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Max Fraad Wolff

Max Fraad Wolff

Posted: September 30, 2010 03:14 PM

Our Future Looks Poorer

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On September 28, 2010 the U.S. Census released the 2009 American Consumer Survey. This survey reveals that last year was very difficult for America. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tells us that the "Great Recession" officially ended in December of 2009. Census data suggests that 2009 was a year of accelerating economic pain and loss. The labor force of the U.S. shrank by more than 130,000 between 2008 and 2009. The median family income decreased by $2,254 or 3.5%. Median is a better measure than average because the median family income sets the exact middle of the income distribution. Half of all families earn less than the median income and half of all families earn more than the median income. Average or mean measures are less sensitive to income distribution. The median income for all workers in the U.S. fell from $29,868 in 2008 to $28,365 in 2009. Median worker income declined by $1,503, or 5%. A staggering 48% of households earned less than $50,000 per year in 2008. In 2009, 49.8% of households earned less than $50,000. Income per person in the U.S., per capita income, declined from $27,589 in 2008 to $26,409 in 2009. Our per capita income declined by $1,108 or 4% in 2009.

Are you still surprised by anger at the polls? Might these numbers explain the seeming willingness of voters to try anything that looks different? Rising inequality, falling incomes and increasing poverty are very pronounced. When the data comes in next year for 2010, it is likely to show us that 2008-2010 witnessed a historic increase in poverty and inequality in the U.S. Our massive budget deficits have been directed in ways that lower poverty, increase employment or reduce inequality. Surely, these numbers would have been worse absent many programs. That is true and valid. However, it is way too hard out there to be smug about how much worse it could have been. Yes, it could be worse. Yes, it is getting worse.

Below follows a sketch of just how bad it is- from a poverty perspective.

2010-09-28-1poverty.GIF

It is clear that the younger you are in America, the more likely you are to live in poverty. Young Americans are nearly twice as likely to be poor as older Americans. The below bar graph makes clear that this is true for African American, black, citizens as well as all citizens. The graphs in this short article are all made from newly released census data.

2010-09-28-2poverty.GIF

Being American gives you 1 in 7 chance of being poor. Being young raises this chance to 1 in 4. Being black in America means a 1 in 4 chance of being poor. Being young and black raises your chance of being poor up to 1 in 2.5. Dropping out of high school puts you on a path to a 1 in 4 chance of poverty. Finishing college dropped your chance of poverty in 2009 to 1 in 25. 18.7% of Americans living in major cities -- principle cities -- spent 2009 living in poverty. 27.8% of Americans living in major cities and under 18 years of age spent 2009 living in poverty. Near 1 in 3 young, urban Americans were poor last year. 9% of young, urban Americans under 18 earned less than half the poverty level income of $10,800 in 2009. Nearly 1 in 10 young, under 18, urban, Americans lived in extreme poverty in 2009. More than 1 in 3, 36% of female headed households lived in poverty in 2009. 17.3% of these female headed households lived in extreme poverty -- earning less than 50% of the federal poverty level. Young (under 18), Americans living with non relatives experienced a staggering 67% poverty rate in 2009.

2010-09-28-3poverty.GIF

 
On September 28, 2010 the U.S. Census released the 2009 American Consumer Survey. This survey reveals that last year was very difficult for America. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) te...
On September 28, 2010 the U.S. Census released the 2009 American Consumer Survey. This survey reveals that last year was very difficult for America. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) te...
 
 
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07:00 PM on 10/02/2010
The author is using the very conservative numbers from the Federal Government. When world averages are used they are corrected for purchasing power parity PPP. If these corrections are made you will see that the numbers used under report poverty. One of the many problems with poverty is the ignornace it tends to create.
06:17 PM on 10/02/2010
Two thirds of the world population lives on less than $2 per day. The author is using a very skewed view of "poverty".
06:29 AM on 10/03/2010
While true, you need to take into account the purchasing power of the lower wages in other countries. There are thousands of products that are sold in other countries at a fraction of the price paid by consumers in the USA. One of the biggest growing industries is medical tourism. As an example, many medical procedures outside the USA are 25% or less of what the same procedure cost in the US
02:46 PM on 10/05/2010
Actually there are not "thousands of products that are sold in other countries at a fraction of the price paid by consumers in the USA", unless they are subsidized by the state (think oil in Venuzela), have tarrifs or are very difficult to move. I will agree that there are thousands of services that are sold in other countries at a fraction of the price.

If people were willing to buy toys with lead paint, baby formula with poison and small choking hazzard toys, like the third world our dollar would go futher.
01:57 PM on 10/01/2010
As the data suggest one of the clearest routes out of poverty is education. Unfortunately in America we really have had no clear culture or historical bias that promotes education. There were periods where this was not quite the case, e.g. sputnik scare of the late 50's, but overall we as a country talk big about schools but do little to make them effective.
05:02 PM on 09/30/2010
Video From Russia Today( From 29 september 2010) on this story:
04:58 PM on 09/30/2010
There are many streams coming together to drive up poverty and inequality. The fall in home values, the long stangnant wages, rising regressive taxes and falling progressive taxes, declining benefits, rising medical costs, rising school costs and school debts......

If we dont work through these issues we are going to stay on a path of rising inequlity and poverty.
04:13 PM on 09/30/2010
If there was a left in this country, or liberals and progressives who care about the poor, why not try organizing and educating them to form cooperatives for producing food, clothing, cleaning services, etc, and retail distribution? Even if these cooperatives don't achieve the levels of efficiency of large corporations, it would make these recipients of government spending more productive than they currently are, it would improve their health, it would form the basis of local economies, it would lower crime rates, it would give the poor the skills and opportunities to move out of poverty and ultimately have a positive social and economic return. We live in a culture where the entrepreneurs and small businesses are celebrated, so why not have an educational system that teaches people the skills to form their own businesses, hopefully cooperatives, or be self-employed? Schools used to teach carpentry, auto mechanics, etc, real skills that allow the opportunities to move out of poverty.