War in Iraq: Wisdom of Crowds

As we approach the September reports on Iraq, the public debate over our military presence there has once again intensified. Both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are ratcheting up the rhetoric about the best course of action, with the president using a pit stop in Iraq as a backdrop for his latest remarks. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats on the Hill are engaged in heated discussions -- both within and between their caucuses. Adding to the heat, several third party groups have begun advertising efforts to try and push elected officials one way or the other.

As the Beltway ramps up the debate, I believe it is a good and appropriate time to reflect on the opinions of the people those in our nation's capital serve -- the American public -- and specifically what they believe is the right direction in Iraq. I write this because I am a big believer in the "wisdom of crowds," which is to say that I put just more trust in the collective opinion of 300 million decent, honest and caring Americans than in the elites living in Washington, DC.

This is not to say politics and polls should determine substantive public policy especially regarding a war, but politics and polls should also not be used to thwart the will of the citizens of this country.

Having been a rather keen observer of the American public for more than 20 years and having helped elect and re-elect folks from the State House to the White House I wanted to share with you an analysis of where the public currently stands on the war in Iraq. I share these thoughts as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. While I did serve as Chief Strategist for President Bush in the 2004 campaign, I now consider myself an independent and feel it is a good time to offer what I hope you will find is a measured, reflective and objective analysis of where Democrats and Independents and a large portion of Republican voters stand on the Iraq war today.

1. In the public's mind, the Iraq War was a mistake, and continuing the status quo is simply continuing on with a mistake. As a result, most Americans now view the situation in Iraq as a "rearview" mirror issue -- meaning that the public believes it is time to focus on the process of ending our involvement and getting out quickly. They see American troops as targets in a place we aren't wanted, and they desire a plan which achieves responsible withdrawal in the quickest and safest way.

2. The public does not see withdrawal from Iraq as a signal America doesn't support the troops. In fact, the public sees removing the troops from harm's way and having them in a place where the mission is supported, welcomed and understood as the most proper way to support our troops.

3. The public is waiting for leaders from both political parties to stand up to the president and say enough is enough. They would like this situation resolved -- and soon -- and there is no other solution acceptable to them other than bringing the troops home. The public will support leaders who would use funding decisions as a way to encourage and push the president to resolve this situation quickly.

4. The war in Iraq is now seen exclusively as a foreign policy concern, and the American public no longer supports the initiative as part of national security. This is in stark contrast to the war's beginning -- at inception, the public perceived it as directly related to fighting terrorism, and thus it was seen as a domestic policy issue connected to homeland security. Not surprisingly, the public gave it broad support. Today, this is no longer the case -- the dynamic has changed and most of the public sees no "positive" relationship between the fight against terrorism and the war in Iraq.

I hope this analysis helps bolster the leaders who are ready to stand up for the troops and for the vast majority of Americans in this country. Not only is truth on those leaders' side, but politics is as well. It is my opinion that the best leaders are those who trust the will of the public, even if that means changing direction or admitting a mistake. This is true leadership and the kind of leadership our nation has always desired.

Comments

[tiggersthotfulspot]

"300 million decent, honest and caring Americans"... who didn't bother to get up from watching "Survivor" or going to the mall to find out the facts, while their country's war criminal President slaughtered a bunch of innocent people in a country that did *NOT* attack us and was no threat to us. And even after the facts became hard to avoid, they re-elected the war criminal.

You got the government you deserve.

[opines]

The American public turned against the war, not because of lies about WMDs and a Saddam-al Qaeda connection.

The lie that turned them was that it would be quick and easy. Most understood that it was a war for oil and if we could carry off that theft cheaply they would look the other way.

But it turned out to be too costly in blood, dollars and national honor, so the public turned---as they did with Vietnam. Like Nam, given time, most will say they always opposed the war.

Durn! If only that puppet parliament would have approved the Hydrocarbon Heist Law like they were supposed to do.

[mari2JJ]

Thank you for your honesty. It is especially to the point since you have given Mr. Bush your support int he past. In this discussion, the administration seeks to frame the debate by labeling those of us who feel the war has been mishandled as being cut and runners. Actually we are very well informed and we see the reputation of our wonderful country being dragged through the mud with no end in sight.

I trust that more and more Bush supporters will lend their voices with such a reasoned statement so we can get over the purely partisan labels and all think of what is best for our country. Your article will be a big help in that direction.

[WorkingClass]

Former supporters and enablers of President Clown Shoes should apologize and then remain silent and out of sight. They are covered in the blood of the innocent and they are responsible for the death of our republic. They should be ashamed to appear in public.

[DieboldHacker]

There are vast swaths of this land where Tyranny of the Masses is a really bad idea for, say, colored folk, for example. In general, it is exactly what this government was *not* supposed to be.

It was recognized 230 years ago that the elites got the education, had the time and inclination to do research and were therefore more capable of making good decisions. Today, we all have access to information, but that doesn't mean that the general populace is informed. Or that they would want to be. Many seem to be perfectly happy with fox news.

[grendl]

Thanks for the info.

The fact that their wishes are being ignored should be grounds for impeachment of this president. It was bad enough we bought the weapons of mass destruction as an excuse for invading and staying in Iraq, but this is the second lie rationalizing our continued presence in that country which has been exposed, that we are there to bring Iraqi’s Democracy, while now siding with the minority Sunni party in a country predominantly Shia.

How is that in keeping with the tenets of democracy. It sends a message that you can vote your leaders into power as long as they’re friendly with the United States. And if they just so happen to be in bed with Iran, we can call a do over.

[MissingAmerica]

Well said, Matthew, with one exception. We, the people of this great country, also want this administration removed from Washington. Bush has been, and continues to be, a disaster of maximum proportions, disastrous decisions which include war crimes and violations of the Geneva Convention. We want Bush and Cheney removed, and we want them impeached. Many in positions of authority swore allegiance to our Constitution and, instead, gave their allegiance to the President, at great expense to America. We want all held accountable for their actions, allowing us to send a message to any future administrations that treason will not be tolerated -- if they want to dance, they'd better be ready to pay the piper.

[Ani]

I just watched Alive Day on HBO.

I'm left without words to express the anguish of my soul at this moment.

For the ten soldiers interviewed in the special, there were no questions put to them about right or wrong, black or white, good or bad, war or no war. They simply told their stories ... they simply served ... they simply are forever changed.

I wish someone could help me understand the heart of those who send other people's children to war.

I wish ... I wish ...

[Qbear]

EVERY member of Congress

We The People are getting OUT of Iraq, with or without YOU.

[Boadicea]

I agree with you about the collective wisdom of the many, but of course, then there's lynching.... crowds can be lead, and it's my view that the Republicans, aided and abetted by some high profile Democrats, unethically lead the American people to originally support the war.

If all Americans had known the truth, they never would have supported the war in the first place.

Bill Clinton said it best - the wisdom of crowds only works when they are given the truth. This administration did not do that.

Get us out, dammit.

[Earthsaver]

It is very comforting to acknowledge that the American have now begun to awake and to see how their US administration under the rulers, top terrorists and mass morders Bush and Cheney have betrayed them like a drum. And believe me, what comes up these days is only the peak of the iceberg.
My dear fellow Americans: only you can make the true change happen. BE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN THE WORLD!

[OldKnute]

Well, I think the war in Iraq was a good thing.

Unwittingly, George Bush has driven a wooden stake into the heart of the parasitical VAMPIRE of BIG OIL, Big Business, and Business as usual.

BUT,,,, Never before have I seen a time when people are more in tune with current and educating themselves as to the who, what, when, where and HOW MUCH MONEY of our national and local issues.

Agree or disagree, the people are awake!

The other thing of value; it is very easy to determine the FOX News, TALKING POINTERS, Fear and Hate mongers from others that clearly are doing the hard research.

The SHOCKER MOMS that voted for George Bush in 2004 are now looking at their children approaching military age and their viewpoints have changed considerably.

The rise in secular terrorism internal to Iraq means that battle hardened, BLOOD LUST extremists are being trained and created by the thousands. “You break it you own it” now takes on true meaning that is dire.

Facts are facts.

From a cave in Afghanistan a single man has called out our little bully Bush and his SIX-GUN diplomacy, enticed him into violating Arab lands, Bush living up to every bin Laden prediction, our5 soldiers to spin on their heals to try to understand a failed and ever-changing foreign policy, while they die a death of a thousand cuts.

Our economy in a shambles; the gates open to fraud and extortion.
Banking, is having to totally reinvent standards and practices.
Climate Change is real when your basement is flooded for the 5th time.
Abortion is an issue but we don’t know if we want the FBI following our pregnant daughters around for 9 months.
Wiretapping is real, not just a myth to be denied on FOX News.
We tortured.
We DO have secret prisons.
Our army is stretched to the near breaking point.
Our solders are committing suicide.
Or national debt is higher than ALL previous presidents spending, COMBINED.
Businesses are racked with compliances issues, the laws changing each day.

Sheeese!!!!!!

All the best

Knute

[frankifrost]

THE PEOPLE OWN THE GOVERNMENT; IF NOT, THEN THIS IS NOT A DEMOCRACY (DEMO=PEOPLE).
FACE IT PEOPLE, THIS IS NO LONGER A DEMOCRACY OR A REPUBLIC.
WHAT IS IT THEN.
WELL ACCORDING TO THE DICTIONARY, IT IS A FASCIST STATE: A CORPORATE CONTROLLED GOVERNMENT.

[Shizzlewhizzle]

Im not sure whos running America since Shron stroked out. Perhaps John Bolton. Perle is in hidding.

[frankifrost]

THE GOOD COP, BAD COP, CORPORATE CRONIES IN WASHINGTON WILL NEVER IMPEACH ONE OF THEIR OWN.
IF THERE WAS EVER THE EXISTENCE OF RIGHT AND WRONG IN WASHINGTON, THEN IMPEACHMENT WOULD BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY.

[flobflo]

The rightwingers will use the "fund the troops or they will be hanging off of the helicopters without bullets on top of the Baghdad embassy when the defeatocrats have us retreat" meme. Bush is trying to run out the clock. Simple as that. There is no plan other than retire in 09 and then blame the Dems for not keeping the quagmire rolling. Oh and thanks for george bush Matthew!!

[TurgidCaterwauling]

This is in stark contrast to the war's beginning -- at inception, the public perceived it as directly related to fighting terrorism, and thus it was seen as a domestic policy issue connected to homeland security.

But many of us did not see it this way. We knew Bid Laden was the enemy not Saddam. I daresay most of us who read HuffPo arrived at your conclusions during the weeks after GW declared war. My guess is about the only person who this might be news to is you.

[freebrew]

Many of us saw the sham well before the invasion of a sovereign nation. Peruse the archives of a few of the 'left' blogs and you'll see who knew what and when. It was all too obvious from the beginning that the use of lies and altered intelligence was behind it.
But the Fake News viewers and Shout Radio was all it took to convince the brain-dead right ti invade a country that was no threat at all.

Personally, I'd like to see the minutes of cheney's energy meetings...