As the second of the three Presidential debates bears down on us, the race is getting even dirtier by the minute. When deciding who might be responsible for this unfortunate development in the campaign trajectory, we need only search for the campaign where desperation resides most prominently. Having enjoyed a solid lead in every major poll for at least the last 11 consecutive days, the Obama campaign has little reason to be desperate about its strategy for the final weeks of this election. Moreover, not only is Mr. Obama leading handily in the polls - and critically those in the battleground states - at this stage, but he's also finding the focus of the race on the arena he's most comfortable with - the economy.
It would be far too partisan to suggest that the Obama campaign has never exaggerated the truth on one of its plans, nor would it be fair to suggest that David Plouffe and his fellow strategists aren't smart enough to know when to play it rough. However, the truth of the matter is that in the last week, the McCain campaign has had to sit down and ask a simple and extremely pragmatic question of itself: 'What can we do to win this thing?' The answer that they found was to get increasingly desperate in their attacks on Senator Obama, his character and his past associations; "Who is Barack Obama?" The McCain campaign is once again gambling on an all or nothing strategy. A strategy that demands of the American people that they simply don't show any interest in the real, substantive issues of this race for the last remaining weeks until November 4th. Whether or not you consider that a good line of attack, it is simply the only remaining attack the McCain campaign has to consider. Several weeks ago now, John McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, clearly stated his belief that this campaign is "not about the issues" and now we see why. You don't need to be a partisan to review some simple polling: when it's come to campaigning on the issues over the last few weeks - and indeed debates - the end result has been Obama's increasingly steady rise in the polls, tied with Sarah Palin's falling favourables and McCain's erratic decision making on everything from his selection of the Governor of Alaska as his VP candidate to pulling out of a debate, only to attend a few hours later. If you're a McCain strategist, you know you can't continue to run on the issues and you know that your only shot at victory is to bring down your opponent by deceiving the electorate.
Therefore, Obama's strategy tonight is quite simple: keep it on the economy. As this race has developed over the weeks and months, the policy focus has constantly changed. Be it energy, healthcare, education or otherwise, almost every major policy issue has had its day. Ultimately though, we've always found ourselves back at the door of the economy. And it's on the economy that Obama best trumps McCain, debate after debate and poll after poll. So Obama's game plan for tonight is clear: deliver short, crisp answers on any questions of character that arise and then sharply move to remind voters that they care more about the issues in this election and less about the Roveian politics of fear that's left us in this mess after eight years of failed governance.
Obama needs to make McCain look tired, desperate and short on new ideas. He needs to portray him as out of touch and uninformed on the greatest single issue in this election. Finally he needs to bite back at any of McCain's potential questions of his character by framing them as exactly what they are - desperate attempts to move this election away from the issues and into the arenas of fear and distortion. Quite simply, Barack Obama just needs to be honest about John McCain. Yet more than that, he needs to rise above the gutter politics and keep the debate on the economy. If he manages to do that, he really can't fail to get it wrong tonight.