The North Carolina Democratic primary today is going to be a squeaker. That's how it looks on the ground, among the trees--no matter what the forest of polls sees. As Linda, a quiet-voiced woman from Randolph County confided to me last week, "everybody I know is about divided." What Hillary Clinton has going for her is that she has run the better campaign, and she herself has been the "fired up!" candidate. Barack Obama owns the demographics: his powerful coalition of students, affluent and/or educated white urbanites and African-Americans.
Senator Clinton and her husband and daughter have fought fiercely for North Carolina. Can she leave the state with an almost? If she does, she will be able to continue her argument to superdelegates about winning Middle America. Here's what she has going for her at the polls today. "The smartest thing she did was go on Bill O'Reilly," Rena said to me after the rally Saturday at Mooresville's Auto Racing Hall of Fame. I heard that observation a dozen times over the weekend. North Carolinians watch a lot of Fox News, it seems. The weekend also gave Hillary Clinton the majority of the undecided voters, simply because she and her husband were in the state asking for those votes and Barack Obama was not. Following Senator Clinton on Saturday and the ex-President on Sunday, I found a surprising number of Undecideds (25 out of a 100 people I questioned)--all of whom, after seeing a Clinton, said that watching the candidate in person made up their minds. None of these folks had had the opportunity to see Senator Obama.
Having spent more time in the state, Hillary Clinton has gone farther and deeper into North Carolina than Barack Obama has done. As Clinton surrogate Sophie B. Hawkins said at the Saturday rally in Gastonia, "we've gone from Wal-Mart to Lowe's to the fish camp with Miss Kitty." Senator Clinton has met people on riverfronts, at fire stations, before town memorials. Bill Clinton has held dozens of front porch rallies. Hillary Clinton, now that she's almost certain to lose, has found her voice and the right persona--one of spunk and joy anchored with a tough shrewdness--for what she has to offer the country. This is a different woman from the soft-focused and motherly candidate who spoke soporifically to Iowans. She speaks about her vision for America with clarity, conviction and even passion--for those who are willing, at this late date, to listen. The problem for her in North Carolina is that so many Democrats had already made up their minds about her before she even arrived.
The back-and-forth sniping between Senators Clinton and Obama over a theoretical gas tax holiday hasn't seemed to matter much. People have more important things to worry about. When I specifically asked about it, Tar Heelers shrugged and said, "nine dollars is nine dollars." What is on their minds is education. North Carolina has a better-educated populace than many other states, but Tar Heelers want more. There have been some articles in the papers here about young men and women coming home from Iraq and struggling because of their physical and mental disabilities to make it in college. North Carolinians want more help for these veterans, and they want the rest of their young people not to have to serve so many rotations in Iraq. Even in Fayetteville, Ft. Bragg and Wilmington, people talk quietly about ending the war and ending it now. Since both Clinton and Obama address the issues of education and war similarly, the gas tax holiday could be the swing issue here--except for the fact that nobody seems excited about it, one way or the other, not even in small towns, where folks often have to drive long distances to work.
North Carolina is not only educated but young. Both of these demographics help Barack Obama. College students, like their peers elsewhere in the country, have registered to vote in record numbers. The fact that African-Americans are 67,000 of the 110,000 new Democratic voters--that fact alone--likely gives Barack Obama North Carolina, no matter how hard or how well Hillary Clinton has campaigned here. Entire church congregations came out together for One-Stop Early Voting in Charlotte and Durham. Those early votes (early voting ended Saturday) are like money in the bank for Obama. At his events, not hers, many people have raised their hands as early voters.
One of the great stories of Election 2008, as I indicated in my previous piece on Lenoir, is Bill Clinton's wooing of small towns. But here's the thing about western North Carolina, where Clinton has concentrated much of his effort. Mountain folk historically and temperamentally have never felt connected to national politics. Cautious and careful, some of them will still be mulling over whether or not to vote for Bill's wife long after the polls have closed. Eastern North Carolina has not early-voted in record numbers. Despite having seen Bill Clinton and much appreciated his stopping by, some of these small-towners will not quite make it to their polling places.
Hillary Clinton needs three out of four white votes to win North Carolina. She's just not going to get that percentage. What will be interesting, however, will be the numbers for the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. With the caveat that many of these suburbanites (the majority) are Republicans, the Democrats among them--those educated and relatively affluent professionals--are supposed to be an Obama crowd. If Obama's percentages of these voters are not as high as anticipated, the Reverend Wright controversy will have had an effect.
Five points. It seems to me that's the number for Hillary Clinton. She has to win Indiana by more than five and lose North Carolina by less than five. If she can't get that number, the Superdelegate shuffle to Obama is going to pick up. And hey, guys and gals, could you make it a little faster? Could you pluck the courage to step out? Because all this Clinton/Obama trail talk about bringing the party together in the fall is whistling past the graveyard. Through Texas, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the chorus of partisan discontent has grown louder. Now more and more people tell me either (1) if Clinton wins, they'll sit out; or (2) if Obama wins, they'll vote for McCain. The Democratic Party is going to need more than a few months to heal the wounds this mother of all nomination battles has inflicted. Meanwhile the battle has raised the ante on campaign promises. Both Clinton and Obama are making promises they are going to have to break. Meanwhile both candidates have grown increasingly militaristic, and in the heat of this nomination, the press and the public have been distracted from this worrisome development. Clinton talks nuclear to Iran and lowers her voice when warning the campaign trail about China's building a deep-water fleet. Obama has laid down markers on Afghanistan and the wilds of Pakistan: we must "win Afghanistan at all costs" and catch Osama.
Suddenly, a little tussle over North Carolina looks better and better. One thing though: in the fall Barack Obama needs to get down to the fish camp with Miss Kitty.
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As Emily Latella used to say:
"Never mind".
Hey! Can we change the tone here? We don't need to gloat, we don't need to slam Ms. Fowler. And we don't need to slam those who support Clinton. Many people see her as a great candidate for valid reasons. We don't need to be hateful. Just how do you think this will motivate them to support Obama?
If we ourselves - referring to the bloggers and Obama supporters here - are incapable of changing the tone of our own discourse, if we are just as ugly in our approach to those whose viewpoints differ from our own, then we are no different from them and NOTHING will change.
Grow up folks, and don't stoop to Republican-style hate-mongering!
Obama '08!
You are so right. I have been trying to make a conscious effort to be gracious and supportive to my fellow democrats, regardless of who they supported. We all need to look at this primary not as a divider, but intensive training for the General Election
Hey! The healing process has begun. The comments directed at Ms. Fowler were and are justified, no need to revisit the trail of her treacherous intentions as to why.
A scolding from another supporter telling us to "grow up" is a slam in itself. Back off! Each of us needs to heal in our own way as we move forward. I understand the need for unity and I'm onboard. Let it rest for a few days. Hillary has not conceded yet. Therefore, her dirty tricks are still in play. We have to keep a vigilant watch on Clinton's actions until Barack secures the nomination for obvious reasons.
No worries we know what we need to do moving forward!
President Barack Obama 08
Hello Olivia,
I'm glad the healing process has begun for you. Best wishes for your improved health.
Well said. Send my regards to Carroll Gardens and Clinton Hill.
Poor Mayhill.
In spite of your best effort, Obama appears to be the presumptive Democratic nominee, and you will be remembered in Democatic circles as a malicious, self-serving partisan hack who tried and failed ot hobble Barack Obama. In exchange for your brief moment in the spotlight, you have damaged the Democrats' chances of winning in November against an incompetent Republican who wants to keep the catastrophic Iraq war going for another 100 years.
Thanks for nothing. Now please go away.
LOL. Looks like Mayhill doesn't know the South as well as she thinks she does. Sigh. Well, I'm ok with that.
Hehe! Now what was that you were saying about NC, Ms. Fowler?
Maybe this decisive win in N.C wil put both Mayhil and Hillary in the doghouse. I expect both to keep on acting like they know what they are talking about, but the people have spoken. Hope can rise out of dark corners and the American people are smarter than your divisive politics.
Close? Close to defeat, absolutely.
Wow, were you wrong about that'un, Miss Mayhill. As a color commentator you're pretty good. As an analyst you stink. As a journalist? Well let's just say that Lenoir, NC is in CALDWELL COUNTY, not "Campbell" and leave it at that.
The beauty of Garrison Keillor is that he is pithy about plain folks. You just drone on. Try setting yourself a 500-word limit and see how you do.
JP
The one thing that I hope that the Clinton campaign(not their supporters) and the MSM learn is that the American people are sick of your 'BS' and we don't need any talking heads telling us how, and what to think!
We've got the internet - as far as I'm concerned - your spinning days are OVER!
So take your broke campaign and your mudslinging lying candidate along with your MSM and get LOST. Preferably in a other country.
You have touched on a major point that will not be discussed by the MSM, and that is their relativity. There are now too many sources for information that people can go to instead of cable and the networks. The information age is changing things considerably more than many people imagined. This, coupled with a more open minded generation that are not willing to be pigeon-toed into a category, goes directly against the play book of managing public opinion that the MSM has so much control over. Possible future headline: The Death of the Cable and News Networks: When America Stopped Listening.
nobuks --
Love your last line . . . can't wait for that day to come!
Mayhill Foul-er,
Some squeaker, huh?!
Looks like Indiana is the SQUEAKER!
Hope you enjoyed your 15 minutes of EVIL fame. Now go home and write a cookbook......YOUR chickens have come home to roost!
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA NOVEMBER 08
HALLELUJAH!
You were wrong on North Carolina by a long shot. Wow; can't believe how wrong you were. You and Hillary are two peas in a pod--both living in fantasy land! After this blow out, bitter much?
Mayhill, Do yourself and US a favor - unplug your computer, unplug your biased,fact twisting brain, and take a long vacation (somewhere far away!). I didn't read more than the first line of your post and it was, as always, exaggerated, inaccurate, and biased. You are no journalist!!
Blatant race baiting, Ms. Fowler?
"Hillary Clinton needs three out of four white votes to win North Carolina."
The fact is a candidate's win should not be based exclusively on _one_ race. Note you state that Obama attracts whites and blacks, although you make the snide inference that it's "elitist" whites he attracts given that they're "affluent and/or educated white urbanites".
It is exactly talk like yours and the Clinton campaign that is dividing America with "slice and dice" politics. I urge you to stop this sort of talk as it's in fact this very mentality that has destroyed Hillary Clinton's campaign. Had she not abandoned campaigning in South Carolina's predominately black communities, she could very well be in a different place right now. Afr-Ams knew EXACTLY what she was doing when she stopped campaigning for their vote and THAT'S the reason they swung to Obama - how do you expect to gain someone's vote if you don't work hard for it? Either she was arrogant that she would get their vote or she wanted Obama to get an overwhelming win with the black vote so she could paint his win as "due to black voters". Either way, her approach was as despicable as your suggestion about Hilalry having to win 75% of white voters.
Ms. Fowler, if you look back, you will find that there was a time when I really enjoyed your detailed, objective reporting and gave you a lot of compliments. After the whole elitist furor, much like Barack Obama did with Rev. Wright, I gave you the benefit of the doubt, thinking you were giving honest criticism without intent to do harm and it was a simple "boneheaded" move to report comments made at a closed fundraiser. But then you return to Huffington Post with full-blown Hillary Clinton praise / Barack Obama bashing articles and like Obama, I'm sadly forced to reject your extremely biased and dishonest reporting.
As to this article you just posted, what a waste! No, it wasn't a squeaker in NC. Obama clearly won NC 56% to 42% (97% reporting), a REAL double digit WIN unlike Hillary Clinton in PA.
Honesty and being objective counts for something. You did well when you did that earlier. I realize that you might have taken a lot of heat from the Obama "bitter" debacle but you're better to maintain integrity and regain credibility than to simply embrace the dark side. Yes, it's harder, but in the long run, you come out looking like a champ. Right now, you look like a very untrustworthy journalist.
Mayhill, you fowled up another one. Congratulations, your work here is done. Now get out of our state and move on to West Virginia.
TrueBlue in NC.
Whew!
Reading the comments, I realize they've said it all.
Too bad such a great idea like Off The Bus (conceptually... as a Kesey fan, I would have preffered On... oh well) is tarnished.
The perils of anecdotal "evidence" and opposition research I suppose.
We do owe you thanks though Mayhill.
At least the class-warfare debate is well underway and Democrats have become informed about our likely nominee's real position.
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Posted May 6, 2008 | 12:27 PM (EST)