Texas Time

We've been waiting for y'all.

Like the great big kid in the back of the classroom who has gotten used to being overlooked, Texas has not had a chance to make a difference in the presidential primaries for decades. This year, suddenly, we're hot stuff. Our primary on March 4th is going to mean something -- maybe everything -- in the Democratic race.

And in a campaign where voters are already defying some of the old demographic breakdowns, Texas promises to give the pundits and campaign planners a run for their money, beginning with the most basic characterizations.

Texas is not the South. It is not the West. It is not the Southwest.

Texas is all those things, a heady blend of magnolia blossoms and masa harina; a place big enough and complicated enough to treasure both the Alamo and the dreams of millions whose lives began in Mexico. It has memorials to Civil War heroes and civil rights legends, border towns without running water and the latest thing from Barney's.

Texas is home to both big oil and big hair; sometimes to big, oily hair.

It is a warm, fun-loving, forgiving state, the kind of place where the vice-president can shoot someone in the face and the victim apologizes.

Clearly, it isn't easy to embarrass Texas. But it appears George W. Bush has finally done it. In a stark change from the public's attitude here a few years ago, now there are bumper stickers on family cars in grocery store parking lots that proclaim "Bush wasn't born here" and "George W. Bush is a failure."

The rest of the country may figuratively turn disgraced politicians into piñatas, but in Texas, the transformation is literal. In fact, a party store in Austin will custom-make a George W. Bush piñata for you for only 23 dollars. Don't ask how I know this.

For Republican candidates in Texas, the president's precipitous fall from favor has made a particularly big splat. In 2006, voters in Dallas rejected every contested Republican officeholder on the ballot.

And if the GOP primary turnout on March 4th is low, it will be due to a combination of this Bush fatigue and the fact that the race is, as usual for Texans, already decided. It won't be because Rush Limbaugh doesn't like the leading candidate or because Romney decided to take his wallet and go home. It's that this year is not much fun for former Bush voters. Many Texas Republicans are no longer enjoying the party.

For those who hang around and actually vote in the primary, Huckabee will be attractive. He is witty and engaging, relatively gentle on immigration and religious as hell. I don't want to be accused of hitting below the Bible Belt on this, but the creation of the earth is still a source of argument among some Texans. The ground here may have given up some of the world's best specimens of dinosaur fossils, but state school officials are still under siege by parents who believe that the earth is only a few thousand years old and that carbon dating means taking a girlfriend to the Texas A and M bonfire.

McCain will probably do better in Texas than in other conservative parts of the country. The very elements of McCain's candidacy and personality that have conservatives and the religious right so righteously peeved at him will actually play well for him here. Most Texans, including the Republican governor, don't want a wall separating us from Mexico. And any hothead who uses the "F" word not only won't be rejected, he is gonna fit right in.

While the state's favorite (step)son Ron Paul probably won't be much of a factor in the primary, many Texans feel a perverse pride in his success. Paul is a natural outgrowth of Texas's deep libertarian streak, the only person in the Republican party with the guts to stand on stage in every debate and in a nasal twang commit a kind of blasphemy by constantly and eloquently criticizing the war and the president who put us there.

The Democratic race is going to be more complicated and more unpredictable because both candidates have huge built-in constituencies, good organizations and giddy support. Texas Democrats are almost hysterical at the heart-pounding possibility that the rest of the country will at long last pay attention to what they think. In addition to all that, no one knows how the hell the delegate count is actually going to work.

In typical Texas contrarian fashion, the primary rules read like a DNA chart. On the Democratic side, 228 delegates are up for grabs. But it's not that simple.

The state has both a primary and a caucus -- on the same day. And you can't caucus unless you voted in the primary. On primary night, 126 delegates will be determined based on voting results in each Senate district.

The number of delegates in each district is based on how many Democrats voted in the last two general elections in that district. Got that? Well, there's more.

The selection of another 67 delegates will begin at the caucuses that night and culminate at the state convention in June. The remaining 35 delegates are some kind of unique political life form that will evolve into actual delegates at the National Convention later that summer.

With rules like this, we may not know the division of Texas delegates until sometime after the new President is sworn in. Now that the state finally has its moment in the spotlight, it appears we will slowly drag our rear ends across the stage and reveal our delegate counts only when we are good and ready.

But as Democratic campaign workers and organizers flood the state in the next few weeks, they will find a pool of voters ready to rumble. Texans are ready for their close-up.

The candidates are already familiar faces. Barack Obama has been here raising money and making friends since long before he announced his candidacy. Hillary Clinton actually lived in Austin in 1972 while working for George McGovern. She knows the state and has racked up an impressive series of endorsements.

Hillary seems to be ahead in early polling. Texans, despite the state's conservative reputation, have never had any discomfort with women taking the reins. Texas women have been changing the world for a long time.

That creates a special challenge for Hillary Clinton.

Down here, she will have to live with the ghosts of Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, Molly Ivins and Lady Bird Johnson. She will have to prove to voters that she has more in common with these iconic Texas political figures than with Ma Ferguson, the state's first female governor. Ferguson took over in 1925, several years after her husband was run out of office.

Actually, Hillary Clinton is nothing like Ma Ferguson. They have nothing but body parts in common. Still, by making that comparison, I get the chance to use a hilarious quote attributed to Ferguson during a debate on the use of Spanish in Texas public schools. She exhorted the state to require English, saying, "If English was good enough for Jesus Christ, then it is good enough for the children of Texas."

Which brings up another point. Texans expect candidates to be entertaining. They can be funny like Ann Richards, a charming rogue like Charlie Wilson, or personable like George W. Bush used to be.

Obama has that -- and something more. For Texans old enough to remember, he recalls Barbara Jordan -- not because of race, but because of the power of the spoken word. Decades ago in her campaigns for Congress, in small towns and large cities, in front of crowds who gathered at courthouses and on street corners, she became a political legend by reminding people of why they loved their country. She led old men in sweat-stained cowboy hats to weep openly at the beauty of the Constitution, the power of the American people, the depth of our belief in our own inherent decency.

Texans are still like that. They still like good speeches. They still like to cry in public. And they will always love politics.

To win in Texas, Democrat or Republican, there is really only one rule. Don't be dull. We certainly won't.

Comments

[marcusdean]

Speaking of Molly Ivins. Before she passed, she wrote why she would not vote for Hillary. See it here: www.commondreams.org/views06/0120-30.htm

[paco833]

Mary,

Havent you and Dan casued ENOUGH trouble? Go sit down on the couch and relax. Your train has left the station.

[thedave25]

clearly you are NOT a Texan... great summary of the way Texans feel right now !

[melonman]

Correction, they unfortunately DIDN'T cause enough trouble. If they had, not even you could make believe that shrub isn't the lying, pampered chicken hawk Mary and Dan exposed.

On the up side, shrub's train will be leaving the station soon, just not soon enough.

[ginamc]

Amen, paco.

[MsLiz]

First time poster. Troll?

[justus949]

Thank you, Mary, beautifully put!

[FirstAve]

Hillary Clinton can not win the general election. First, she lies about her vote for the war. She is lying her way into the nomination the same way Bush lied us into war. It is unacceptable to those of us paying attention and we will never, ever, vote fopr her. I would rather be lied to by a republican than to vote for a liar from my own party.

Second, because the remaining large state's delegates, (Penn, Ohio, Texas) are going to be divided in half - now that Obama has time to introduce himself properly - his winning all the smaller states coming up, will give him the most delegates that have been "voted" for. Clinton's only chance is to steal it with super-delegates. This will show the rest of the world what I already know about her.

She can not win the general election.

[mmerose]

Hello, sister! I have gone through that Iraq vote in so many ways, and the bottom line is, it only all makes sense if the lady is just plain lying. But, I have noticed that Hillary true believers are a lot like GW Bush true believers: at the slightest quibble, they shut down conscious thought and blurt out, oh, you're just a Hillary-hater. Sure reminds me of the old days: "Boy, those liberals just hate Bush because they're mean, for no reason." But is anybody in the Democratic Party adding you and me to the crackpot right never-Hillary voters? If I go vote for some reason, I'll be writing in Barbara Lee. Sad.

[rwilliams1961]

Hillary will never do this, ambition being what it is and all. But this is what I wish she would do for the Democratic party's sake, the nation's sake, and for her own sake.

Hillary should, after Texas and Ohio and despite delegate count, withdraw from the race, citing party unity as her reason. She should further state that she will support Obama into and beyond November. What this would accomplish:

1. It would get the party lined up behind the one candidate who can bring in the most new Democratic voters and who has the best chance to beat McCain.

2. It would set her up as a goddess in the party. She would become the de facto party leader for the rest of her life.

3. It would get rid of the weaknesses she brings to the November election, including: Bill; race baiting; and the huge anti-Hillary Republican turnout that will, in the end, relegate her to also-ran status.

[rwe]

I see by your bio and profile that I was wrong and of course everything CBS and Dan did was completely unbiased and objective , even to the forged docs

[saintswriter]

Who gave the docs to Dan? How were they able to "discover" they were forged immediately? The content of those doc (that GWB went AWOL) was hushed forever. And the once aggresive media became overly cautious - only reporting what Bush/Cheney/Rove wanted reported. And suddenly FOX News became "a credible news source". Very clever Rovian dirty trick.

[Sylvarose]

You know with all do respect...I'm sick of Texas influence on politics.

Undoubtedly there have been great Texans and great Texan women. I loved Molly Ivans...but after 8 years of Bush and his cronies...after 8 years of the 2nd Whitehouse down in Crawfordsville...I don't care to hear what Texas has to say for a good long time.

You can say Bush isn't your son all you want...but boy wouldn't know it early on (maybe sans Austin) except for a handful of sane folks. Am I bitter? Hell yes. Am I being unfair? Probably.

Am I some cloistered New England liberal. No. I'm out here in the mid-west who has constantly shook my head at the cowboy political idiots of Tom Delay and George W. Bush.

As far as I'm concerned...it's time to take your village idiot back and focus on keeping him and his friends out of trouble.

sr

[huffnpuffn]

Bush, born in Connecticut. Schooled at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, Yale and Harvard. Financed by Saudi Arabia. Described as a "windshield cowboy" by el presidente Vicente Fox.

He is not a product of Texas. He is a product of dynastic wealth and privilege.

[ljsfolly]

Now why didn't Texas tell the whole damn country before they voted on him as if he was who he said he was? When he was playing the Texas cowboy on a ranch he bought before his run for govn'r he was a Texas man and you were proud of it. He ran soo many businesses to the ground on daddy and friends money and only made money on the baseball team when he had little to do with it. When Cindy came to protest the war there was little support for her and too much for him. Bush has been as phoney as a three dollar bill with daddy bush on it and still Texas loved him. What changed it?

[Sylvarose]

How about Tom Delay? How did Bush get to be Governor without local good old boy support? You can't sit there and tell me that Texas hasn't had an influence on national politics and expect me to keep a straight face!

C'mon!

No...as one poster put...Texas needs to do a big Mea Culpa.

But...maybe I am being a hypocrite. We may no longer have Dan Quayle embarrassing us (doesn't even live in the state any more Yeee Haaa!) but some how we have enough buffoons to keep Mike "Baghdad's just like an IN farmer's market" Pence in office.

sr

[westview]

Also called a "windshield cowboy" by his wife Laura who even defined it to elemetary school kids she was visiting.

[mouselion]

No, you've heard from the Power Machinery, not the populous voice of Texans. Not to say they're all liberal, but last time I was there, I did hear open criticism of the Iraq war and Bush (from people whose appearance made me look twice at who was doing the speaking).

[mouselion]

...populist voice of Texans.

[BBackSoon]

One of my favorite Bumper Stickers: Don’t mess with Texas! (It isn’t nice to pick on the slow kid!)

Oh I kid the State. The number of times I have visited the Great State of Texas I have met great people and had a fine time. But I will say that you certainly are proud of your state to the point of ridicule. As Lyle Lovett said “That’s right you not from Texas.”

[Counterglow]

Like the 6'6" Texan who was on a fishing trip in Northern Ontario. It's only the end of May, so it's a little chillier than he'd been counting on. He goes into a Hudson's Bay store and walks up to a cute little clerk and says to her, "Howdy, Miss. Where might I be able to find a coat big enough to fit a man my size? I'm a Texan. Our state is big and our men are big."

The girl looks him up and down while he poses a bit, then says, "Boys' Wear, Second Floor".

[stupidme]

Governors Bush and Bush, uhmmmmmm ... Texas needs to be returned to Mexico. And as good measure can we send Florida back with it?

[kburlz]

I second this motion.

[TxWonderWoman]

Thank You Mary. I moved to Austin from Los Angeles 2 year ago. I'm as Blue as a Democrat can get. Austin is FABULOUS! I lived in West Hollywood for 27 years and all my friends there can't believe that I moved to Texas. Well I gotta tell you. Texas Democrats know how to be Democrats. They are not apologetic wimps here like I have seen elsewhere. When i first got here, I could not believe that the bumper sticker i saw most often was "Bush is a punk ass chump". I never saw that in Los Angeles. I even saw a hard hat construction worker with a bumper sticker that said "cut and run!". I'm glad the national Dems are coming here too. Maybe we can teach them a thing or two.

[PoliticalAnimal]

Please! No more Texas! The world can't take it!

[MsLiz]

Political Animal: Pull up that tail and check the difference. Can't you tell a Democrat from a Republican?

[Geoffreys]

As a Dallasite, my vote may not count for much in Presidential elections (but then who knows given the way we booted out the local repubs) but I am seriously looking forward to voting in a primary that counts!!

You did a wonderful job capturing the spirit of Texas and the excitement simmering here over not being written off as a footnote in yet another national election.

[MsLiz]

Exactly the way I felt in AlObama this past Tuesday! I wish I could feel that way in November.

[toronto]

This Canuck likes the way you write and appreciates the general likeability of Texans. However, what is puzzling to many Canadians and Europeans who pass through Houston's airport is why the customs officials are so lacking in civility. As a result, many travelers to Mexico are choosing to avoid GHW Bush Airport at all costs. Maybe if they changed the name to Molly Ivins International the place would benefit.

[mommadona]

"For Texans old enough to remember, he recalls Barbara Jordan -- not because of race, but because of the power of the spoken word. Decades ago in her campaigns for Congress, in small towns and large cities, in front of crowds who gathered at courthouses and on street corners, she became a political legend by reminding people of why they loved their country. She led old men in sweat-stained cowboy hats to weep openly at the beauty of the Constitution, the power of the American people, the depth of our belief in our own inherent decency."

Barbara Jordan was one of my heroes.

But, to tell you the truth, we still can't forgive Texas for voting in BOTH Bushes and sheltering them and allowing them "Business as Usual" which has ruined this country.

We still can't forgive Texas for refusing to be a state within the United States and allowing Tom Delay fascist free-reign by funding his nasty little butt and not following through with legal challenges to his obviously illegal Mayberry Mafia transactions..

Sorry, but Texas needs to perform one big ol' MEA CULPA to the rest of the United States and get over itself.

Besides - most of the money in Texas is the House of Saud's....now, if THAT isn't a travesty, I don't know what would be.

[Geoffreys]

Who is this 'we' of which you speak? Those of us that live in Texas know there is much more to our State than the stereotypes about us perpetuated on the coasts. Contrary to popular belief, there are rather large liberal enclaves in Texas which have been unfortunately been effectively sidelined but exist nonetheless.

Have you never heard of people like Molly Ivins or Ann Richards? 'Texas' didn't do anything to 'us'. I don't know what State you're from, but I bet I could cherry pick a list of evil politicians from your state too.

[clevelandtocali]

It was the Texas AG who began and pursued the investigation on Tom DeLay that eventually led to his resignation, so bite me.

[maddog2112]

Texas is a vast waistland we would all be better without. Texas contributed plenty to the last 2 elections. Thanks again for George Bush! I hope when they build their wall they put Texas on the other side of it.

[zizyphus]

Vast "waistland"- I love it!

[robivecchi]

I think you mean: "thanks again [New England] for George Bush." That's where that carpetbagging liar is from. Texas didn't make him president - there were two NATIONAL elections that did.

[dbusch72]

GO OBAMA!!!!!!