Wimbledon Tennis: In Final, Roger Federer Has No Chance

Andy Roddick will win the 2009 Wimbledon final 7-6 6-7 7-6 6-7 9-7, defeating Roger Federer in his bid to reclaim his All England Club crown and surpass Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam titles. You heard it here first!

Actually, my predicted score line is the only chance Roddick has of taking Federer down this year. Fed is playing very, very well on the vaunted grass courts of England. His serve has been stupendous: When Roger Federer gets his first serve percentage into the low 80s, he's virtually impossible to beat--or even take sets off of.

But Roddick is no slouch in the serve department, either. Among active pros, he owns one of the biggest first and second serves in the game, a deadly combination of terrifying velocity and insane spin. Since losing two Wimbledon finals to Federer, he's modified his game and started to play up to his abilities on grass.

Still, he'll struggle tomorrow to break Federer's serve, as Fed will struggle to break his. So an effective strategy for Roddick would be to guard his own serve fanatically, ignore Federer's, and save his best returns for tiebreakers. Tiebreakers are unpredictable, but Roddick is on a good tiebreak run. If he manages 3-4 aces and focuses on going after 2-3 returns, he can sprint to a quick lead and then try to hold on, edging out tiebreaks by scores of 8-6, 9-7, 10-8. With luck, he'll then be able to eek out a single service break late on the tiebreaker-less fifth set.

Federer isn't ultimately that worried about Roddick because he long ago cracked the American's game. They've met three times in Slam finals (Fed also defeated Roddick to win the 2006 U.S. Open), and in each case, the Swiss has neutralized Roddick's main weapon. This has typically frustrated Roddick, who's accustomed to holding serve easily against most players. Roddick is intelligent and competitive, but against Federer he needs more metal toughness than usual.

He showed this in his semifinal victory against Andy Murray, the Scottish player who had become the best chance for a British Wimbledon champ since Fred Perry in 1936. When he needed the big serves, he came up with them. And when the match became a battle of who could overcome the tightness that a pressure-filled match induces, Roddick demonstrated that he could hit through the anxiety.

He probably has a game plan for Federer, so I don't expect him to take my advice. Playing for breakers isn't necessarily in the big server's playbook; 6-4 6-4 6-4 is how they generally want to beat opponents. However, Roddick doesn't have the game to break Fed's serve even once of twice. So he should push for the breakers and roll the dice. This year's All England final is a great chance for him to win a title he should probably have claimed at least once already. And he can do it if he does what he's currently doing best, which is win tiebreakers.

UPDATE: Pressure's on for Federer! Playing for history with Bjorn Borg, Rod Laver, Ilie Nastase--and Pete Sampras all in the house! In suits! This could be good.

ANOTHER UPDATE: OK, got the five setter, but Roddick lost both tiebreaks! So much his great tiebreak record. Better off trying to break Fed's serve.

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Comments

[kiran1207]

completely wrong! And I am glad!

[Matthew DeBord - Huffpost Blogger]

Hey, I did call five sets and a long fifth. I just figured A-Rod would win the breakers, not Roddick, who showed that he can break Fed's serve more easily than Fed can break his.

Roddick was gracious is defeat, but this one clearly stung. However, we should remember that he's a year younger than Federer and probably has a few more years left to snag a Wimbledon title.

Federer did prove beyond a doubt that he can at times struggle in huge matches --this may have been the huge-est--and still contrive a win. On balance I think this was a emotionally a less difficult match for him than last year's final, but technically more challenging because it was clear that Roddick's serve wasn't going to break down.

Will be interesting to see if Fed-Nadal-Roddick is the mix for the U.S. Open.

[Michael Russnow - Huffpost Blogger]

I got up at 6 a.m. PDT and expected Federer to win. That happened, of course, but not before the roller coaster ride of all tennis matches. One of the greatest I've ever seen, and considering Roddick's overall record against Federer, he more than held his own.

Plus, he broke Federer twice -- and once early -- whereas Federer won his first two sets in close tie breakers.

Something happened to Andy -- he's not played up to expectations since his dashing victory in the semi-finals of the U.S. open in 2003, when he came back from match point to win the third set and the next two, and ultimately his first (and as yet only) Grand Slam. What happened today at Wimbledon was dramatic. He was on an equal par with Federer the entire match. Federer himself attributed the ending to sheer luck -- it could have gone either way when you're 15-14 in the final set.

Federer may have playing for history, but he had time and could have achieved that honor on another day. Considering the courage and determination and sheer grit Roddick put forth -- not to mention that this particular win meant much more to his career in the form of a comeback -- his loss by a thread was heartbreaking not only to him, but to most of the crowd in London and all over the world.

[k6007]

Good game roddick! If not for a few hiccups this championship would've been yours.

Good luck at the u.s. open, andy.

[rishi851]

Cheez patriotic much eh Mathew?
Guess your predictions weren't so true huh ?

[wijg]

Congratulations, Roger.

Andy, you're a class act, you made us proud!

[EvangelicalEmpathy]

Congratulatons Roger, 6 Wimbledon championships and 15 grandslams. He is such a class act.

[HelleneAtheist]

Congrats Roger, you're officially the best ever!

[Libertynjustice4all]

Talk about a battle of attrition... man I'm so emotionally spent.

Long live Kind Federer!

[houskin]

Another so wrong predictions Lol...why cant all these Predictors go away...Hands of to Andy and Roger...Great Match but not the Greatest lol...i will take Nadal over Roger as the greatest

[FebM]

He just won!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TenThings]

Very good, and Very Close. I had no idea it would go to a fifth set!!

However,I never thought of Roddick as intelligent. He is extremely mechanical and you need heart to win, not just mechanics. Roddick learned that his SERVE and POWER can only get you so far. Maybe he is developing a heart on court.

Federer, Venus and Serena Williams, Agassi, Arthur Ashe, Graff, Billie Jean King, Mary Pierce, Pete Sampras, Seles are all extremely intelligent players.

[thaggas]

This is a different Andy than we saw five years ago. Do we Brooklynn to thank for this?

[1088]

I'm now watching the finals, which is 6 all in the fifth!