How Obama Won and Clinton Lost

A year ago, Hillary Clinton was 30-points ahead over any rival in the Democratic primary. She had outraised everyone at that point by more than a two to one margin. She had the backing of the majority of the Democratic establishment. She had the backing of a popular former president who happened to be her husband. And she lost.

So what happened?

Like any story, the reasons and causes aren't easily reduced to a one paragraph explanation and there were multiple causes for why Clinton lost. I will reflect on just on a few from my perspective.

This is a race that Clinton could have won and should have won, and came very close. And her gender ultimately didn't have much to do with the loss.

The following is my attempt at explaining what happened:

1. She ran for months and months as the candidate of experience and the electorate overwhelmingly wanted change. She wasted many resources and much time arguing and building a case based on experience, and two-thirds of Democratic voters wanted change. She tried turning this around late in the game and Obama owned it at that point.

2. The political environment of this race was much different than 2004 or 2000. In those elections, strength was the key attribute the country was looking for. The country desired more of a father figure. Today, the country is looking for more a a healing presence, someone more nurturing and demonstrating an ability to bring the American family together -- more of a mothering persona. The country wanted a Mom, and Hillary gave them a Dad. She tried to hard to demonstrate her toughness and strength and voters wanted more caretaking and sensitivity.

3. Presidential campaigns are always about understanding voters fears, but then asking them to vote their hopes. Clinton did an unbelievable job speaking to voters fears but she never crossed the bridge to speak to voters hopes. She got stuck in the fear equation and voters needed her to move to hope at some point.

4. The Clinton campaign based their tactical strategy on the idea that this would be a short race and big state victories early would decide it quickly. This primary became a long race and every single caucus or primary mattered. Clinton scrambled to retool the campaign based on a longer effort, in the midst of a heated primary.

5. Hillary Clinton never separated herself enough from Bill in the course of this race. Voters wanted to see her stand on her own two feet, and understand that on her own she could do the job and it would be her presidency. Every time Bill showed up on the radar it reminded voters that she wasn't on her own. And couple this with fact that Bill Clinton, while having a great political ear and voice advocating on behalf of himself, seems to not be as adept at advocating on behalf of someone else.

6. The country is looking for something new and hip and next generational, and this is especially true for voters under 30 (the 9/11 generation). Barack Obama gave voters this, and Hillary didn't. Obama was the Ipod of this election, while Clinton was the Walkman. The Walkman is reliable and easy to use and works great, it just doesn't have the hip factor that an Ipod does.

Obviously, this is only a short list of causes from my own perspective, and equally as important was Obama's candidacy, his message, and his campaign's tactical successes.

But in the end, this race was in Hillary Clinton's hands and it is a race she should have won, no matter her opponent.

And dealing with a loss where you didn't have to lose, but for your own actions, is heartwrenching. I do feel for the process she must be going through and will go through. Peace to her.

Related:
Read more from Huffington Post bloggers on Barack Obama clinching the Democratic nomination for president

Originally published on ABC News.

Comments

[vonryansexpress]

Any analysis of the Democratic Primaries in 08 and Sen. Clinton's failure to secure the nomination that doesn't first address her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq is flawed ab initio.

The democratic voters that are Obama voters could not get their minds around the instant need for that vote on the day it was cast.

It's not the country seeking a "mom" and finding in Hillary a "dad". It's a politician that knew she needed to win more than her base in a general election but didn't understand how base much of her base had become in their unilateral view of one vote taken regarding the Iraq war.

Then, we look at the strategy of the caucus states, the role of the ex-President and the posture of the African-American community when presented with a candidate that has lineage with Black America.

It will be news to Sen. Obama that he’s the opposite of Sen. Clinton for those that voted for him because he offers them the sensitivity of a “Mom” in his campaign to become Commander in Chief.

Sen. Clinton got on the wrong side of a large slice of a slice of her own party. Before you go to compete at ‘Nationals’, you’ve got to get past the ‘trials’ in the qualifying rounds.

[hiplib]

I find it amazing that anyone published on HuffPost as a commentator could write on this subject and not even mention the Iraq war and Hilary's vote to authorise it.
THAT is why she lost and Obama won.
She voted to authorise the Iraq invasion so the Republicans could not accuse her of being unpatirotic.
She didn't care what Dems thought because she thought we would have no choice but to vote for her.
Instead we found an inspirational leader who had opposed the war from the beginning.
There would have been no point in having a Dem candidate for President who had supported Bush on the Iraq invasion, the Patriot Act and virtually everything else.
It has nothing to do with sexism.
This is a great day as far as I'm concerned.

[CCW4ME2]

Hillary pretty much clobbered Obama in the real America among voters who hold core American values. Look at Pa, W.VA, KY, IN, N.D., Texas to name only a few. In regions of south west PA she ran ahead of B.H.O. by as much as 4:1.

[HansB]

You're going to be real popular with the majority of states you call "NOT the real America, inhabited by people who DON'T hold core American values."

[savagetiger]

Wow, I'm glad I live in the fake America, the real America sounds like a real crappy place with the states you listed. Hey, why not succeed and let Hillary run those states.

See how stupid you sound? I've come to expect nothing less.

[peorgietirebiter]

With her high negatives going in she was always vulnerable, but no one anticipated an insurgent with foot soldiers and sea of $20 dollar bills. And even with that it would take an incredibly gifted challenger.
And we certainly saw that tonight in St.Paul. P.S. I'm guessing Mrs. Clinton's negatives rose significantly tonight. She turned her worst side to the camera and the press will be brutal.

[vonryansexpress]

Any analysis of the Democratic Primaries in 08 and Sen. Clinton's failure to secure the nomination that doesn't first address her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq is flawed ab initio.

The democratic voters that are Obama voters could not get their minds around the instant need for that vote on the day it was cast.

It's not the country seeking a "mom" and finding in Hillary a "dad". It's a politician that knew she needed to win more than her base in a general election but didn't understand how base much of her base had become in their unilateral view of one vote taken regarding the Iraq war.

Then, we look at the strategy of the caucus states, the role of the ex-President and the posture of the African-American community when presented with a candidate that has lineage with Black America.

It will news to Sen. Obama that he’s the opposite of Sen. Clinton for those that voted for him because he offers them the sensitivity of a “Mom” in his campaign to become Commander in Chief.

Sen. Clinton got on the wrong side of a large slice of a slice of her own party. Before you go to compete at ‘Nationals’, you’ve got to get past the ‘trials’ in the qualifying rounds.

[starboymikey]

In my view there were a lot of factors that worked against Hillary, and if it were not for her name recognition and the fact that she was Bill's wife, the race would not have been nearly as close.

What worked most against her was that she basically ran a negative race against Obama, which reminded us too much of George Bush. Instead of emphasizing how she would change the direction of the country, as Obama did, she used most of her energy to ridicule Obama. This may have sat well with her supporters, but it alienated as many people as bought into it.

The effect of this was to split the Democratic party and cause a great deal of division, which will be difficult to heal.

Add to this the fact that Obama developed a great organization and ran a brilliant, mostly positive campaign, and it's easy to see that Hillary mostly beat herself. She was like the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, a team everyone expected to win. Instead she was beaten by the equivalent of the NY Giants, a huge underdog that took advantage of the favorite's arraogance, had a solid game plan, and caught of few key breaks. I know it's a cliche, but it fits like a glove. Hillary was over-confident and lost to a more determined team.

[Speakchic]

So let me get this straight. Hillary LOST this Obama didn't win. It just fell into his hands...

[nypoet22]

in fact, it was both.

In a scenario where Hillary makes the same campaign mistakes and Obama isn't there to win it, she prevails because there isn't a candidate talented enough to capitalize on her mistakes.

In a scenario where Barack still does everything right but Clinton plans better and runs a tighter campaign, she wins because of her huge advantage at the outset.

For Barack to win required both great planning and campaigning on his part AND great mistakes on hers. Both of those things happened at the same time, which is why Barack Obama is our nominee.

[dsbsh]

Sort of. Hillary still got over 17 million votes, which smashed every primary record. She held on to longtime loyal Democratic voters, brought tons of new voters into the party, and put together an incredibly (some might say irrationally) loyal following. She made mistakes, but against anyone else she wins easily. Bottom line: Obama won for a few reasons, most of them being his positives, not her negatives: the change message, Iraq, superior fundraising, superior organization, and personal charisma.

And he won despite Clinton's popularity with core party constituents. The votes showed that for all the Democrats who hate and/or are sick of the Clintons, there are many in the party who love her. For all the talk of Obama's "problem" with Appalachia, he won pretty much the same percentage of those votes that Kerry and Gore did; it speaks less to his weakness than to the Clinton brand.

[bobbybee]

Sen Obama took every advantage, and made the most of it - but I would absolutely agree with Mr Dowd - this was Clinton's nomination to win or lose.

[Caringthinkingperson]

my reaction exactly!

[dollphingurl]

right, and it was an affirmative action measure, not on his true merit or his message resonating with millions of Americans -- and World Citizens.

[BillForObama]

How do you mean?

AdvantageObama '08

[Dzim]

It was the War in Iraq that finally cost Hilary the nomination. As far as I'm concerned, anyone who voted to give George Bush the authority to crown himself Julius Caeser is radioactive when it comes to becoming the leader of the Democratic Party.

And, as trustedcommenter says, she is "morally defective"

It is just that simple, Mr. Dowd. She did not deserve to win, she does not deserve to become President of the United States (or Vice President).

[Veneita]

Or was it 1992 all over again?

[jmpurser]

I think you got the seasonings right on this dinner of disaster but the real meat and potatoes is there aren't a lot of people who want HILLARY to be president. Sure, there are a lot who want a woman, many who just don't want a republican, and of course she had 100% name recognition. But in the end I don't think there were that many people who genuinely thought HILLARY was really presidential material. Then Obama came along and not only gave people a real alternative but he brought new voters into the mix that weren't part of the "well I might as well vote Clinton" party above.

Yes, she screwed up the details but she also simply didn't deliver the deal.

[Mojane]

I don't know what her "experience" offered her race in terms of leadership and organizational skills, all of which Obama proved to have way beyond hers. He's about 15 younger with those years of "experience" between them, but has shown he has more on the ball than she does with all of hers. She also struck me as a "me" person, and a controller.

[rubyrubyruby]

For such a big winner Michelle Obama sure looked uphappy tonight...­I wonder why?

[Rosanneofpgh]

Probably because she knows that she and her husband are in for a long, nasty campaign. Who in their right mind would be happy about that? She's seen what the rethug smear tactics are like and isnt looking forward to them.

[cheforacle]

I didn't get that impression at all. Now that I look down and see you believe HRC is gonna take this to Denver I see that you're just projecting your desires not accurately reflecting reality. Clinton already knows Obama will carry the Democratic platform forward.

[rubyrubyruby]

Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch...De­nver Denver Denver :)

[SkokieDem]

It's over. The media will now go into ignore Hillary mode, and all momentum (what very little is left) will be gone by August.

[Promise]

Hillary isolated herself from criticism and thereby lost touch with reality. She kept hammering away with what would have worked in the last century, when she and Bill were reigning monarchs. Times change and she didn't. I hope she will wake up and get a fresh start; she can still offer a lot to the country.

[DavidHealy]

7. She surrounded herself with the wrong people,
8. She hired the wrong people,
9. Her strategy seemed to be from 92 and 96,
10. She voted for the war in Iraq,
11. . . . .

[DennyCrane]

Part of being a good leader is both recognizing and learning from your mistakes. Hillary's problem is that she never admits her mistakes and blames everyone else but herself for her failures. Her latest excuse is sexism of the media. No one respects a whiner and a sore loser. If Hillary hopes to run again, she needs to own up to her mistakes and failings as a candidate.

[XME]

My thoughts exactly!

[Rosanneofpgh]

Never admitting a mistake is what got prez fucksupalot elected. I guess she thought it would work for her, too.

[mitaka]

If she hopes to re-run for Senate that's. I don't think her seat in NY is in her pocket any longer. Especially, if she appears less than enthusiastic for BO's GE campaign.