War in Iraq: Wisdom of Crowds

As we approach the September reports on Iraq, the public debate over our military presence there has once again intensified. Both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are ratcheting up the rhetoric about the best course of action, with the president using a pit stop in Iraq as a backdrop for his latest remarks. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats on the Hill are engaged in heated discussions -- both within and between their caucuses. Adding to the heat, several third party groups have begun advertising efforts to try and push elected officials one way or the other.

As the Beltway ramps up the debate, I believe it is a good and appropriate time to reflect on the opinions of the people those in our nation's capital serve -- the American public -- and specifically what they believe is the right direction in Iraq. I write this because I am a big believer in the "wisdom of crowds," which is to say that I put just more trust in the collective opinion of 300 million decent, honest and caring Americans than in the elites living in Washington, DC.

This is not to say politics and polls should determine substantive public policy especially regarding a war, but politics and polls should also not be used to thwart the will of the citizens of this country.

Having been a rather keen observer of the American public for more than 20 years and having helped elect and re-elect folks from the State House to the White House I wanted to share with you an analysis of where the public currently stands on the war in Iraq. I share these thoughts as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. While I did serve as Chief Strategist for President Bush in the 2004 campaign, I now consider myself an independent and feel it is a good time to offer what I hope you will find is a measured, reflective and objective analysis of where Democrats and Independents and a large portion of Republican voters stand on the Iraq war today.

1. In the public's mind, the Iraq War was a mistake, and continuing the status quo is simply continuing on with a mistake. As a result, most Americans now view the situation in Iraq as a "rearview" mirror issue -- meaning that the public believes it is time to focus on the process of ending our involvement and getting out quickly. They see American troops as targets in a place we aren't wanted, and they desire a plan which achieves responsible withdrawal in the quickest and safest way.

2. The public does not see withdrawal from Iraq as a signal America doesn't support the troops. In fact, the public sees removing the troops from harm's way and having them in a place where the mission is supported, welcomed and understood as the most proper way to support our troops.

3. The public is waiting for leaders from both political parties to stand up to the president and say enough is enough. They would like this situation resolved -- and soon -- and there is no other solution acceptable to them other than bringing the troops home. The public will support leaders who would use funding decisions as a way to encourage and push the president to resolve this situation quickly.

4. The war in Iraq is now seen exclusively as a foreign policy concern, and the American public no longer supports the initiative as part of national security. This is in stark contrast to the war's beginning -- at inception, the public perceived it as directly related to fighting terrorism, and thus it was seen as a domestic policy issue connected to homeland security. Not surprisingly, the public gave it broad support. Today, this is no longer the case -- the dynamic has changed and most of the public sees no "positive" relationship between the fight against terrorism and the war in Iraq.

I hope this analysis helps bolster the leaders who are ready to stand up for the troops and for the vast majority of Americans in this country. Not only is truth on those leaders' side, but politics is as well. It is my opinion that the best leaders are those who trust the will of the public, even if that means changing direction or admitting a mistake. This is true leadership and the kind of leadership our nation has always desired.

Comments

[thepathforward]

Congress (including Dems) will likely cave in again regarding Iraq. But, where is the focus on what happened on 9/11/01 and the organization behind the attack where over 3,000 of our fellow Americans lost their lives? What shall we say regarding the great irony as to why we are in this war in Iraq (with no proven connections to 9/11) and with questionable progress and no perceivable end, while the organization reported to be responsible for 9/11 remains, without our equal offensive. In fact, according to our own intelligence agencies Bin Laden and Al Queda are reported to be reenergizing in their safe harbor in Pakistan. What is the administration (tangibly) doing about this? Instead, and beyond comprehension, this administration has publicly stated on many occasions that they are no longer concerned about Bin Laden, despite 9/11.
Instead we are in an unjustified and continually escalating (civil) war in a nation where (it has been reported) over 500,000 innocent Iraqi men, women, and children, and nearly 4,000 of our fellow citizens in the military have been killed to date. And the continuation of this strange war, while ignoring the apparent resurgence of Bin Laden’s organization, goes on without true political challenge.
Only one presidential candidate, Sen Obama, has IMO shown the wisdom, intuition, and “presidential” type leadership in addressing this issue. Others, including many presidential candidates, amazingly criticized him for his concerns about this reported reemerging threat, and the need for addressing this reemerging threat as intelligence may provide the opportunities.
How does one look at these great ironies, and the criticism toward the only outspoken political leader who seems to discern the seriousness of all of this (Sen. Obama), and not conclude that the majority of other current politicians, media, etc. supporting this continuing war in Iraq, must have truly gone off the deep end. After so many years of political ineffectiveness, spinelessness, triangulation, and unyielding lobby allegiance, they simply can’t help themselves anymore, and can no longer discern the priority regarding the original offensive in Afghanistan, etc. versus this strange diversion in Iraq.

[Meah]

Please also add that the majority of the American people supported the war because they were lied to by this administration, and believed what they were being told.

Apparently everyone but Powell knew there were no WMDs.

And some of us never believed any of it.

[pablopianos]

Thank-you, Matthew Dowd. I appreciate an opinion from someone without a lot of positive or negative adjectives. Your verbosity is tempered with clarity.

Sometime, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the war cost/American taxpayer. I'm confident the IRS is capable enough to send war-related monthly invoice statements to each taxpayer.
In this way, we -- who believe enough in financing a war will be able to send their check of support for their fair share.

If logic doesn't work for ending pre-emptive military interventions, maybe the idea of paying each month to cover the respective costs will sober them up.

[deminmo]

Is anyone watching "The Iraqi Report Card"? I just heard something come out of Mr. Skeltons mouth that I never expected to hear, and that is "prove that this is working and worth sustaining­." I know from having corresponded with Mr. Skelton that he is pro-troup and pro-war and anti-impeachment. But, I do know he listens to people. And he has some power in Washington. So maybe someone is looking at the whole picture.

[Eggman491]

Mistake? Mistake? How about crime? The objective is not to win anything it is simply about having a war and filling the coffers of the profiteers. This has nothing to do with a mistake which could imply good intentions. There were never any good intentions here.

[esquire07]

Yea.... "A Mistake."

Thats what you call half a million dead Iraqis, 4 Million refugees, 4000 dead Americans, destruction of a soverign nation.

All for LIES. All for Oil. All for Money in Bush/Cheney pockets.

What a disgusting Country the United States has become. A mistake.

[Kendo Nagasaki]

Try reading

Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

Burn the witches.

[Kendo Nagasaki]

When you are in a hole in Iraq keep digging.

Bush is digging for oil

but so far only blood bubbles up.

We have to shed more blood to justify the blood already lost, don't we ?

with best wishes from your compassionate conservative neocon-exxon party.

[cadawa]

Americans don't "believe" we ought to leave Iraq, they demand it.
You have probably noticed that the no one is listening.

[NotaBeliever]

Preachin' to the choir. We've all known the facts of the matter for some time now. We elected a congress to get us out of that war in Iraq, and they're just doing what politicians do ... playing politics with the other politicians ... and who would have ever thought the politicians would continue playing their unproductive games in the face of so much deep and widespread public disapproval? Unhappiness out here.

[deminmo]

Amen. And Thank You!

[Tremonius]

"...I put just more trust in the collective opinion of 300 million decent, honest and caring Americans than in the elites living in Washington, DC."

One of the little-noted public pandering habits is this paean to the public. It isn't warranted, by any means. The posturing pols in DC are all there at the behest and connivance of this esteemed public, which is the subject of numerous studies detailing how they cannot find their very backsides on a map and they believe in large numbers 9/11 was planned and executed by the devil or Saddam, either or both.

One of my favorite results from polling this marvelous US citizenry was in January 1999. In large numbers, the public proclaimed that Clinton's private life should be of absolutely no concern to the public, and that he should come clean about every detail of his affair with the intern.

There's your public, gawd help us.

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

For crowds to produce wisdom (and, generally speaking, I agree with you), two elements must be present:

1) Publically available information must be accurate, and
2) The "crowd" must be diverse in its make-up and thinking.

Sadly, both preconditions were utterly absent in the lead-up to the Iraq atrocity. PNAC's next victim - Iran - will fare no better, since the administration you served - and the entrenched elites to which they bow - are very, very good at eliminating those pre-conditions.

[Kungfublood]

If the law makers would just make it impossible for Bush to put so much as a single penny in his corrupt pocket we would not be at war.

[film381]

Matthew,

It is plain to see that politicians are NOT serving their constituants and they only seek election to gain power and recognition and what ever graft they can get without getting caught at the taxpayers expense...

The flip side is that it is ALL the taxpayers fault... they have NOT held accountable all those promises and boastful ideas that were made before those pompus seats in the Congress promised.

Your column is well aimed and correct... the problem now rests in the PEOPLE... NOT the politicans.

Time to throw the bums out of D.C. and get ALL NEW fresh blood in those seats. If that happened, I belive that the new politicians will correct things because there by then, all the dense cigar smoke will have cleared and the "Ole boy" network will be gone...