The US dollar has been steadily and consistently falling against other major floating currencies. The last few months have been as hard on dollars as they might have been on investor nerves. Generally, the prevailing market sentiment has been positive, if thin and prone to wild swings. American markets and pundits have remained upbeat in their self assessment. Our money and indeed world money, is increasingly being bet in the opposite direction. We get a lot of reassurance and markets have soared back up and over their pre-July highs. Attention has not been paid to the data that tell us how people are allocating their wealth between nations. This data is released monthly by the US Treasury Department and is called the Treasury International Capital System. It reveals -- with a 1-2 month lag -- the net US and foreign purchases of US and foreign securities. The data is a good way to check if the money is following the "wisdom." Lately, the money and the "wisdom" have parted course.
The newest numbers are for August 2007. The data reveal something very disturbing and important. The rest of the world sold US assets at a rapid clip across August. The rest of the world sold about $35 billion worth of long term US securities. This number includes all major categories of long term securities and all countries and areas. Across the recent past we have been seen massively and generally increasing foreign net purchases of US securities. Last year, 2006, was a record year as foreign entities purchased a $1trillion in net long-term securities. Net foreign purchasing has risen since 1993 and was rising very rapidly from 2003 until June 2007. In 2003 purchasing was just under $600 billion rising to $876 billion in 2005. This number dramatically turned negative in August.
We have been selling pieces of our firms, future tax receipts, future home mortgage payments and future business profits. Treasuries, the IOUs of the Federal Government, are regularly sold to foreign and domestic institutions and individuals. Economically it would be fair to see government offering of Treasuries as the sale of future tax receipts for cash today. Uncle Sam would gladly pay 520 Tuesdays from now for some hamburgers today! Corporations also sell bonds. They are selling their future ability to pay interest and principle for capital today. Firms issue shares of stock. When these shares pay dividends, firms are offering a fraction of future earnings for capital today. When shares don't offer dividends, they offer -- hopefully -- a chance to monetize the future growth of the firm's earnings. The sale of mortgage backed securities (MBS) represents selling the future mortgage payments of American households.
If you combine the two preceding paragraphs you come up with the following: America has been selling its future household earnings, profits and tax receipts at a rapid and accelerating clip. Starting in August, the rest of the world's appetite for our future economic health seems to have diminished. Gee whiz, what could possibly explain that? Well all those future revenues are US Dollar revenues and the US dollar has been doing rather poorly of late. This does not help. There seems to be some indication that American homeowners are and will continue to have trouble repaying some of the mortgage borrowing they have done. Thus, the currency in which foreign nationals will be paid is in decline. At the same time the certainty of repayment is in greater question than many had expected. America's future looks less bright to some foreign asset buyers. Here American investors agree with foreign investors. The Net Purchase of foreign securities by Americans has been rising very rapidly since 2004.
Who cares? Everyone who cares about the US dollar, our macroeconomy or the position of the US in the world economy should pay close attention. We are huge net borrowers from the world. Across recent years we have been borrowing between 60%-70% of globally available international funds. We run on debt and selling assets to foreign investors. If that is trending down -- let alone the negative run in August -- it is cause for real concern. One month does not a pattern make. One month worth of numbers like the one's just reported is a call to attention.
Increasingly , the answer is nothing. We even have a trade deficit in agriculture , yes agriculture.
Even if the US dollar falls , most of what we use is imported to a large extent. Clothes , appliances , technology , oil and increasingly , food.
Reaganomics has given the store away.
I do agree Anglos will lose their world currency monopoly that was established at the Bretton Woods meeting at the end of WWII. This is the 21st century. Currency should be backed by Horsepower [kilowatt hours]. A 40,000 BTU dollar would make Gasoline a stable $3.00 a gallon. Do the math.
Oh wait, our dollar bites the big one because Americans can't do the math.
Unlike commodity currencies like Gold or Silver, energy backed money can't be cornered or hoarded. Money would be backed by the ability to generate more power. If money got tight it would automatically encourage the economy to build infrastructure and acquire more energy sources.
We all know Fiat Money is crap.
Dollar can free fall very fast now.
-Our biggest single import is oil . Oil will be going up to over $100. This will further tilt the negative trade deficit.
-Iran is already using other currency for oil sales. The way we are provoking Putin with missles and radar stations , he may do the same for Russia , accept other currencies for payment . Most of his business is with the EU anyway. Chavez in Venezuela could follow suit , though Venezuela owns an oil company in the US.
If Russia ,Iran , and Venezuela , the second , fourth and fifth largest exporters no longer accept dollars , the petrodollar could break and send waves of dollars back to the United States causing a run on the dollar.
If YOU were a foreign businessman, with not only a family to feed but also a boss and/or a board-of-directors to answer to, what would YOU do with regards to The United States of America?
Would YOU elect to denominate your transaction in United States Dollars? Why or why not?
Would YOU stake your professional and family future upon this country's IOU's in said country's present political and/or economic climate? Why or why not?
The Pound , Yen , the Euro and the Dollar all have major problems. The Yen and the Euro have demoographic problems but are trade gap positive . The dollar and pound are better demographically but are trade gap negative . All the Anglo currencies are trade gap negative.