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Matthew Dowd

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Get Ready for a GOP Roller-Coaster Ride

Posted: 08/12/11 06:30 PM ET

Walking amid the good folk and food booths and rides at the Iowa State Fair, it's hard to get a sense people are fixated on politics in the aftermath of the Republican debate and before the important straw vote in Ames.

Iowans seem more intent on viewing the giant carved-butter cow in the ag building or sampling the newest featured food at this fair -- deep fried butter on a stick. This interesting new delicacy (?) seems to draw the eyes and mouths of the folks who wander past all of the other fried foods and foods on a stick. I thought to myself, the only thing that would make this all complete would be for a cardiologists' convention to be held next door. Ironically, there is a booth here at the fair offering free blood-pressure tests.

Turning back to the mundane world of politics, many of the GOP candidates have shown up at the fair to speak at something they call the "soapbox," where there is no box and no soap. It's a stage with hay bales where candidates address voters and fairgoers with all the fervor of their stump speeches. Five of the candidates will show up in the aftermath of the debate to try to get a jump on the Ames Straw Poll.

So where do we stand in this in-between time in Iowa? In the debate, some candidates reappeared; some candidates disappeared; and one new, big player who's about to appear was on everyone's minds.

For the last few weeks, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have basically gone off most folks' radar screens, but that changed. Each showed up in a much more forceful way. Pawlenty had a number of skirmishes and exchanges with the other candidates, especially Michele Bachmann -- who definitely held her own. Gingrich seemed to want to get in an argument more with the moderator than the other candidates, and he showed some passion we haven't seen in a while. Jon Huntsman, who has had a hard time getting traction since his announcement, basically disappeared over the two hours. He didn't get much time, and what he said was not very memorable.

And finally, the candidate who is about to appear, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, was part of the conversation at the debate and much of the discussion amongst the media as well as voters outside the hall. If you had to pick a winner last night, it was probably Perry. You got a palpable sense that everybody is waiting for him to get into the race, and all of the candidates know they are going to have to react to this Texan who will walk in with boots on and bravado in hand.

The debate highlighted that in the back-and-forth between Bachmann and Pawlenty, who see the results of the straw poll as key to their future prospects. Each needs to do well to be able to continue to build credibility and cash; if they don't meet expectations, their prospects are greatly diminished and may not make it to the Iowa caucuses in January.

The campaign is about to take a whole new turn in the aftermath of the straw vote, and the intensity will only increase. Ames won't pick the presidential winner, but it certainly will help decide the losers. Many candidates will either drop out not long after the straw poll or be left floundering. Although Perry will initially expand the field when he gets in, it will quickly shrink after the straw vote.

So enjoy the last days of summer, eat something fried and on a stick, take your kids or your friends to a fair in your area -- and get ready for a roller-coaster ride in the up-and-down of Republican politics starting next week.

The post originally appeared in National Journal.

 
Walking amid the good folk and food booths and rides at the Iowa State Fair, it's hard to get a sense people are fixated on politics in the aftermath of the Republican debate and before the important ...
Walking amid the good folk and food booths and rides at the Iowa State Fair, it's hard to get a sense people are fixated on politics in the aftermath of the Republican debate and before the important ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
Give peace a chance
10:58 AM on 08/14/2011
It's really a shame the way the party has devolved into an anti-intellectual, faith based, fact stretchers.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fahrenheit 451 usedbooks
activist and progressive bookstore
11:31 AM on 08/14/2011
When your right, your right! but not way right, like these right wingers :)
09:14 PM on 08/13/2011
The internecine warfare of the Republican candidates will serve as the distraction to keep the public from observing how the economy is getting worse.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
01:01 PM on 08/13/2011
Looks like the same old match up like Boxing was for years .
The Blackman against some Great White Hope.
If I am not mistaken over and over they have had to cheat to win even then .

One Day Lord, Your People will become worthy but it will not be anytime soon .
12:48 PM on 08/13/2011
Rasmussen reported today some dismaying numbers that should give Democrats pause in offering up Obama for re-election.

When it comes to finding work, just 13% of American Adults believe the U.S. jobs market is better than it was a year ago. Half (50%) believe it is worse. That latter figure is up 11 points from June and the highest negative finding since August 2009.

Faced with continuing high unemployment, voters feel strongly that the government needs to launch a job-creating program, but they have far more faith in business leaders to create new jobs. They give mixed reviews to President Obama’s new plan to create jobs for military veterans.

The number of Americans who believe the federal government should assume financial responsibility for the long-term unemployed has increased throughout 2011. Most, however, still continue to reject that approach.

When it comes to job creation and improving the overall economy, voters continue to think tax cuts will work better than government solutions.
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Belle Starr
cattle rustler and horse thief
01:02 PM on 08/13/2011
"When it comes to job creation and improving the overall economy, voters continue to think tax cuts will work better than government solutions."
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Let's start with ending the Bush tax cuts and end government interference with unions.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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behavingbadly
reality doesn't care what you believe
01:08 PM on 08/13/2011
Tax cuts WERE a government solution. They made things worse.
01:10 PM on 08/13/2011
But don't you yet realize that unions ARE the problem?

How many jobs have their demands driven from our shores.
I worked in manufacturing for 40 years, and I saw it over and over again.

Current policy will NEVER lead to any improvement, as you can see if you look around, even a little.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
01:03 PM on 08/13/2011
the right will keep pressing for INSTANT results to make people feel like nothing is happening or getting better.
they know this will make people Jaded and most likely will not vote thinking it is a waste of time.
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vogonpoet42
Illegitimus Non Carborundum
12:25 PM on 08/13/2011
I wonder how God feels about all the hatred that these malcontents are spewing in His/Her name?
biglith
He not busy being born is busy dying
10:52 AM on 08/13/2011
These folks hold values that are so removed from mine that they might as well be from another planet as far as I am concerned.
12:49 PM on 08/13/2011
We're over here on planet Earth. You should come for a visit sometime.....
02:16 PM on 08/13/2011
You mean "Middle earth".
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Belle Starr
cattle rustler and horse thief
03:53 PM on 08/13/2011
Will there be fried butter, Sugar?
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gutenmorgen
a.k.a. poopdeck
09:52 AM on 08/13/2011
A few weeks from now two of my family members from Germany will come here for a visit. How am I to explain to them that it makes sense to begin the election of our next president in a Mickey-Mouse state by a non-secret process of voting that excludes people who must be at work at the voting time? I will not even try.
12:51 PM on 08/13/2011
"....in a Mickey-Mou­se state"
>>> Aren't you being a bit hard on Iowa? Do you live a better, non-Mickey Mouse state?
09:52 AM on 08/13/2011
I think I say one black person in the crowds, Herman Caine...
12:51 PM on 08/13/2011
....a tea party favorite as is another black gentleman, Allen West.
09:37 AM on 08/13/2011
Now that another non-debate which again ignored the most important issues facing the country has ended the republican race still boils down to the question of how the born again evangelicals view the rival mormon cult because this is what will determine Romney's fate. Bachmann is too weak on the economy to last and the moron governor from Texas will probably pass her easily because the media will promote the false notion that he has a great record on jobs and ignore the fact that he is a complete religious nut case that poses a serious threat to secular democracy in America.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kevinbr38
Forward
09:33 AM on 08/13/2011
For the first time in a generation, we have a thoughtful, educated, good man in The White House. Yet everyone is out to get him,... everyone. No need to mention the obvious reason.
The scariest aspect of it all though is the interchangeable group of GOP?Tbag candidates. Puppets, one and all dangling on strings controlled by the likes of Koch Industries. Each one more hypocritical and insipid than the other.
We are at an absolute crossroads. What we do in November 2012 will determine the fate of the country for at least two generations. It will also expose who we truly are, our national soul.
I believe that sanity will in fact win the day, yet am deeply concerned at how close to the precipice we have allowed ourselves to come.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
babina
12:08 PM on 08/13/2011
Kevin, the scariest thing of all is that liberals appear to be out to get him too. I believe this is a major component of the republican strategy and it may be successful.

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/liberals-have-been-played-chumps
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Guerry Glover
12:40 PM on 08/13/2011
It is absolutely frightening to think about what would happen to our country if one of the Republicans became President and had cooperation with a Republican House and Senate... Think of who would staff the Justice department, who would be nominated to the Supreme Court, how quickly the EPA really would be defunded, whose voices would be heard in discussions about the economy, taxes and jobs...

I think Herbert Hoover would do much less damage to our country than any of the current Republicans.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kevinbr38
Forward
12:46 PM on 08/13/2011
I agree 100%.
We must get out and vote next year. This is very serious.
Fanned and faved.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jwmellott
09:32 PM on 08/13/2011
Yes, very frightening.
We might find ourselves in 3 wars, have a 8.2% undemployment rate, and get a credit rating downgrade.
08:12 AM on 08/13/2011
From the NYTimes: - "Sarah Palin arrived at the Iowa State Fair even as Rick Santorum was speaking on the fair soap box and Tim Pawlenty was grilling pork on a stick."

Sarah's mean streak surfaces again.
07:59 AM on 08/13/2011
I watched Chuck Todd report from Iowa State Fair for about 5 minutes yesterday, I counted over 35 morbidly obese people walk behind him. I actually stopped listening to him because he said people from Iowa are nice and people from Massachusetts are not. He tried to backtrack and say that they really were nice deep inside but don't like to show it. Ha Ha he's from Miami. lol. But I'm thinking that fried butter on a stick makes them fat and happy because they are going to met their maker sooner rather than later.
08:50 AM on 08/13/2011
I was too was mesmerized by the backdrop.
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nlkennedy
Realism Only
10:28 AM on 08/13/2011
Their fat, round, faces disturbed me. That includes Chuck Todd...

I hope there's enough butter on a stick to go around.
annyp
A Canuck, eh!
11:54 AM on 08/13/2011
Sarah, the mouth piece, was promoting all this deep fried crap rather than eating "peas". People are so brainwashed that if she says something then it is okay. The taxpapers will be paying the medical bills for these people.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
07:29 AM on 08/13/2011
They actually use the same divide, isolate and conqure things on each other as they use on the Public ?

We get name calling , mis direction, mis information , and misleading voter information.

Now those Absentee Ballots sent out by PAC'S or anyone other than the Government should be consider TAMPERING WITH AN ELECTION !!!!
07:57 AM on 08/13/2011
Yes they should be concidered TAMPERING WITH AN ELECTION just as much as ACORN regestering people mulitpal times and under false names should be and they should all share the same cell
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
08:37 AM on 08/13/2011
Guess you missed the part where ALL CHARGES WERE DISMISSED against ACORN -- NO OUT OF COURT SETTELEMENT LIKE BANKS AND CORPORATIONS
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
08:41 AM on 08/13/2011
I bet you also missed where the Bush DOJ took the State of NY to Court to prevent them from using State Consumer Protection Laws to stop Sub Prime Loans from hurting their Citizens.

I can only guess you also missed the the Ohio State Vote in 2004 was sent to a Corporation in Tennesse and the Vote was Flipped to make Bush the Winner !!!!!
BUSH LOST ON 2004 !!!!! Just like the FRAUD that made him President in 2000 !
We were BUSHWACKED , robbed and PLUNDERED !!!
12:56 PM on 08/13/2011
That's a Democratic 'specialty.'
I thought EVERYONE knew that.
Where have you been?
07:14 AM on 08/13/2011
Expect the Republican candidates to make rousing appeals to patriotism, even as they do everything they can to undermine and de-stabilize America.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TAMPA M
Say hello to my little friend
05:07 AM on 08/13/2011
More like a roller coaster ride through a hunted house of horrors.