Obama's Consolidation of the Party

This piece relies on rumors going around donor and activist circles. It is cross-posted at OpenLeft.

Brownsox at Dailykos blogs.

Over 1.25 million Indianans voted yesterday for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary.

Over 1.1 million Indianans voted for Jill Long Thompson or Jim Schellinger in the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry received 969,000 votes in the state of Indiana...in the general election.

That is stunning. The primary has been exceptionally good for party building. Obama has created a number of significant infrastructure pieces through his campaign, displacing traditional groups the way he promised he would by signaling the end of the old politics of division and partisanship.

1. Voter Registration: Obama has launched a 50 state registration drive.

   "That's why I'm so proud that today our campaign announced a massive volunteer-led voter registration drive in all 50 states to help ensure every single eligible voter takes part in this election so we can take back Washington for the American people."

   I have heard from several sources that the Obama campaign is sending out signals to donors, specifically at last weekend's Democracy Alliance convention, to stop giving to outside groups, including America Votes. The campaign also circulated negative press reports about Women's Voices Women's Vote, implying voter suppression.

2. Obama Organizing Fellows: Here's Obama describing them:

   Basically what we've done is we've been attracting so much volunteer talent, so many young people who have gotten involved in the campaign, that we wanted to give a handful of them an opportunity to have some more intensive training. So we've asked them to apply for fellowships. I think they're called Obama Fellows. They will get intensive training, and they will be put on staff and will have an experience, starting in June.

   These are unpaid positions, and they will be used to do field organizing, message, and helping to "continue to build the movement". This is pure leadership development, though it continues the class-based diminution of talent by refusing to pay, a problem outlined in Crashing the Gates.

3. Money: MyBarackObama.com: With 1.5 million donors, this campaign has blown away anything we've ever seen in terms of grassroots fundraising. The technology is all centralized, so Obama knows the name, address, giving patterns, and occupation of every donor out there, as well as social networking information, like who the best raisers are. He has bypassed Actblue, and will probably end up building in a Congressional slate feature to further party build while keeping control of the data.

   One email from Moveon to their full list can bring in between $100k to $1M for a candidate, with $1M being the very top end of the range. With one good email to his list, in a few months, Obama will probably be able to bring in $1-3M for a Senate candidate under attack or split that among several. 10-20% of the money going to Senate candidates this cycle might come from Barack Obama's internet operation. Stunning.

4. Field: MyBarackObama.com (MyBO): MyBarackObama.com is the cornerstone of the campaign, and it will have between 10-15 million opt-in members by election day. This group can be used for lobbying on legislation, GOTV, and donations. It's a cross between Moveon.org and the DNC, and with the White House, it can transform progressive politics and further amplify the power of the Presidency. As coordinated campaigns pick up, and the top of the ticket brings coattails, organizing power is going to further flow to the Obama campaign.

5. Message and Politics: MyBarackObama.com: Obama used YouTube to push back on Reverend Wright, something he will continue to do to move beyond sound bite politics. He has a good press shop and a way to push message out to the web. The campaign has also, despite thousands of interviews with a huge number of outlets, refused to have Obama interact on progressive blogs. The Fox News situation, where Obama went on Fox News and mismanaged communications, drew criticism from Moveon because taking down Fox News has been a key strategic goal of that organization; nevertheless, the group supported him because of overwhelming adulation from their membership.

   This is a far different strategy than the McCain campaign, who, though he hates blogs, talks to them, or the Clinton campaign, who invites them on her calls. This is NOT a criticism, by the way, it's obviously worked as a strategy to centralize messaging power around the Obama shop while neutering a potentially off-message rowdy group. That has its downsides, which I'll get into, but it is a strategy.

   I'm also told, though I can't confirm, that Obama campaign has also subtly encouraged donors to not fund groups like VoteVets and Progressive Media. These groups fall under the 'same old Washington politics' which he wants to avoid, a partisan gunslinging contest he explicitly advocates against.

You know all that old-style Washington politics preventing real change? As hard as it might be to handle, in a lot of ways he means that those of us who believe in partisan hard edged combat are part of an outmoded system. It doesn't actually divide cleanly; old hand Tom Daschle is a key figure and likely to be Obama's chief of staff, and Artur Davis is likely to be his Attorney General. These are old school Democrats, and Obama's machine is full of the Congressional wing of the party that lost out in 1992 to Clinton and his people.

This isn't a criticism; again, Obama made his bet that the country isn't into ideological combat and wants a politics of unity and hope, and he has won at internally. In terms of the 'Iron Law of Institutions', the Obama campaign is masterful. From top to bottom, they have destroyed their opponents within the party, stolen out from under them their base, and persuaded a whole set of individuals from blog readers to people in the pews to ignore intermediaries and believe in Barack as a pure vessel of change. It's actually very similar to Clinton from 1994-2000, where power and money in the Democratic Party is being centralized around a key iconic figure. He's consolidating power within the party.

Now here's the part that's unclear. Obama has successfully remade the Democratic Party already, and shown that old partisan Washington politics is over if you are a Democrat. Can he do that with Republicans? By stripping power, money and responsibility from outside groups and opponents, Obama is increasing his control of the party apparatus. He is also, however, putting everything on his own shoulders. When the Swift Boaters come back, and they will, it's all on Obama and his movement to hit back. He's betting that he can strip power from their base just as he stripped power from the old Washington way of doing politics within the Democratic Party.

I do not doubt that he can do this during the general election. McCain is such a weak candidate, and the Republicans are in such disarray, that a solid White House victory, 5-7 Senate seats, and 40-50 seats in the House are clearly possible. House Republicans are especially mean right now; insiders tell me they are going to cause problems with the war funding tactics just because they are so depressed from losing in Louisiana and Illinois. They have no money for the House and the Senate, and a depressed base. I'm curious about Obama's governing philosophy, as that is where the Republicans are going to make their stand in 2009. Without traditional outside groups (and he doesn't want them involved, witness his lobbyist ban in his new administration), Obama is going to be relying on the emergent networks that come from his campaign to buttress his priorities, but since we don't actually know what they are, it's hard to figure out what his governing strategy will be.

As Mike Lux wrote earlier, it's time to get ready for Obama as the nominee. I would amplify this and point out that it's time to get ready for a party that is being taken apart and rebuilt as the Obama movement. It's incredibly refreshing, in a sense, for politics to be completely reimagined on top of the internet and with a strong focus on leadership development, volunteers, and outside of DC leadership disdainful of partisanship and the give and take of politics-as-usual. It's also displacing the anti-Bush arguments of the last eight years and the political dynamic it fostered on the left. DDay wrote about this on Digby's blog the other day.

There's certainly a danger here of relying on projected numbers instead of traditional power bases, though I don't think he'll be abandoning groups like unions and black churches, nor will any progressive movement structures abandon him. But I really think that the Obama campaign is reacting to this demonization campaign from the right by saying "OK, I'll find voters in so many nooks and crannies and make you work in so many states that you won't have a chance to make this narrative work." His response is not necessarily building a progressive electorate; that would be accomplished by plugging into the nascent progressive structures that already exist. Obama appears to want to build an electorate aligned with Obama's principles and values, and fostering greater participation in politics as a means to move the country forward and break the current polarization. Some Democrats would play on the same playing field and try to win it; Obama's building an entirely new field, one where these narratives and negative ads and the need to tailor the entire general election to 10 independent voters in the middle of Ohio won't matter anymore.

I can't say if it will totally work, but that looks to be the strategy. We've been tantalized with these kinds of efforts before; it's actually a very traditional belief that increased turnout is good for Democrats.

All I'll add is that it's time to think through the consequences of a party where there is a new chief with massive amounts of power. I've been in the wilderness all my political life, as have most of us. The Clintonistas haven't, and they know what it's like to be part of the inside crew. We have a leader, and he's not a partisan and he can now end fractious intraparty fights with a word and/or a nod. His opinion really matters in a way that even Nancy Pelosi's just did not. He has control of the party apparatus, the grassroots, the money, and the messaging environment. He is also, and this is fundamental, someone that millions of people believe in as a moral force. When you disagree with Obama, you are saying to these people 'your favorite band sucks'.

Like many of us, I endorsed Obama, gave him money, and I intend to work to get him elected. He is attempting to completely rewrite the rules of politics, and we should try to figure out what that means for where we take our meager work. Obama is now the party leader. And he has ensured and we have given him the mandate that when he speaks, he speaks for all of us. I hope he's a vibrant progressive when he gets into office, and we should begin figuring out how to put ourselves in a position to help him take the country in a progressive direction.

Follow Matt Stoller on Twitter: www.twitter.com/matthewstoller

Comments

[rbloom]

This is the most encouraging thing I've read in a long time -- a Democrat with a strategy and a tactical game plan. Things are definitely looking up for November.

[wewhodream]

Was it Keith Olberman who said he wanted a president smarter than him, "scary smart"? Me, too. And Jon Stewart, himself a very bright man, made reference (regarding the Race Speech) to Obama speaking to us as if we were adults. I can't wait until this brilliant (and great) man is inaugurated. A young, vital president, a wife who matches his intelligence, two beautiful daughters...in other words, a family not unlike the one we had in the early 1960s. Maybe even better...

[Darrick]

As Democrats, we value equality, freedom and a government for of and by the people. To carry these values forward, and prove that they are worthy values, we have to be the exemplars of civil dialogue. What are your values?

Freedom: Freedom allows us to meet our needs, fulfill our potential, realize our dreams, and help others to do so as well.

Open Communication: Open communication is at the heart of empathy and responsibility. To know how to care for others, we must communicate with them to understand their needs. Cooperation relies on two-way communication.

Fairness: When we care for others, we want to treat them fairly, help them to treat others fairly, and ensure that others do treat them fairly.

Cooperation: Responsibility to others requires cooperation and empathy. Cooperation is the basis for community, and requires open communication, honesty and trust.

Trust: Trust is needed for open communication and cooperation. We are trustworthy when we treat others fairly and responsibly.

Honesty: Honesty is the hallmark of open communication, and is necessary for trust and cooperation.

Community: Healthy communities are based on cooperation, honesty, trust, and open communication. (Values from Rockridge Institute).

We do not want to fall in the trap of hurting each other, which shows that our values don't work and that we really should be ruled over. We must practice the values we wish to see used in the world. Unite!

[EinChicago]

You forgot teh all important caveat of 20008; fairness, freedom etc. ar eall good things, but teh offer is not valid in Florida or Michigan where suppression and disenfranchisement is the Obama strategy.

[BeingFrank]

I'm so tired of hearing this Michigan & Florida spin…

Your argument should be directed towards those who decided to break our party rules,.. not at Obama.

How we deal with this situation is of important consequence for decades to come, not just this year, as it sets a precedent as to how our agreed upon party rules will be enforced.

In other words, it we don’t deal with this now and correctly, in the future, any state will be able to do as they please, by simply recalling the Michigan and Florida vote in 2008 as their example.

Typical short sighted, the hell with the future, burn all bridges, spin campaign that the Clintons have waged and so many of her blind supporters have swallowed hook, line, and sinker.

[Heidfeld]

Wow! What planet is this guy living on?

Guess what... Obama has not succeeded in uniting the Democratic party. If he can't convince all the Democrats to see things his way, how will he convince anyone else?

And Obama gets ALL the credit for the voter turnout in Indiana? What? How? Are you crazy? Did you not notice that part where MORE PEOPLE VOTED FOR HILLARY in IN than voted for Obama? So, which candidate turned out more democratic voters in IN? Hillary. Just like she turned out more Dems in TX, OH and PA. She is the power of the party.

[EinChicago]

Agreed. I thought this was satire at first. Obama has consolidated his support with a few groups that when combined constitute, in toto, less than 20% of the electorate and he has alienated everybody else. The only way he has "consolidated" support is if you ignore his complete and utter alienation of catholics, hispanics, florida, michigan, ohio and Pennsylvania residents, white working class voters, women, and basically everybody except for teh rainbow Push coalition and the Middle aged Impotent Professors for Kerry brotherhood.

[mbsheetz]

Matt, Matt, Matt it is a rarified young universe you blog from.. I remember all to well of all the maverick, fine leaders in the democratic party that I supported passionately, none of who gained the parties nomination nor won the presidency: McGovern,Mondale, Dukakis, Kennedy,Jerry Brown, Gary Hart,Bill Bradley,Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards I could go on. The only Democrats that I voted for and won are Bill Clinton and Al Gore. My personal experience tells me that great ideas and a desire for change or being right is not enough. We need a candidate who can play in the traffic that is Washington DC and who possesses the passion and skills to effect change today. George Bush's mess is too colossal to be left to a tender hearted intellectual like Barak. I sense that the reason Kennedy, Kerry, McGovern are circling around Obama is they sense this young man needs protecting from what they know is a fight he can't win.

[bobdob]

"The Fox News situation, where Obama went on Fox News and mismanaged communications, drew criticism from Moveon."

How incredibly arrogant, Matt. He didn't "mismanage" communications. He did precisely what he meant to do. If you don't like the way he's running his campaign, jump in the race and beat him. But don't sit on the sidelines and make stupid statements like that. MoveOn members need to grow the hell up.

[CommittedDem]

You do realize that Obama will still need about 95% of Hillary supporters in order to win. It certainly doesn't help when you guys consistently insult her supporters. Whatever happened to the politics of hope?

[ImLeft]

We have all become familiar with Senator Obama's new brand of politics. First, you demand civility from your opponent, then you attack him, distort his record and send out surrogates to question his integrity. It is called hypocrisy, and it is the oldest kind of politics there is.

It is important to focus on what Senator Obama is attempting to do here: He is trying desperately to delegitimize the discussion of issues that raise legitimate questions about his judgment and preparedness to be President of the United States.

Through their actions and words, Senator Obama and his supporters have made clear that ANY criticism on ANY issue -- from his desire to raise taxes on millions of small investors to his radical plans to sit down face-to-face unconditionally with foes who despise America – constitute negative, personal attacks.

[mjc]

Stoller simply states what I've suspected all along: Obama is going to represent the Movement, his movement, not a Democratic Party, nor any of the solutions, issues or plans of various Party leaders. I wonder if groups like Vote for Vets and especially True Majority and MoveOn are aware of just how far he is willing to go to produce his own party. That would definitely turn me off. What issues are going to be important to this Movement? Are the issues going to be ones that further divide this nation along racial lines?

[JJeff88]

Interesting, but I'm not sure I buy into everything Stoller says.

In order to compete against the establishment in the primaries, Barack had to build a strong organization from the ground up. But to theorize that he plans to supplant the current Dem organization apparatus in November is pure speculation.

Not to say that the meshing of a candidates' campaign organization with state party apparatus isn't important and won't be daunting.

The Obama staff will rightfully feel they've earned the right to call the shots in the general election because they won in the spring.

Each state organization will rightfully claim they "know the local lay of the land."

The Obama people must aim for balance - they should treat each state party apparatus respectfully. But they shouldn't accept everything said by state leaders as gospel (those folks aren't always right nor their intentions always pure).

Rule of thumb should be to (a) cede as much authority and responsibility as each state party apparatus shows they can handle, (b) set up a mechanism by which the Obama people "know" everything going on but "control" as little as necessary and (c) understand the differences between a primary and general election campaign.

2008 may be unique. Normally, primaries involve a strong voter identifica­tion/pulli­ng effort. General elections are more mass-media in nature. However, with so much cross-over potential this year, this might be a year where primary voter identification tactics may be needed in the general election.

Rock on!

[WalkingOnEggshells]

Excellent article, I only question that Matt Stoller has likely underestimated the capacity of Repug dirty tricks. Has he not read Dr. Steven Freeman's The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy revealing powerful statistical evidence that the 2004 election was stolen through electronic ballot manipulation? ( http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf ) I don't have a lot of confidence that the Repug liars and criminals won't be able to cheat their way into the White House again.

There is also the spector of the Repug-funded Nader shill campaign again siphoning Democratic votes away from Obama. Nobody seems to be talking about that much. Matt, what do you think?

More optimistically, I like to hope that Bush's catastrophically poor leadership over the last eight years will have killed any Repug chances at the presidency, causing a landslide so great as to make impossible the Repug electronic ballot cheating. McCain positioning himself as Bush's clone can only help that occur. For a while there I thought a Obama/Clinton ticket would be fantastic but I have been so disgusted by Hillary's negative campaigning I no longer want to see her in the White House. I would MOST like to see Obama bring Ron Paul on as his running mate, can you imagine the force of a bipartisan ticket like that? Ron Paul is the only sane Repug that's been in the race, respected even by many Democrats like myself.

BARACK PLEASE THINK ABOUT MAKING RON PAUL YOUR RUNNING MATE!

[WorkingClass]

There is also the spector of the Repug-funded Nader shill campaign again siphoning Democratic votes away from Obama. Nobody seems to be talking about that much. Matt, what do you think?

I voted for Nader in 2000 and in 2004. I will be voting for Obama provided he doesn't put Hillary on the ticket.

[neem]

Obama is working to improve the Democratic Party. He may accomplish things, but if HIllary Clinton is his Vice Presidential running mate, he will fail.

Obama should be free to choose a running mate that he, the Democrats, and the country can be PROUD of. The only reason he would choose Hillary is FEAR.

It's OK to be afraid of Hillary. You'd be crazy NOT to be afraid. I am afraid of Hillary Clinton. It's OK. JUST DON'T MAKE HER VICE-PRESIDENT!!!

[DemPartyGirl]

That's right. So maybe Obama should accept the VP slot instead.

[Sheridan1]

Wow. I was so inspried by this article. Then I read these posts and you are SCARED? Oh ye of little faith!
Change is good. THIS kind of change is especially good and it is what is needed if we are to succeed in keeping our status as a major power in the global picture. If things stayed as they are, tthe U.S. could end up being like a 3rd world country! People are so tight in their little "I ME MINE" circles they are forgeting about this bigger picture. How could the economy (and the U.S. dollar) get any worse? Is China our banker? Are we arrogant, fat and stupid? Is half our country living in poverty?
Come on now - THESE are scary things!!

[mjc]

And putting one man...., and his wife, in charge of solving those problems isn't scary? Change isn't scary. It is a fact. The guy at the top should be looking around for the Party that "brung" him to the place. Obama won't be. He is just arrogant enough to think that he has all the answers. There were echoes of Obama in guys like Huey Long and you sure had some of that in Ronnie Raygun. Reagan fooled a lot of folks but Reagan was whaco enough to leave the Party regulars out. He let them pretend they were governing while he tended to more important things..., like giving speeches. But if Stoller is right, that won't be the case.

[Insideout143]

You miss the whole point... WE will be in charge, and it's about time!
That will be Obama's governing strategy that this article and you don't see.
The change is already happening, it's not just a grand idea or dream... It's already working!
I have been witness to people in communities coming together, and working with their local police dept. to make positive changes in their communities. People are activated, people are going to make the difference. Get it or not, change IS happening.

[meltingpot101]

President Bush inspired people in a way that is undeniable. Obama was also inspired and recognized the inspiration in the american people. The disgust, disappointment and shame that so many of us have felt in the Bush administration has primed this country to crave change. Obama answered the call and takes it a step further. Engaging americans to feel part of again, instead of unheard and overlooked.

A change that is welcomed and exciting to those of us who know we can do better.

[EinChicago]

Bush and Obama are pretty much interchangeable. Obama has modeled his campaignb on Bush's 2000 campaign almost faithfully.

[jlp48]

Propaganda and bullshit - frightening stuff. The very reason I will not vote for him in the general election.

[SuzieG]

I lived through Trudeaumania in Canada and 4 years later he had a minority goverment for 2 yrs. Kennedy was fighting a hard re-election battle and we will never know if he would have been re-elected . Clinton lost the congress because he promised $650 and health care but couldn't deliver even with a democratic congress. Obama has been put on a pedestal and the only way for him to go, is down - there's no way that he can live up to your expectations. He's a politician! If he gets to the White House his first day will be the first day of his re-election campaign. For that, he'll have to give in and I mean GIVE IN to the republicans to be able to state, 4 years later, that he could work across party lines and that will not make y'all happy. He's a politician first and foremost and will do and say anything to get elected as all previous presidents have done before him. Power corrupts and he's no better than anyone else and if you think the contrary you are not being realistic! And by the way, he will lose the congress also - the expectations are just too high and congress is a very selfish place - democrats unlike the republicans do not vote "en bloc" that body only looks out for itself. They'll put him in his place especially if it's them who give him the nomination. It's inevitable. Mania don't last! they just

[elevando]

C'mon, superdelegates end this thing! Rush Limbaugh has just endorsed Obama, and if that isn't crossover appeal, I don't know what is.

[mikonyc]

This post is scary! First of all, the way that Mr. Stoller talks about Obama, it is almost Warren Jeffs-like, "the vessel of change?" As if Obama is solely responsible for the change happening in American politics. True he has cashed in on young voters (he appeals to them, and Michael Moore was most responsible for starting the young voter movement in the 2004 election). Democrats and many Republicans are so disillusioned by the Bush years and Iraq, I know that they would be voting democrat anyway, Obama or not. This is not to say Obama is not inspirational, but to treat him as a God, what he and his surrogates say, all others follow, that is exactly what we do not need. We have just had 8 years of this with Bush. No more power to the presidency, let the people rule, No KING OBAMA! PLEASE!

[mjc]

Probably be more like "Enlightened Despot" Obama and his Queen. This "movement", with no particular plans, solutions, leaves all the imagining and determination to the great leader. If this article is a true representation of an Obama presidency, I will certainly vote for anyone else.

[Star123]

If Obama can get elected, which I question, remember this: Just like he gave a speech against the war that turned out to be prophetic, I am saying: You will see, you will be sorry. There is so much you don't know about this guy. So much!

[meltingpot101]

Scare tactics, washington scare tactics. As if a president McCain offers no fear. Please.

To live in fear is to be imprisoned. People are tierd of that. Look where that has gotten us.

It's time to turn the page.

[lmore]

Like what? If the Chicago newspapers for 8 years couldn't find it, and the Clinton opposition research machine couldn't find it, perhaps it just might be possible that we actually have an honest politician with integrity.

[gabbyone]

It has been found, you just like to pretend it doesn't exist......

[furelise]

You need to read the Chicago Sun Times and the Tribune. Rezko trial goes to the final arguments Monday, jury not too far behind.

[EGNY]

So trolls have magically turned into prophets now, have they? This is becoming so very tiring. Soon, no one will be listening to any of this sort of garbage, and the people who can't get off of it will be wandering around muttering to themselves. Go away.