Obama Can Win... by Winning

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There's lots of agonizing going on about what happens to the superdelegates. Should they wait until the Democratic convention to cast their votes or should they meet earlier in some kind of confab to get this thing over with earlier? This is leaving aside the question of how to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. But in all of this something has forgotten. Obama can win by... winning.

It sounds sort of obvious but if he can somehow overcome the Clinton advantage in Pennsylvania, this thing will be over. Likewise if he streaks through the final states, he will be the nominee and all the anxiety will be for naught. Obama himself wisely departed from the line of his surrogates like Chris Dodd and Pat Leahy that Clinton should get out of the race. You can't insist that your opponent quit. You have to beat them. It seems somehow forgotten in recent coverage that Obama can still do that. Winning will settle it.

Three weeks is plenty of time to close the gap in Pennsylvania and while the Keystone state seems better for Clinton -- more working class, no indies or Republicans can vote in the primary -- it's not an impossible climb for Obama. Should he lose there, he can crush her in most of the remaining states. Then this thing is done. And it will have been done properly.

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Comments

[moda31]

he already IS winning

[jazzman]

I agree. This has not played itself out. Hillary is in her strong states. These are the states she lined up in the beginning of her campaign and where she has the backing of the big Democratic machines. She's not going to quit now but it won't be long after when she will run smack dab into reality again and when she must contest in states haven't been put in her pocket by the power brokers and establishment Dems. But if Obama puts a big dent in her leads here, I think she's toast.

[AnninCA]

Precisely right.

He has to actually win.

[moodpost]

I think it is realistic to expect about a 9% victory for HRC, which isn't nearly enough. I don't yet believe the polls that have Obama taking the lead. I've seen that phenomenon before. That is at least 10% less than HRC needs. So just hang in there, keep giving Obama $ to continue campaigning, and everything will settle itself out.

[IndyStacey]

Obama IS winning and will continue to do so. HRC must win by large margins to come even close to catching up with him.

[theMightyT]

No worries Ann, after not even a week in PA Clinton's 20+ point lead is pretty much gone... only a matter of time before Obama passes her by there and everywhere else...

[aesova]

Realistically, Clinton needs a margin of at least 20% in the remaining states to catch up.

A Clinton win with a margin of anything less than 20% - especially in a Clinton "safe" state such as PA - is a actually a win for Obama. Anything less just makes the remaining contests that much more difficult, and that much more crucial, for the Clinton campaign.