Why is McCain Headed to Defeat? It is Not the Economy, Stupid

Here's what I know: The public views George W. Bush as a freakish anomaly. He's considered such a disaster that the country cannot conceive of a next president as similarly out of touch with reality.

So, while the Democrats have an unquestioned advantage going into this presidential election, I believe the public has been willing to give the Republican nominee a fair shake. They view Bush as incompetent, and this country is looking for competence.

I get this impression from talking to people around the country over the last year and a half. There was very little mention of George W. Bush when talking about the candidates. And while I often point to John McCain's record of voting 91% of the time with George W., I do believe that many (but not all) do not find it credible for McCain to be Bush III.

Part of the reason why the Republicans stood a shot in this election is also because Obama is relatively new on the scene. That left some still skeptical about Obama and willing to take a look at the Republican's choice.

So, what happened? Six weeks ago, McCain held a slight lead in the polls. It was the only time he's led in four months. Where did it all go wrong?

The economy collapsed. But the collapse of the economy did not mean the collapse of the McCain campaign -- no, what killed the McCain campaign was simply John McCain's campaign.

Mistake #1 - Sarah Palin

It was no one other than John McCain who chose Sarah Palin as his running mate. Ask around; this turned out to be a killer for McCain. Palin has been a horrible, horrible running mate, veering toward nutty attacks on Obama, and using the exact tactics that the country is not interested in at all at this time. She's speaking to a very narrow base of fanatics and William Kristol of The New York Times, a columnist most noted for his lack of touch with reality (An aside: Did the Times select Kristol as their "conservative" columnist because they knew he was off the wall, and thus he would make conservatism look bad? Couldn't they have found a right-winger who was more credible?).

I had friends who were considering McCain. They told me why -- their logic was not terrible. But all of them -- all of them -- changed their minds when Palin started to speak. McCain killed his argument that experience matters. It was the crux of his campaign, and he destroyed his own message. And here's how this problem is constantly compounded: one, when McCain talks about how great Sarah Palin is, it's just not credible. Two, whenever Palin makes news, her candidacy is just not credible.

Mistake #2 - McCain's Reasons for Picking Palin

The Maverick, as he likes to call himself, could no longer claim to be a maverick when it was clear that he wanted to pick Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge, but the right-wing told him, "no." He then had to pick the only right-winger he could stand: the one he did not yet have the opportunity to know and dislike. So he picked Palin, and once again, destroyed his message.

Mistake #3 - The Surge

John McCain may or may not be right about the surge. I don't know. But it is very clear that he is passionate about it. He talks easily about the Generals and the situation on the ground. He's very fluent in the subject. But when he talks about the economy, it is quite clear that he is not passionate about it. He does not talk easily about homeownership or Wall Street. He's admittedly not fluent on the subject. Each mention of the Surge shows how much he does not know about the economy.

Mistake #4 - The Suspension

The "suspension" of his campaign to go to Washington to negotiate the bailout again took away the Maverick label. You cannot be a maverick when you try such a political ploy. It was the kind of "gut" decision that McCain likes to make, and here's the thing about gut decisions: some go well, some go horribly wrong. They represent no clear political philosophy, just brashness. The country is crying out for stability. McCain does not seem stable.

Mistake #5 - The Debates

There is not much McCain could have done about this one. TV is not kind to 72-year old men, particularly when they are on stage next to a much younger, more handsome, articulate person. One of the reasons I always held such confidence in Obama's victory was because the debates would work in his favor due to the age gap.

Mistake #6 - Ayers

Talking about Ayers is representative of the fact that the McCain people have no idea what the country is thinking. The country has looked at Obama, and he seems calm, stable, Presidential. Only the wackiest nut jobs think Obama approves of the acts committed by Ayers. We all know by now that Ayers is Professor Ayers, and he has helped work on education issues in Chicago. No one thinks Obama "pals around with terrorists." It's not credible. By constantly repeating this line, it takes away McCain's credibility, because the people have seen Obama and judged him as a moderate fellow.

These are the mistakes that cost McCain the campaign. Not the economy.

Comments

[wendynyc]

Doesn't someone need to call out Palin on all the lies that she loudly spouts out! Why is she getting a free pass?
This is almost like Hillary's campaign - that went on and on - without rebuttal - when she refused to acknowledge that she had lost the race.

Barack Obama's surrogates need to attack Palin on the issues she is bringing up loud and clear.

[postdem]

It's not quite true that "no one" believes Obama pals around with terrorists. Palins' acolytes do beieve it.
What is true is that this whole screed has exposed the toxic underbelly of Republican politics (that and ACORN) and that more and more people have caught on. The lies, fear baiting could only work for a while and as our population has changed and has been stung time after time with this line of attack...it is just old and tired, it lost its punch...plus! there's the internets, that system of tubes!

[new logic]

the gop is septic

[cobraxus]

Look at and listen to the people McCain/Palin have stirred up.it's easy to incite an angry mob since these are people who react emotionally to things that require rational informed thought.this is who the republican base have become.but what happens after election day?

[MBryant]

McCain had two strategies after the nominees became apparent
- Obama is very young inexperienced and underqualified. He may be a nice guy with good intentions but this is a tough world and he's not shown he's ready. The "star/celebrity" attack was a good one for McCain - showing Obama as all flash and not enough substance - especially in the resume dept.
- In tough times you need a steady experienced chief executive - someone with patience and the years of experience to make consistent judgements.

McCain made three big mistakes
- Waiting and not working. He was the apparent nominee first and yet after securing the nominee he seemed to go to on vacation. He wasn't in the senate and he didn't really engage in the campaign until the conventions started. Once in the campaign, he was looking tired all the time, but not really working that hard, taking off many weekends, not making that many appearances, not fund-raising hard enough.
- Palin. selecting Palin took his only effective attack away from Obama because to anyone with half a brain: if Palin's qualified to be President, Obama's well-qualified.
- Maverick. selecting Palin, attack ads, Maverick, Maverick, Maverick, these gambles took away his only unique qualification - that he was the older, more experienced hand. To everyone, Obama now looks like the steadier, less risky, more composed and consistent candidate.

I expect McCain to gain a little in the last weeks, it won't be a landslide, but
stick a

[Equalizer]

http://mav-equalizer.blogspot.com/2008/10/mccaina-most-disrespectful-campaign.html

McCain:A Most (Dis)Respectful Campaign!

[HarryParatestis]

The Democrats handed the GOP back the Presidency by nominating a BLACK MAN. All McCain had to do was keep the ball. He fumbled it by underestimating the willingness of a majority of the American people not to vote for anybody other than a white male. Palin and his Wall Street reaction has done him in.

[robbie44]

your logic is airtight.i look forward to your next point of view.

[oldfart1]

There are charts that show every drop in the Dow was matched nearly perfectly by a McCain drop in the polls.

Racism would have defeated Obama except that he (and the world) are incredibly lucky - the crunch came 6 weeks before the election

Bush talks to God, but God does not listen. Obama doesn't have to talk to God, because God always takes care of him..

[therealredstateblues]

Obama is going to need doublke digit leads to over come the closet racism "bradley effect",
as well as have a convincing enough margin to overcome any voting shenanigans the right is likley to pull and beable to challenge a close defeat

hate to say it but thats the facts. right now his leads in the polls when factoring in racism and election fraud pull Mccain ahead or within the margins of error

[Whinger]

There's not a day goes by without John McCain proving to the world that he's unfit to be President.

[parvo63]

"They view Bush as incompetent, and this country is looking for competence. "
OK, let's talk competence. #1 on the Democratic ticket is someone who has 0 (zero) competence on public administration, or any administration for that matter. He came from a state senate to the US senate, and after spending less than 2 years there, doing nothing, he decided that that toy was too small for him - and wanted a new, bigger toy, the Presidency. Given his well-documented lack of own initiatives, I am not sure whether it was his idea, or his Mom's idea that he needs a bigger toy, for a bigger boy.
#2 on the ticket is someone who spent 36 years in Congress and in the US Senate, and became famous with 1) doing nothing, and 2) making the wrong foreign affairs mistakes 98% of the time. Biden is the ultimate embodyment of how mediocrity pays off: when you fail as a presidential candidate in your own party with less than 1% of the votes, you get awarded with a nice cozy spot on the national ticket, well, as #2. This is the proverbial proof of how much, and generously, mediocrity pays off.
Say it ain't so, Joe.

[McBushMcSame]

And yet, they've run a better campaign than the driver of the Hate Talk Express, and are grounded in reality about the economy... something McCain has no clue about.

The Rethug #1 thinks Ayers is gonna solve the global economic crisis and repair the US economy. The #2 thinks seeing Alaska from her living room (lie) means she can lead us through war(s). And she thinks the only true Americans are in small towns... all while trying to pilfer the US so that she and her hubby can seceed from the union.

There is your lesson in competence. The Democratic ticket has it. The Republican ticket desperately needs it now. At it's current state, McPalin and the RNC couldn't pour piss out of a boot with the directions written on the heel.

[Luv2Purple]

John McCain =
"I don't understand the economy"
"The fundamentals of the economy are strong"
"I'll get back to you" (how many homes do you own Senator?)
"Sarah Palin is the best qualified candidate for Vice President"
John McCain = OUT OF TOUCH! Time to retire to Sedona Senator.

[Just Joe]

My wife is a Bush supporter, and she just voted early voting for Obama.
She has been hoping McCain would give her a reason to vote for him and in the end she told me that what finally decided her was the negative campaigning.
That is what turned her off.
If my wife just voted for Obama, well I feel pretty good about the Democrats chances now.

[Ged2012]

Here's Mistake #7:

McCain is hiding behind Joe the Plumber as an excuse to bolster his economic credentials. Joe happens to be someone, as we all know now, a plumber without a license and a guy who has back taxes.

Next thing McCain would do is look for Jane the Hairdresser.

[cobraxus]

Joe The Plummer(no relation I hope to David Bowie's Joe The Lion)is an example of Reagan era "Tell Me A Story Daddy" narrative.but when reality(the facts)contradict the narrative neocons become enraged.the argument being made now is that since the facts don't support the story they want to tell the democrats and the libral(sic)media are doing something evil by pointing this out.

[cavhok]

Amazing how the left is terrified by Palin, last i looked the polls were seriously tightening, the things that pundits and the press must realize, just cuz you say it or write dont make it so, on nov the 4th we shall see, i think will comeback and win, just a gut feeling,

[BertrandRussell]

The race is not close. Not at all close. Barring the unforeseen, Obama will win with something around 350 electoral votes.

Check out FiveThirtyEight:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

and Princeton Election Consortium:
http://election.princeton.edu/

Both sites analyze a wide variety of polls, relying heavily on state polls over nationals (which is, of course, how the electoral votes are determined), and assimilate the data into a much clearer picture than any single poll can provide.

Don't take my word for it. Check it out for yourself.

[BertrandRussell]

Oh, and yes, you are correct. As a liberal, as a citizen who loves his country, I am indeed terrified of the prospect of a Palin Presidency. The woman lacks the intellectual gravitas REQUIRED to lead this nation well.

[iRob08]

When you say terrified, you mean we are terrified of this greatly unqualified, unethical person assuming the second highest office in America. Do you not understand the potential consequences of VP Palin?

I'd call on Joe the plumber to help out with that gut feeling, if I were you.

[wayofpeace]

dream on....
it's over.

check FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM for the electoral votes predictions:

i think it's called landslide!

[Luv2Purple]

It's not "the left" who is terrified of by Palin.....
it is ALL clear thinking PATRIOTIC Americans - who love our country -
who cannot stand the thought of an incompetent, know nothing in office....WAIT, we have that now!
Palin is Bush in heels. Palin broke the LAW in Alaska....and was CONVICTED of ETHICS VIolations (the same thing her predecessor did).
Palin also has one child who was GUILTY OF VANDALISM and rumored to be on drugs. Her oldest daughter, after being preached to about abstinence only - screwed around and got pregnant.
Sarah "wolfkiller" Palin
Then she has the nerve to tell America what questions we should ask of the media and the Obama campaign - but SHE HAS NO RIGHT when she refuses to face the American people. PAlin on SNL that works because she is a National Political JOKE!