The Bradley Effect? No Chance

Let me make a prediction: The polls will close a bit in the next few days. And then, on Election Day, Senator Obama will win by more than the polls show.

Here's another prediction: Undecideds - about 7% of the electorate still - will break for Obama. Why? Because this election has been about whether or not people feel comfortable with Senator Obama. And here's the news: people are feeling comfortable with Obama. They feel more comfortable with Obama than they do with McCain and Sarah Palin.

Come Tuesday, people on the fence will decide, "I actually do feel okay with this guy."

I cannot tell you how many Democrats have said to me, "Yeah, he's ahead now, but..."

People: There is no but. There are crazies out there, yes. I did a debate the other night as an Obama surrogate, and you cannot imagine what I encountered. But (well, there is a but) those people are McCain supporters and would be McCain supporters no matter what.

I do not believe people are hiding their vote. Maybe a few, sure, but not enough that it will make any sort of difference.

How do I know this? How can I be so sure? Like McCain, I go with my gut.

You may say I'm crazy, but folks, look up my record: I pushed Joe Biden for VP in May. I said there would be no "October Surprise" a few weeks ago.

I'm two for two.

If I'm wrong on this one, I know you'll let me know - but I'm not going to be wrong. The Obama victory on Tuesday is going to be bigger than the polls suggest.

Democrats, it is okay to say we are going to win. You know, when you watch a baseball game and a pitcher has a no-hitter, at about the seventh inning, no one in the dugout talks to the pitcher, because they do not want to jinx him. That's the Democrats right now - they don't even want to talk to each other about winning.

Well, the Democrats are going to win. It's going to be a big victory. It's going to be great. Enjoy this time - many of us have not been alive for a moment like this.

Comments

[dcrinaz]

There will be a "reverse Bradley effect" this year.

The "Bradley effect," declares that some White voters, while publicly supporting an African American candidate, will then vote against him in the privacy of the voting booth because said voters are secretly racist. However, this year, I think we will see a "reverse Bradley effect" because our country has largely learned to reject racism. Most agree with Dr. MLK that we should judge a man by the content of his character and not the color of his skin.

Nonetheless, there still are parts of this country that resist this morally correct message. This can be a problem for non-racist White voters living in such areas. They know to vote against a man because he is Black is plain wrong. However, they fear ridicule or retaliation if they admit their support for Sen. Obama. They know that Republicans have screwed up the country and that Sen. Obama is the change we need. They want to do the right thing and vote for Sen. Obama, knowing that he is the best man for the job, but can't say so. But they can still vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth.

So I believe that many of my White brothers and sisters will vote for Sen. Obama. They just may not be able to publicly say so. They know he's right for the United States and will do their duty in their secret ballot.

[G-guy]

For any who are interested, and able to watch......
The documentary Hacking Democracy" is on today, 3:30 eastern time on HBO.

If you can, check this out, if you have not seen it .

Very interesting stuff.........

[G-guy]

One thing I have learned-especially in elections........

Is never assume anything, in this day and age.
I'm very concerned about the bradley effect.
I'm concerned about any who could be "undecided", at this point.
I'm really concerned about the Diebold electronic voting machines,
which are made by a Republican-based company.
Have you seen the documentary, "Hacking Democracy"? Diebold is VERY shady.
As a white male voting for Obama, and familiar with all republican methods of fraud.....
Take nothing for granted in this election. All we can do is vote, and wait for the results.

[Liberalforsure]

I totally agree that it will be a landslide for Obama and that mccain will lose in a crushing way. At least that is my hope.

[djarvis]

I believe you are right, but I don't encourage any Democrat to be overconfident. We still need to make sure everyone gets out to vote in order to make an Obama victory a reality.

[JanaK63]

From your mouth to God's ear...I am most baffled by the huge amount of racism in the 21st century. I had hoped we had gotten past this ugliness, but obviously, we have not. Without that factor, I believe Obama would be leading by 20-25% right now.

I have always thought the polls were flawed due to the simple fact that most of them don't include any cell phone numbers, which the majority of new voters (age 18-25) rely on exclusively. I also have a hard time believing these close numbers, when Bush nearly squeaked by both Gore and Kerry, and neither of them had this unbelievable momentum or support that has been seen for Senator Obama.

[bill76]

The moment they call Virginia for Obama, that's when I'll start believing it can happen, and not a moment before.

[rasputin999]

NOW! is the winter of our discontent. When goodly yoemen, aye and fair wenches, lie abed unable to sleep. Break, break election day, and remove the dark fear that dost fill my heart with dread and anxiety. What have the fates in store, aye, that is the question, will the thane of Arazona lay claim to the crown? Or will Othello change the destiny of mankind and reign in the office which is oval. Beware the ancient Thane McCain when he greets you as "Friend" The serpent is coiled in his bosum and evil and black is his heart. The dame Palin dances on the blasted heath at night, hubble-bubble-toil and trouble-you betcha!. Flow swiftly yea sands of time, for my heart is indeed troubled and worry doth caress my brow. Let Joe the jester, frolic with cape and hose. Let the wily FOX sceam and dream. The prize is ours, hold hard and cry "Obama and-America" Once more on to the voting boots dear friends, once more and the Bush will fold his tent and slip off into the darkness of history, In other words--enough-already!.

[Freda from Scotland]

Yes, I know it is difficult to count our chickens before they have hatched but lets put our cards on the table - all Americans, well mostly all, are decent human beings who have had to live through the most difficult 8 years ever experienced in your country. You have been lied to, deceived over the war and your country, like ours, is heading for recession. This has all been under the Bush watch, supervised by Senator McCain. He is as guilty as President Bush. You are very intelligent people with long memories and who in their right mind would vote for a man ,and his lady accomplice, based on the same old policies as those of Bush. You now have hope that you didnt have before so get out there and vote early for our friend Senator Obama. We in Scotland adore him too and look forward to America getting back respect from the world. That respect was lost by President Bush with Senator McCain's help - when you tell lies at that level then you have to pay the price. With a President Obama your country will get back the respect it deserves and your friends will all be there for you. Just cannot wait until Tuesday, I too will stay up all night to watch this historic occasion. God bless you all.

[w&cheneysuck]

Thanks Freda! You are an honorary American! DK

[Kerris]

In a British newspaper, I just read a cogent analysis of voter turn-out in places where there is early voting -- I am seriously troubled.

What they found -- people under 35, a group that has largely registered Dem and voiced mass approval of Obama, are not showing up to the polls (yet). All other groups that are identified as strong Obama supporters have shown up at the polls in proportionate numbers.

Listen. People. No point in volunteering or cheering, donating, blogging, speechifying or showing up at rallies.... if you are not going to vote!

C'mon get those thumbs out and get to the polls!

[XME]

Call me superstitious, but it's not OK to say we're going to win!!

[uheardme]

Right

[AdamAbeles]

You are going to see a landslide my friends. Obama by 20.

[uheardme]

Stop it.

[gretchenart]

I think the Bradley Effect was a hoax in the first place to cover up vote flipping, vote suppression, etc. and force the election to come out in favor of Bradley's opponent! It is easier to steal the vote if the polls are "close" than if there is a clear landslide coming!!

[IndyReader]

I've read/heard recently that it wasn't whites who said they'd vote for him and didn't, but blacks who didn't come out and vote for him at all. If that's true it's very sad, bu that was a whole generation ago.

[Jason404]

I'm looking for the best pub to go to in London on the 5th, that has a lot of Americans, to celebrate. There seem to be various events around the place, with a wide range of ticket prices.

Its also Guy Fawkes night, which is out annual fireworks celebration, so it should be a great party.

[mymic1]

co to clapham and pick any one!

[Krikkit]

I'm with you on this one. If anything, there's probably going to be a bunch of Republicans voting for Obama in secret after publicly proclaiming that they would not.

Need a snappy phrase for that. Reverse Bradley doesn't quite capture it. How 'bout "The Obamican Reversal"?

[Franb]

I completely agree. If Obama doesn't get at least 375 EV, I will be surprised. He's on track for 400/538.

The early voting in Georgia is currently 35-36% African American even though they only make up 29% of the electorate, and tend to vote on only 1 out of 2 occasions. I've seen data showing that of those early voting in Ga and NC. nearly half are either firts time voters or have not voted in primaries.

Interestingly., despite the massive advantages numerically that Obama is getting in early voting and all this implies in his campaign against voter suppression, voters under 30 have not figured highly in the count, especially in places like New Mexico. If he's getting these numbers *without* the help of this key demographic, when they do turn up, it's going to be huge. They do have to turn up and vote though!! Although Republicans will start getting themselves to the polls in large numbers, the sense of impending doom may well dampen the enthusiasm of the marginal supporters.

I have never believed in the Bradley effect anyway, and I certainly don't think any "some of my best firends are" style bigot in this campaign hasn't been given every figleaf necessary to jump ship. How else could McCain's numbers be the right side of 40%?. As RFK junior has pointed out, exit polls take no account of what polling officials do in the privacy of the polling booth.

[gretchenart]

There is little enthusiasm to get to the polls for Republicans unless they are voting for Obama. At least from what I have seen. Perhaps Bush's negative campaigning against McCain and his erratic and chaotic campaign and choice of empty-headed Palin are strong de-motivators. In any case, there is too much silence in places like central Texas, where folks used to be very outspoken republicans. Almost no stickers, no signs, no obvious excitement about the election...

[notconfindtweenhatnboots]

That... and do you really think that people who only half-heartedly say they will vote for McCain will stand in long lines for several hours to cast their votes?