventy percent of Purples say it has not been worth the loss of American lives and 53% don't agree that it can be won.

• Go green. Four of five Purples say more resources are needed to protect the environment rather than saying government has gone too far.

• Promise that you will throw the bums out of Washington. Seventy percent of Purples blame leaders of the political parties for the worsened state of politics. Eighty percent say this country's on the wrong track.

• Corporate America is not their friend. A whopping 90% say corporations don't generally act in society's best interests. Also, 57% say government regulation of business is important.

• Praise the working mother. Eighty-seven percent of Purples said men and women should share household duties equally.

• Privatize education at your peril. Eighty percent of Purples say that investing in public schools is better than supporting private education.

• Don't demonize immigrants. Two-thirds of Purples say they are here for work, not a handout.

• Walk a tightrope on trade. Purples are closely split on whether workers need trade protections.

• Be tech savvy. Three quarters of Purples say new technology and the social and economic changes it brings are a good thing.

• Civil liberties and equality take a back seat to security and freedom. We found that 57% of Purples say security is more important than liberties, and 74% say freedom is to be more valued than equality.

• However, don't believe that Purples want us to shoot first and ask questions later. When asked to choose between using force or improving anti-American sentiment to combat terror, 85% of Purples choose the latter.

• Compassion is popular. It is our duty to help the less fortunate, say 81% of Purples.

• Be very careful talking about religion's role. Purples are evenly split as to whether religion should have a greater role, or be left out of public life.

• Don't talk about guns. Purples are again evenly split on whether it is appropriate to regulate
gun ownership.

• Cutting taxes is always a good thing for everybody. So say 66% of Purples.

• Are they listening? Over half of Purples say they're paying more attention to politics than four years ago.

If you want to find out about the Reds and Blues, too, or to read the details of how the survey was done, LearCenter.org has the info.

Comments

[Mildmannered]

Marty:

Great information. And reading "What to Say to Purples:" -- it looks more like the democratic platform than the republican. Anyone agree?

[refah]

""If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs .‰‰.‰‰. ," then you could be the next president."

As you might have suspected, William Kristol over at the Weekly Standard has it all figured out in his latest piece, "If...Which candidate will keep his head?" And speaking of heads, I was surprised to find out while I was over there that their heads really are as big as everyone says.

;^D

[Shake-A-Spear]

Too lazy to go back and read, but where did pollsters find these "undecideds"?. Questions seems OK and the precsion of percentages (28% for example) adds a bit of the aura of science to it all. But how did the "scientists" find the young-ish cell phone users who no longer own land phones? If they did personal interviews how did they make their sample selection?. My opinion is we'll know more about the polls well after the election is decided as pollsters do their post mortems, complicated as they will be by this year's unqiue considerations of race, sex, age, and Sarah Palin (ditziness). The Statisticians may be obliged to look again at "Standard Deviation" and , for the purposes of this year's calculations, regard it as "Non-Standard Deviation" and make adjustments as required. And if that last sentence doesn't quite make sense -- well neither does much of today's polling that deals in such gibberish.

[luziannagirl]

I'm from a Purple state. Keep it simple. Cut to the chase. Suggestions:

"Republicans: Is There ANYTHING Left to Break? Obama/Biden 08"

"First Step. Stop Digging. NO REPUBLICANS 08"
(instead of "NO", can just superimpose universal "ban" sign over the word REPUBLICANS)

"Buy Gold? Hoard Provisions? No...Vote Democrat 08"

And video clips showing aerial shots of extensive hurricane damage, flooded & destroyed homes, & Americans from Florida to TX left on their own for days and even weeks (months and years for New Orleans), stranded by a no-show FEMA and clueless and oblivious Administration and the simple voice-over: "When will Republicans leave YOU standing in the rain?"

and, my favorite, yet most unlikely:

"Are You Going To Let RICH TV Preachers Tell YOU What to Think and How to Vote?"

That could be accompanied by acowboy clad Marlboro-man looking fellow getting out of a muddy dented & rusty pickup, carrying coils of rope, headed into the background to pull his cattle out of the mud. Maybe, on a levee, no less.

It would be a visual allusion to the Biblical "ox in the ditch" . Trust me. They'll get it.

[Mildmannered]

"Republicans: Is There ANYTHING Left to Break? Obama/Biden 08"

That is a good one, luziannagirl.

[RepugsOut08]

After reading your article, it's hard for me to comprehend any of these people still being undecided. Obama is the only choice that makes any sense for these people.
While I think it's fine for them to wait until after the debates, I really don't know anything new they can get from McCain. He's more Bush, plain and simple. Maybe even worse, if such a thing is possible.
If you love Bush, then just say you're for McCain.
If you hate Bush, and you're still undecided, maybe you ought to take an inventory of you feelings about race. Just claiming you're worried about Obama's experience versus McCain's won't cut it. McCain has clearly shown signs of confusion and poor judgement this week, so he's no harbor from the storm.
Just be honest with yourself, undecideds. Is race the real factor, and, if so, are you really willing to allow the country and, consequently, your loved ones to flounder because you're worried about a black president?

[robbie]

"Purples" are not undecided voters. "Purples" are people who vote for Democrats or Republicans. Undecided voters, so-called, will be voting for one or the other, and are people who should probably not vote. This ain't damned American Idol.

[provgrays]

Whenever these biologicaly fickle voters appear on TV, my blood starts to boil.

They are so wimpy, self obsessed and easily manipulated. How do they dress themselves? A red shirt or a blue? What color socks?

They claim to have only started "paying attention" in the previous ten minutes. Do these people live underground? Pod people perhaps? The election will swing on voters with the attention spans of one year olds.

Maybe their candidate of choice should appear at the door to tuck them in at night before the three a.m. feeding. That would win their votes for sure.

[luziannagirl]

Some of them are people who for good reason feel betrayed and used by both parties, provgrays. It's not quite as simple as you might think.

The Democrats would do well to listen to and address, for once, some of the deep-seated, underlying issues people in the political middle, or even on the right, have been concerned about for decades. Start addressing fears underneath those hot-button issues, and see how these issues vanish into thin air.

Neither party has been doing that for years.

[biko24601]

I'm sorry, Luziannagirl -- but that seems like a real cop out to me. "Feel betrayed". Government is not your boyfriend, girlfriend or ex-lover

THIS is what's wrong with America: We are. After watching for almost two years now this never ending back and forth debate -- just last night on Larry King more incoherent conversations with those four little boxes filled with bloviating talking heads smugly screaming at each other -- I'm finally realizing that WE are the reason we're in this mess.

Last night on Bill Maher, his "conservative" guest made the most sense of anyone, as did Maher when he said what he always says: Americans are just too stupid....

Who is to blame: I'm to blame for having credit card debt. These so-called Purples and Swing Voters are to blame for not paying closer attention to politics up until now. What makes us exceptional as a country is that we have a participatory form of government that only works if WE THE PEOPLE participate. Far too few of us are actively engaged and too many are focused on People Magazine/OK/Star etc. al issues and then blame our "government" for betraying us like government is an episode of "The Hills".

At this point, we're getting everything we deserve. We're a big, spoiled baby of a country! Maybe Phil Gramm was right -- except for all the WRONG reasons. This is why Sarah Palin (Not John McCain) has a chance at winning this year. THIS IS INSANE!

[provgrays]

I'm happy to respond.

The problem with the GOP is that they use personalities, "narratives" and wholesale lies to win elections. Lying occurs on both sides, but the Palin narrative as "just a hockey Mom" does not qulaify her for high office.

The "deep seated underlying issues" you reference are surely abortion, guns, gays, immigration, race and "family values".These are inherently divisive issues that the right uses to divide and conquer. Witness McCain's recent race ad where he connects Obama to another black who he claims is Obama's economic advisor. Yet another lie. At the end of the ad is a helpless white woman and her fear of these black men is clearly implied. A dispicable and divisive tactic.

The Democrats are more consistent about putting real issues out there, as Obama has done time and again. My scorn for these wimpy undecideds is grounded in their inability to choose between an obvious good and clear harm.

[sphinxy]

"How do they dress themselves?" Ha! That says it all. Thanks, provgrays.

[GrannyForObama]

I live in Northeastern PA, am a white, working grandmother - the perfect purple demographic. I am strongly patriotic but not pro-war. I am for Senator Obama. I am fed up with the politics of the past 8 years, the damage that has been done to our country- economically, environmentally and internationally. My family is of primary importance to me but I am a former Republican who cannot tolerate the family values hypocrisy of this party any longer.

Here's an example: When Senator Biden came to visit, the Bishop refused to give him Communion because he was a Democrat and that is the party of pro-choice. Never mind that Senator Biden is a wonderful family man and devout practicing Catholic. On the other hand, nothing was said about Senator McCain who left his first wife while she was ill. Apparently being a Democrat is a bigger sin than leaving your wife. I wasn't aware that "Thou Shall Not Be a Democrat" was on the tablet that Moses received on Sinai.

Finally, I don't like being "wrapped up in a neat little package and tied up with string". We have a pick-up, we don't own guns. I eat out at McDonald's and Wendy's sometimes but I don't like Nascar. My faith and community are important to me. But I feel blessed to live in a country where everyone can make their own choice about these things. And no one is going to make my choice for me.

[rock2casbah]

Great comment GrannyForObama!!

You exemplify the msg. Obama has said ever since his great speech in 2004. Americans are not Red states, or Blue states, we are the United States of America.

Our soldiers are not dying under a flag of Red state or Blue state they are fighting and dying under a flag of the United States. Divide and conquer was the only strategy the Repubs have ever used successfully against Americans to get them to vote against their own country's best interest.

This year Enough!! Obama Biden 2008

[ConstitutionCrusader]

Smart lady! I wish My gran had as good a grip of the issues as you do!

[provgrays]

The bishop refused communion to Obama based on his political beliefs?

Do his mitered superiors know about this?

[Mildmannered]

Obama is a fantastic family man.

[rock2casbah]

Zogby is kind of a questionable pollster nowadays.

[Liberoservative]

Interesting analysis....

I will add one thing.... about the Reds...

AOL is for reds

[rock2casbah]

Definitiely. But it seems everyone knows that. Notice everyone knows about Fox and surf the net for information. That spells doom for McCain. They know about all these repeated lies and that the MSM is pretty much washed up.

It looks like they are really Blue instead of purple. The Palin religious zealotry and McCains attachements with the proven 9 percent voting record with Bush. Palins lies about everything and the fact that they even keep repeating it over and over, even though it has been debunked is not going to sit well with them at all. The lies on Obama that they continuosly spew is not going to play.

So in essence they are up a creek. They are trying to coop Obama's msg, but eerything proves to the contrary.

There's even more to come too with Palin and McCain since he won't stop lying.

[rock2casbah]

90 percent typo.

90 percent voting record with Bush.

[SeaBlood]

This is rather good news if true. It would mean the average voter is less of an oaf than was thought. A reprieve for American democracy!

[onlinesavant]

Said it before. Will say it again. Registered Democrats. 42 million. Registered republicans. 31 million. If it's a battle of "the bases", then I definitely like the Democrat's chances. Its not the Democrats trying to push measures constantly to suppress the vote in state after state. Its the republicans. Why is that? HHMMMM???

[BobHiggins]

If you write, talk or think about about politics or this election, print this article and keep it close at hand.

That's it, I have spoken.

[Leah McElrath Renna - Huffpost Blogger]

Great information, Marty - thank you for sharing it here.

[Bluedanube]

Zogby is a disgrace. Would like to see the new Congress ban all political polling 4 months before an election. Let the people do a little legwork on their own rather than relying on polls that are fatally flawed to decide for them who they should be voting for.

[rock2casbah]

Great idea. That was in my letters to the editor and MSM last week. That

#1 No more lies, I didn't want to see or hear one more lying McCain ad shown free of charge all over the newscasts, unless it was to note that it was all lies.

and

#2. Shut up about those flawed and skewed polls. Spouting these statistics ad nauseum on newscasts is like giving dangerous prescription drugs without instructions or warning stickers. Without giving the party iding, methodology it is nothing but poison.