How Obama Won and Clinton Lost

A year ago, Hillary Clinton was 30-points ahead over any rival in the Democratic primary. She had outraised everyone at that point by more than a two to one margin. She had the backing of the majority of the Democratic establishment. She had the backing of a popular former president who happened to be her husband. And she lost.

So what happened?

Like any story, the reasons and causes aren't easily reduced to a one paragraph explanation and there were multiple causes for why Clinton lost. I will reflect on just on a few from my perspective.

This is a race that Clinton could have won and should have won, and came very close. And her gender ultimately didn't have much to do with the loss.

The following is my attempt at explaining what happened:

1. She ran for months and months as the candidate of experience and the electorate overwhelmingly wanted change. She wasted many resources and much time arguing and building a case based on experience, and two-thirds of Democratic voters wanted change. She tried turning this around late in the game and Obama owned it at that point.

2. The political environment of this race was much different than 2004 or 2000. In those elections, strength was the key attribute the country was looking for. The country desired more of a father figure. Today, the country is looking for more a a healing presence, someone more nurturing and demonstrating an ability to bring the American family together -- more of a mothering persona. The country wanted a Mom, and Hillary gave them a Dad. She tried to hard to demonstrate her toughness and strength and voters wanted more caretaking and sensitivity.

3. Presidential campaigns are always about understanding voters fears, but then asking them to vote their hopes. Clinton did an unbelievable job speaking to voters fears but she never crossed the bridge to speak to voters hopes. She got stuck in the fear equation and voters needed her to move to hope at some point.

4. The Clinton campaign based their tactical strategy on the idea that this would be a short race and big state victories early would decide it quickly. This primary became a long race and every single caucus or primary mattered. Clinton scrambled to retool the campaign based on a longer effort, in the midst of a heated primary.

5. Hillary Clinton never separated herself enough from Bill in the course of this race. Voters wanted to see her stand on her own two feet, and understand that on her own she could do the job and it would be her presidency. Every time Bill showed up on the radar it reminded voters that she wasn't on her own. And couple this with fact that Bill Clinton, while having a great political ear and voice advocating on behalf of himself, seems to not be as adept at advocating on behalf of someone else.

6. The country is looking for something new and hip and next generational, and this is especially true for voters under 30 (the 9/11 generation). Barack Obama gave voters this, and Hillary didn't. Obama was the Ipod of this election, while Clinton was the Walkman. The Walkman is reliable and easy to use and works great, it just doesn't have the hip factor that an Ipod does.

Obviously, this is only a short list of causes from my own perspective, and equally as important was Obama's candidacy, his message, and his campaign's tactical successes.

But in the end, this race was in Hillary Clinton's hands and it is a race she should have won, no matter her opponent.

And dealing with a loss where you didn't have to lose, but for your own actions, is heartwrenching. I do feel for the process she must be going through and will go through. Peace to her.

Related:
Read more from Huffington Post bloggers on Barack Obama clinching the Democratic nomination for president

Originally published on ABC News.

Comments

[foreffectivegovernment]

When the goal of a 51% majority of the voters in the Democratic Party is to nominate an African-American over a Woman because it is Historic and Cool, there is no way anyone could design a campaign against them.
Hillary tried but has not succeeded.
Too bad Republicans and Independents now see Obama as a Left Wing Liberal instead of a Historic and Cool candidate and will win the General Election even with McCain as their nominee.
They may have united against Hillary Clinton but you ain't seen nothing yet. He will create more Reagan Democrats than Reagan himself did because of his Liberal policies.

[djelimon]

Wake up and smell the sub-prime buddy. Deregulation and can't do government have failed Americans. His message is consistent, and popular because people are no longer buying into Friedman economics.

I hope the Repubs do their best to highlight his economic policies. They seem to get him votes.

[KYZipster]

Absolutely, nothing but surprises in this election year and I hope it continues. Everything the Republicans are doing is backfiring. The old politics used by the Clinton campaign backfired completely.

[anon004]

"When the goal of a 51% majority of the voters in the Democratic Party is to nominate an African-American over a Woman because it is Historic and Cool, there is no way anyone could design a campaign against them."

If Hillary had run a good campaign, it could have been nominating a woman would be historic and cool. She did everything to align herself with the existing power structure and the policies of the 1990s, all in a year when people hungered for change.
I'm puzzled by your statement that Obama's "liberal" policies will push independents and Republicans toward McCain, when most Hillary supporters make the argument that the policies of Obama and Hillary were very similar (but Hillary was the better choice because she was more electable, had more whites supporting her, etc.). Wouldn't Hillary's "liberal" policies have pushed independents and Republicans toward McCain, also?

[Krikkit]

That wasn't MY goal! My goal was to select the best nominee out of a pack of very good alternatives. Obama wasn't the person I expected to come out on top of that list in the early days because, like everyone else, I assumed that Clinton had it cinched from the beginning.

Until Iowa, that is. That's when I started digging into what Obama was all about, where he came from, what he was made of, who he surrounded himself with, and what his approach to the campaign would be. Very shortly it became absolutely obvious to this voter that we had not just the best candidate in Barack, but a superlative.

Then Hillary began throwing the kitchen sink and I thanked all our lucky stars that we had Obama as an alternative to her. So you see, gender and race never entered the equation for me, not even once.

[cheforacle]

Your analysis is incorrect. People - like many blacks, whites, hispanics and others - voted for him because he talks of unity, is optimistic like Reagan and showed the good judgment of opposing the war. He summons the greatness of America in a way no leader has done since Reagan.

[disgusted48]

Obama is on now giving props to Sen. Clinton. He's a class act.

[roberth48]

Its easy to give props after you become the nominee. This is not a "Class Act" Its just good old politics. Gotta get those votes from the Hillary supporters.

[S1m0n]

Ultimately, it was Hillary's peculiar strategic blindness that did her in, over and over and over.

She never seemed to be able to see into tomorrow. This happened as often on the large scale -- being unable to foresee, from 2002, a time when the nation has soured on the war, as on the small -- failing to plan for February 6, let alone for March, April or May. Even the victories she eked out along the way were pyrrhic: the tactic that won her Kentucky and West Virginia would be fatal in the General, and fatal to her party.

Even this evening, my neighbour tells me, Hillary spent much of her speech saying "I'm not making any decisions, tonight!", as if she was startled and had had no time to think. Hillary, please tell us all that the events of this evening didn't come as a surprise and catch you unaware. Please! You thought you had what it takes to be Chief executive, and you couldn't come up with a plan for the most predictable political event of this election cycle, to date?

In contrast, Barack Obama was at least one move ahead of Hillary at every moment of the race, and it showed. His calm came from taking the long view, and knowing that his setbacks would only be temporary, because he'd taken the steps to make them so before they'd even occurred.

[scarfoot]

"His calm came from taking the long view, and knowing that his setbacks would only be temporary, because he'd taken the steps to make them so before they'd even occurred."

Perhaps his calm long confident view came from the knowledge that this is not his last chance. He could afford to take a chance on a novel, hopeful strategy. He had little to loose. Every victory was an encouraging hope generating historic first. Confidence was eventually impervious to losses as every victory was in a fundamental way unexpected in a way that no victory, no matter how large, could be for Hillary, the every presumptive front runner.

[catfood]

Her pandering for blue-collar votes with photo ops of her drinking a shot, or talking about learning to shoot a gun rubbed me the wrong way, although she had lost me long before that with her endorsement of John McCain (only she and McCain are qualified to be Commander In Chief).

[burnt]

"Obviously, this is only a short list of causes..."

Here's even a shorter list:

She did it to herself. It was Obama's to win and she did everthing possible to make that happen... and disgrace herself in the course of events. Her legacy of complete and utter failure will be hard to top.

[Skepticat]

Very Good analysis - hope some of the more rabid Hillary supporters read it and reflect. Some excellent lessons for other women considering a career in politics.

[PADDYWHACK]

What about the wawah?

[PKSSK]

Great, articulate and honest post that speaks to the reality of Obama's amazing success. Thank you Matt!!

[arkgrfx61]

Excellent post - very thoughtful.

[trustedcommenter]

She lost because she's morally defective so she deserved to lose. Sometimes things are just that simple.

[MinuteMan]

And sometimes there is justice for the high-and-mighty!

[Susanfrom29]

Good summary, for all of her claims of going on a "listening" tour, she never really heard any of our concerns or hopes.

[LizzieLouWho]

Pure and simple, Senator Clinton lost because she was in this race for *her ambitions* rather than to serve the country. Senator Obama was in this race to serve the country rather than himself. At least, that's the difference I see.

I also see a passion for justice and thoughtfulness from Senator Obama that makes me truly believe that he will urge all of us to go beyond our rather arbitrary party affiliations and to connect as people...n­eighbors, concerned citizens..­.rather than continue to bitterly divide and snipe at each other across party lines.

Maybe "change" can't be quantified, but I'll damn sure follow the person pushing change and hope than the person who's so desperate to achieve power that s/he can't connect with the country.

[STORMATSEA]

This is all bullshit.
Sorry folks, but, the Clintins didn't cause this. Not Bill Whose "diatribes" as they were constantly reported in the Huffpo, were well laid out arguments to other bullshit. Nor Hillary for having the nerve to actually campain and point out her opponets weakness.
The media wants a Dem. running for President who will be hard pressed to win.
As much as I wasn't a Hillary fan and I know lots of "blue collar men" (I work with them)
who are threatened by strong females, they and the females of the same ilk are more threatened by a mixed race individual with african blood. (just like so many black Americans
his Fathers race is all that matters, but, with a negative spin).
People are also threatened by his intellect. Remember the hated Kerry because he could construct a sentence and loved the shrub because he is a drooling, dumb ass.
The press is owned by a small group of money whores and they need a republican to continue to give them the company store... every one else be damned.
So if Johnny Mc. becomes Pres. pat yourselves on the back. They did it to you again and you let them