McCain's Road To Victory

The Democratic Party celebration at INVESCO field was only a week ago tonight, but it seems like a season past. It was supposed to be a hard act for the Republicans to follow. Barack Obama was supposed to get a Mile-High bounce from Denver. Bush and Cheney were going to be the awkward relatives at the family party in St. Paul. McCain was between a rock and a hard place in choosing a running mate. The Obama Campaign was capturing the voters' attention with mockery, suggesting that McCain is out of touch with average Americans because he doesn't know how many houses he owns. By contrast, the McCain Campaign had been unable to ignite any excitement among Republicans both in the base and at large. What a difference a week makes.

Leaving St. Paul, the Republicans see two different roads ahead. First, there is the sober view suggested however inferentially by experienced conservative strategists. In the panel discussion on "Conservatism Today" Monday at the Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Vin Weber, Mickey Edwards and David Frumm seemed to be in agreement that John McCain would lose the presidential race in November; their disagreement was over the geography of loss. Mickey Edwards predicted that Election 2008 would be like 1980, when Americans didn't settle on Reagan over Carter until late in the fall, and then Reagan swept forty-four states. Without coming right out and saying so, Edwards was equating Obama with Reagan. McCain had to take a gamble on Sarah Palin, Edwards posited, because his internal polling has been showing that the race is not as close as the public polls indicate.

David Frumm agreed with Mickey Edwards. "It does look like 1980." Ronald Reagan didn't poll as well as he ran. The inference here was that Obama would repeat that pattern. As I recall, neither man mentioned Obama by name. Vin Weber disagreed on the margins. "He's [Obama] probably going to eke out a 2-3% victory" -- unless something comes up again about the Reverend Wright, then "his [McCain's] chances go way up." There was some doubt among the other panelists whether John McCain would capitalize on anything Wright-related. Vin Weber pushed back. It's all about victory. "People play for keeps."

A few minutes earlier, Mickey Edwards had said, "I think that John McCain can't win this election unless he makes it very clear he's not George Bush." In Sarah Palin, John McCain seems to have found a way, at least for now, to shift the attention of the voters he so crucially needs away from any Bush-McCain connection. Sarah Palin has captured more -- the moment and the national imagination -- much more than John McCain could ever have imagined.

At the Thursday morning Yahoo!/Politico/PioneerPress breakfast, the conversation was supposed to be "Can the GOP Compete in an Era of Rising Diversity," but the talk kept coming back to Sarah Palin. Political commentator Armstrong Williams of XM Radio was particularly ebullient. "I would never have thought a month ago that Obama could lose this election," he said. "It's a new game!" For Williams, Sarah Palin is "the cat's meow." People want to know more now -- not about Barack Obama but about Sarah Palin. "She is the female Bill Clinton when it comes to oratory!"

The other panelists weren't as gaga, but they, too, couldn't keep off Palin. And then there was Karl Rove. Like Edwards, Frumm and Weber, Rove was the voice of cool reason. "When it comes to economic issues, does he [McCain] get it? Does he know what he's going to do?" From his tone, Rove made it clear that McCain has yet to prove himself on the economy. Rove also tried to put a damper on Palin-o-mania. "This election, let's be honest, is going to be about McCain and Obama." And as for Sarah Palin herself, Rove said, "Being the newest player on the stage, she will be the most tested." What happens, he suggested, looking ahead, when she has to deliver an unscripted speech, take questions in a town hall meeting and appear on the Sunday morning talk shows? And if there's an October Surprise, Rove said, it will be in the debates. It will all come down to the debates.

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The other road out of St. Paul is the one paved by giddy enthusiasm for Palin and lighted by the indignation of Republican women in the face of perceived attacks against her. In the long restroom line at the Minneapolis Hilton after Thursday's lunch in honor of Cindy McCain, the talk was all Palin. "It makes me so mad! To suggest that because she's a mother of five she can't be a vice president, too!" This outrage, if manufactured in the beginning, has nevertheless now become real. Exclamation was the queue refrain -- but often accompanied by the sort of practical considerations that women are heir to. "I want to know how she managed to pack so fast," one woman asked, "and not just for herself but all those children -- and you know what you get if you leave them to do it!"

At the luncheon, Todd Palin, introducing Cindy McCain to the mostly female audience, showed that he, too, is a fast learner. Mr. Palin is one of those big guys with a high voice. Despite that slight impediment and his need to consult his notes now and again, he adopted just the right tone. "Is it just me, or do things move quick around here," he said. "I might have asked a few more questions when Sarah decided to join the PTA!" It seemed to be a genuine moment -- showing on his face -- when Todd Palin said, "I've been working the night shift on the north slope. If somebody had told me ten days ago -- " From the night shift to a ladies' luncheon with a potential First Lady -- it's like the plot of a Preston Sturges movie. As in a Sturges classic, darker themes lie underneath the excitement, the drama, the rollicking push forward these next two months.

The darkest theme is the animosity between two Americas who in fundamental ways do not understand one another. Both Barack Obama and John McCain talk about bringing this country together, but the debut of Sarah Palin on the national scene highlights the enormous difficulty either man as president will have making good on this promise. At the Cindy McCain luncheon, for example, two reporters on the press riser made fun of Sarah Palin's accent, and in the presence of the boy reporting on the event for Scholastic News. Not twenty minutes later, Elizabeth Hasselbeck, as moderator for the luncheon program, praised Cindy McCain's stint on The View by taking a backhand and largely gratuitous swipe at Michelle Obama and her guest appearance on the show. "She [Cindy] didn't come with a list of topics we weren't allowed to touch." As Vin Weber said earlier in the week, it's all about winning, and people do play for keeps. But in the past winners and losers have been able to come together, one way or another, around common values. On Wednesday night in the press filing room at the convention a group of journalists, eight or ten young men, ridiculed the men and women, their faces televised one after another in close-up, raised to the flag and singing the national anthem next door in the Xcel Center. When we no longer look at patriotism in the same way, what exactly is it that we share?

Over the next weeks, at least as far as the Vice-Presidential debate and perhaps longer, Sarah Palin will stand at the center of this divide. Love her or hate her, so many Americans will be focused upon her. The media and the campaigns have a very short time in which to find out who Sarah Palin really is. The salient question, in terms of the election dynamic, is not about this or that policy decision -- whether Governor Palin did or did not do this or that about the bridge/road to nowhere/somewhere. The important question is whether, in terms of small-town values, she is the real thing or a fraud. And a possible endgame in this election is that liberal media, particularly in the blogosphere and on cable news, will through their ridicule and cultural misunderstanding so incense small-town America that they drive those voters into the McCain-Palin camp, just as surely as Bill Clinton drove African-American South Carolinians to Obama. Even Karl Rove left open the possibility for the exceptionalism of Election 2008. "In a normal election," Rove said, "the effect of the vice presidential candidate is minimal."

That McCain's acceptance speech Thursday night is merely an endnote both to the convention and to this piece and says much about the Republican dynamic right now. Anybody who didn't already know that John McCain cannot speechify knows it now. In print, his speech has some lovely moments, particularly when he confesses, "I fell in love with my country when I was a prisoner in someone else's." In re-telling his captivity narrative, McCain provides a moment or two of the soul-baring that many people have been asking him to deliver. The Obama Campaign has always saluted the power of the personal narrative and has encouraged volunteers to wield the persuasive power inherent in their own stories. Finally, McCain is doing the same. The problem is that he didn't do it first. Indeed many of the elements of his speech -- the call for change, the belief that we can work together to solve the country's problems, the roll-out of specific policy prescriptions, like raising the child tax exemption and providing more school choices -- Barack Obama has already trademarked. In the end, McCain's speech to the convention was rather boring -- and not just because of delivery and lack of the new.

One of the great ironies of Election 2008 is that John McCain, even as he is accused of being a warmonger, is really not as tough and aggressive as Barack Obama. Perhaps McCain has seen too much of man's inhumanity to man. It's as if something has been burned out of him, and therefore what's left -- a sweetness, an empathy, so at odds with the rest of his personality -- makes him seem inauthentic. Likely many Americans watching McCain on television Thursday night didn't believe McCain meant the things he said. Having seen him on the campaign trail, I think his intentions are genuine. But is empathy (as opposed to understanding) what Americans really want in 2008? I don't think so -- and that's why, in my opinion, all Barack Obama's many "I feel your pain" roundtables and town hall meetings are not delivering big poll numbers for him. Americans want a shake-up in politics and in the landscape -- and that takes tough. But Americans can be cautious, particularly when it comes to presidential elections. Can we trust him to shake it up right? That's going to be the final consideration this year. Sarah Palin, moreover, is going to factor into that determination -- however she plays.

Comments

[saraholeary]

Thanks for bringing attention to the ultimate bait and switch. Thankfully (or maybe hopefully), I think the media is starting to realize that they are being pawned. McCain's camp knows he can't win on his Bushwacked record, so they throw Palin, the gal who avoids critical analysis by dodging interviews, into their well packaged spotlight.

Is this a Presidential campaign or a magic act? I for one believe that our country deserves much more than this.

[Wiam]

For people who know Hillary supporters who are still holding out, read this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/newt-chapin/how-to-appease-hillary-su_b_127144.html

Can the Democratic Party finally unite? The road to victory!

[lvdragonlady]

Let's see.
Bush or Palin
Palin or Bush

We know how Bush is but we only see what the GOP wants us to see about Palin. So, all things being equal, thinking Bush is a more realistic thing to do.

[mjc]

Reading through the posts on this particular blog, I'm struck by the lack of understanding of some here who don't understand why McCain/Palin is getting good press, a sympathetic press, actually an awestruck press. The few meetings that McCain had with Palin must have been zingers but don't doubt that McCain saw the benefits of her on his ticket. She does give a great speech. She is attractive. She is in close sync with McCain; very much a conservative. I do remember during the primary that Obama got a good press, an understanding press, a sympathetic press. He does give a good speech and his talk of change was accepted as an authentic pictures of what HE would do in Washington. But the solutions, the plans, were few and far between. He picked a vice president who is in some ways Mr. Democrat with perhaps a far more compelling story than McCain's or even Obama. The big difference between Biden and Palin is of course Joe's experience in the Senate, his gravitas and the fact that he is a two time runner for president. His speeches are full of what Obama's never had: facts, solutions, plans, discussion of the issues AND he doesn't come across as the personality guy in this race. So the Obamacons are going to have to suck it up and realize that this is a close race, their guy isn't just going to walk into the White House, and Sarah Palin is working.

[spyda]

DAMN I HOPE PEOPLE WAKE UP IN TIME!!!!!!!!!! OBAMA/BIDEN'08

[confusedintexas]

I am in total astonishment of the media's positive coverage of Palin/McCain ticket. Did I miss something but are they not suppose to remain unbias? I have viewed C-Span, C-Span2, MSNBC, FOX, CNN, ABC, CBS, PBS & NBC and they have all with the exception of Keith O. are now using the Palin/McCain talking points. I thought that I would be able to watch the political campaign progression until Nov., however, I don't think that I can stomach this nonsense. For the good of the American people are we not suppose to know all of the pertinent information concerning the views and political posturing of those that we are suppose to elect to the highest government office in the U.S. Wasn't it the same Media bias that didn't pursue the right information or as a matter of fact any information that got us in a war with the wrong people, we didn't go after the people who terrorized our land. It's time for the American people to be very afraid and not in the since that the Republican party wants us to be. I don't fear Obama/Biden ... I fear Appalling/McSame.

[Jey]

Stop the fear mongering Mayhill - Obama wins in November! Your title should've been Obama's Road to Victory because that is what it is and no matter how many journalist or bloggers try to take the Campaign for Change down it will not work. Not this time. No Way, No How, No McCain, No Palin!

Obama/Biden 08

[one4REALchange]

Want to hear McCain actually singing praises of Sarah Palin?

"this didn't go the way I planned"

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/d4a88e181d

[moreSENSE]

Here is the launchpad for McCain's plans of conomic reform:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqsH7dkFGTo

[Gotcha54]

After watching the 60 minutes program today - we should just get out of Iraq as fast as humanly possible. The way Bush prosecuted this war was jaw-dropping! Anyone who would vote for McSame knowing about this war - and McSames favorite topic - the "surge" - is a looney!

[TruthSpeaker]

I'm struck by the similarities between George W. Bush and John S. McCain that nobody in the media seems to have clued in to: The fact that they are both cast from the same mold. Spoiled rich kids who horribly underperformed in college. Neither took their own education seriously. They were both drunks; party animals in the finest Animal House tradition. That tells us all we need to know about their judgement then and their judgement now. McCain is a well known gambling addict to boot. McCain would indeed be more of the same and quite possibly worse.

[lizinatl]

We need to get real serious now and look at ALL that's happening!!!!

The government (through Fannie and Freddie) now owns most of our homes!!!

Le'ts stop this 'fiddling' while Rome burns... this is NOT A JOKE!! no matter how much McCain't grins...we are being tooooo petty during some serious times....McCain't nor Pain have vision enough to attack all that ails our -repeat OUR - country...their home, our country?

[ZeroBama]

If you don't want someone other than youself owning your home then you might try making the payments! No money? Get a better job. Don't have the skills or ideas to make more in the market place? Don't buy a home you can't afford. By the way, USA/Gallup poll has McCain up by 10 points this morning (real clear politics)

[WFV]

Zero: The bailout was not all about bad loans, but no one knows the figures yet. You should be so proud of your politicians and their involvement in the lending industry.

[scrzbill]

Oh yeah you are such a genius at solving someone else's problems. Why don't you tell your solutions to my neighbor who has a good job and was able to make his payment, support his wife and her children, buy food insurance and donate a little, when his company cut his and everyones pay %30. His choice to get a better job? Where are the jobs in the neo con economy? Low paying non union part time jobs with no benefits. Your type of moronic thinking is very christian and It is very typical of todays neo con christofascist to look down on others and to take as much as possible for themselves. Real clear politics? What a joke. You mean a real clear smear campaign. The campaign manager for mcbush said this was about personalities not issues. When mcbush was involved in being a board member of a bank, what happened to that bank and how much did it cost the taxpayers? The guy is physically and mentally brain damaged from the enhanced interrogation techniques he had to suffer through. (They used to call it torture until his mentor started using it)

[LongBeachDave]

This "finale" at the Republican Convention missed by the networks:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg

[etrav001]

I don't understand how the Special Investigations show can do a fact check on Sarah Palin and not reveal that she lied about selling the governor's jet on e-bay and making a profit, that she initially lied about the investigation involving her brother-in-law, lied about beginning pipeline in Alaska that is not scheduled to begin until 2018 if then. And, her repeated claims of bringing lobbyist reform to Washington when she herself actually took money from the bridge to nowhere project while in favor and then against yet still taking the money. The McCain/Plain campaign has over a hundred lobbyist in their campaign. The lobbyist I find most egregious is their economic adviser Ex-Senator Graham who headed the committee that deregulated the mortgage industry then became a lobbyist for them. His deregulation legislation ties into the situation with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that is having a devastating affect on our economy. This is the man that called Americans whiners. When Obama expressed that Americans turn to their guns, etc., while trying to talk about how the government has failed them it was lambasted over the news and internet. It would be a travesty for the American people to once again be divided by divisive politics while offering no real change to the current policies. The war in Iraq, it was based on a lie and nothing changes the fact that people lives have ended or forever changed as a result of this war.

[STACYDELAWARE]

McCain is the one shifting and saying things to fit whatever he thinks people want to hear. How dare you for calling your campaign one of "change!" You will stoop to any lengths to become president. McCain, you will not become President of the United States of America. However, Obama is our next President and leader of Us The People Of The United States of America. McCain, you have made a mockery of this season of campaigning. You have lied constantly. You are no maverick! You are a pretender. Why don"t the news media talk to some of those you served with. Let the "true" truth come out! You are truly out of touch with each and every American and the needs of the People, and the world will not trust you either. You want war! We want PEACE! Obama will offer PEACE if at all possible. Where are you coming from man? Step aside with your chosen friend, for she is not worthy to serve as VP or President. She is not Hillary and she will never be!