President Obama's stand today in support of gay marriage has unleashed much conversation surrounding the political impact of his statement and the effect it could have on the electoral map and election this November. And part of this discussion has repeated a myth that I have tried to dispel before and will try again.
The gay marriage initiatives in 2004 on the ballot in 11 states had no discernable effect on turnout among conservatives. Yes, that's right, none. Not even in Ohio, which was a swing state in 2004, won in a close contest by former President Bush.
Today, the myth is repeated over and over that Bush beat Kerry in Ohio in part because of the gay marriage initiative on the ballot. The facts and data simply do not support that conclusion. Yes, conservative turnout was up in Ohio by five percentage points. It was also up five percentage points nationally. And if you look at the conservative turnout increase in the 11 states verses the other 39 states that didn't have gay marriage on the ballot, the conservative turnout was up exactly the same.
Further, if you look at white evangelical and conservative turnout in swing states with gay marriage initiatives versus swing states without them (such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Nevada), again, there is no statistical difference in turnout increases among these groups. Yes, that is right, increase in turnout among key conservative groups did not vary between swing states with and without these initiatives on the ballot.
In 2004, I worked on President Bush's campaign as chief strategist and was deeply involved in examining and determining which issues would motivate conservatives and evangelicals. In all that analysis preparing for the campaign, not a single social issue rose to the top five motivators (not abortion, not gay marriage, not a one). The motivators for that election were national security issues, issues concerning the budget and taxes, and issues surrounding the economy. And these are the issues the campaign put all their resources behind and I constantly advocated internally as our focus.
So again, let's put this myth to rest. Gay marriage initiatives in 2004 did not affect the turnout among conservative voters in any way. It's important as analysts for us to look at the data as it stands and try not to repeat myths just because either side promulgates them over and over to serve their purposes.
Cross-posted from ABC News.
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Chris Weigant: Obama's Gay Marriage Rollout
Chris Kromm: What Happened in North Carolina?
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 |
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| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
I recall Bush running of federal amendment to ban gay marriage. I don't forget like the average american.
The turnout was not higher in states with these ballot initiatives, therefore marriage equality had no effect. Sorry, but you neglect the fairly glaring possibility that this wedge issue drove conservative turnout up equally in all states, irrespective of whether there was a ballot initiative in each state.
Total baloney. The 2004 turnout percentages in Ohio's more conservative counties prove otherwise.
I've never heard that myth. But neither Kerry nor Bush came out in favor of gay marriage, so this isn't really a good analogy.
President's swear to uphold the Constitution. It astonishes me that people would find a presidential statement that all citizens should have the same rights to be controversial. It is not even a political issue -- but an issue of individual rights, fairness and equity. I am also surprised that more Republicans are not moving to support equality. With polls showing that young people overwhelmingly favor equality, the party is jeopardizing its future prospects by defending prejudice.
The Holier-Than-Thou Party spent hundreds of millions of dollars bashing Gays in every State as they are currently doing this year (well represented in Mr. Saint's --the self-proclaimed Political Pope-- campaign which backfired in his face).
The RepubliCon Playbook calls it Dirty Little Tricks (named after pres. Nixion) in which after the attack ads the candidates deny they sponsored the culture war. Sound familiar?
Mr. Roman (who wants to be Caesar) is the most famous candidate in Denial about his bashing of minorities during the RepubliCon Primary campaign (Labor Day 2011 thru the current 2012).
The lesson that we all learned from the Bush Campaign under Rowe is that their actions belie their words.
Another lesson we all know from the RepubliCon Party is that they always want to rewrite the history of their fiascoes which we all witnessed in person.
both candidates had the same position
and they still do for the 2012 election
they just talk about it differently to trick their ignorant supporters
Instead of you all trying to convince everyone that this move will be politically meaningless to the President, I suggest that people wake up and start taking some measures to counter this. I am an AA evangelical Christian and I know for a fact that this issue peeled several percentage points of votes to Bush. They're already grumbling at my church. I don't expect them to flock to Romney because they have a moral issue with him too, but they will choose not to vote. You can ignore this, but mark my words, it will happen again. I sure hope the LGBT community and the proponents of this initiative can compensate for it.
Are you able to separate your personal beliefs on the matter and accept the fact that all Americans are entitled to "equal protection under the law," regardless of race, sex, religion, creed, or sexual orientation?
That's what this is all about, isn't it?
Is it just because I stated that I was an evangelical Christian that you are automatically poised for some battle and decide to pepper me with all your silly questions, instead of recognizing the main point of my post? Is that what this is all about?
Obama has restored a lot of respect from me by taking this position, but I'm afraid he might have lost he election by it.