There is a long history of plentiful and inexpensive energy aiding technological development and the substitution of capital for labor. The age of oil has been a period of rapid and rapidly rising production of goods, services and wealth. The ability to harness technology-driven productivity and grow output has transformed...

Listening to debates about housing, oil and commodity prices is surreal. Housing and medical costs are huge components of household spending. In the first 3 months of 2008 housing and medical costs represented 33% of personal consumption expenditures, or $3.3 trillion. Across the same three months sky high energy...

It has been a very hard year. House prices and payments are falling. Gas and food prices are rising. There are fewer and fewer help wanted sings and wages have not kept up with inflation. All four support legs of modern middle class families are wobbly. The four legs are...

Two great issues define this moment in America. War in Iraq and economic turbulence dominate debates, fears and campaigns. Optimistic pitches can be heard about the effectiveness of the surge in Iraq and policy responses to sub-prime driven economic pain. Many and influential voices loudly tout economic and military success....

Through the second half of 2007, to the collapse of Bear Stearns, US equity indexes were leading America into recession. Markets were discounting shares to reflect serious and prolonged earnings and profit reduction. Stock prices were indicating a long hard fall. Serious turmoil in the financial industry, housing collapse and...

Economic fear grips millions of American families. We are afraid of the recession that has arrived and the economic changes that have been taking shape. We are afraid for our absolute and relative performance. Unemployment, credit restrictions, rising food and energy costs are on our minds. Falling house prices and...

As we face up to the recession -- or near recession -- that grips us, disturbing trends are taking shape. Early pain was concentrated in all things housing. Home prices, construction, home improvement have been sliding since August 2007. Months of loud pronouncement reassured that troubles would be small and...

A week ago, Sunday March 16, 2008, the structure of American finance shifted. This was lost to public view behind billows of smoke. The acrid smell of burnt out jobs, dreams, pensions and investments wafted down Park Avenue. The financial press reported the dramatic imagery and the fire. Precious few...

For years we have been a nation focused on security. We have not had any substantive debate about what security means. It is high time this debate was had. Economic and international security issues are likely to dominate our up-coming presidential election. I would like to suggest that we examine...

The steady beat of bad economic news keeps falling like rain on a tin roof. We don't hear each drop or acknowledge its presence but, we sure can tell it is coming down out there. We know that hundreds of thousands of families are dealing with foreclosures. Realty...

As you sit down to read this, several debates rage. In financial markets and boardrooms decisions are made and assets repositioned based on opinion regarding the presence or absence of recession. If we are in or headed to recession, how deep and how long will it be? Around kitchen tables,...

Statistics are cold and distant. No blood pumps through their veins, stress never causes their hands to tremble and no tears ever form in the corners of their eyes. They are a cold calculus of the pains and joys experienced by millions of American fathers, mothers, sons, sisters, daughters and...

The housing market slump is likely to produce over $3.15 trillion in paper losses. Our stock market swoon has already produced $3 trillion in paper losses in the total value of all American shares since November. Not to fear, our selfless agents in Washington have June dated $600-$1200 checks that...

On January 10, 2008 Moody's signaled its belief that the long-term credit rating of US Government debt might have to be cut-downgraded -- below AAA. The firm was clearly neither downgrading nor, about to downgrade in the foreseeable future. It was a warning about pension costs, healthcare costs and...

I am not an opponent/proponent of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or anyone else. I am in no way writing to convince anyone to vote for or against any candidate. I do believe in playing follow the money. If you don't, this article will only confuse and upset you.

Hillary Clinton...

There is always pressure to sketch ones view of the New Year. It is as though we all get together and pretend that an arbitrary change in the calendar year must, by virtue of occurrence, signify real change. The pressure for a new outlook is particularly great after a rough...

Our saga of consumer debt difficulty continues to metastasize and generate tumors in far flung economic organs. Today (December 19, 2007) it became clear that cities and towns will be facing less available credit and paying more for the credit they get. This is important because it means that Americans...

Sometimes a walloping dose of disconfirming information is good medicine. I would like to flatter myself in thinking that I will be sharing some of that sour treatment today. I leave you to judge. We are surely going to look at the interplay of China, our once precious greenback (the...

Public economic discussion is dominated by the disclosure of trouble, panic, calm and the return of optimism. Within a few weeks, reality creeps back into focus. Reality brings further disclosure of trouble. The cycle repeats. Month after month of reassurances ring hallow. Further elaborate pronouncements and Federal Reserve credit action...

There is so much chatter, yet no one is mentioning the obvious. What if this credit crisis extends beyond the subprime realm? It already has, but no one really ever discusses broad social ramification or risk. We talk about subprime borrowers and their high default rates. Subprime default rates are...