Obama Hot On Hillary's Heels In California

At Thursday's town hall meeting in Los Angeles, Mitchell Schwartz, the head of Obama's California Campaign, was jubilant. "The latest Rasmussen Poll shows us within 2-3 points," he said. "Then that's a win," I replied. "No, no," Schwartz countered, "I want us to win!" He spoke like a man who thought he could. Irrespective of our disagreement about what constitutes a victory for Obama in California, one thing is already clear: California will not be the firewall on which Hillary Clinton has always counted. Whoever leaves the state on Tuesday with the most delegates, it will be a very close outcome. Since Obama is the encroacher, he has the momentum. Just in the last twelve hours, the Los Angeles Times has endorsed Obama (for a total of 33 in-state paper endorsements), the campaign has announced a Sunday morning rally in Los Angeles with Oprah, Caroline and Michelle--need last names?--and Ted Kennedy has begun a series of electrifying rallies in the state. In the end, it will all come down to getting out the vote, and which demographics throng the polls, in what surely will be unprecedented primary numbers for California.

Obama's town hall meeting in Los Angeles is instructive. Media such as The Washington Post and Time have reported it as a lead-in to a piece on the California Latino vote and how Obama is coming late to wooing a demographic that, as the tallies in Nevada reveal, views Hillary Clinton most favorably. However, the town hall meeting (billed as such because Obama took questions from the audience rather than delivering a full stump speech) was not a Latino event per se. Since the Los Angeles Trade-Technical College hosted Obama, some Trade-Tech students, many of whom are Latino, were seated. But the real purpose of the event was two-fold: to gather together and to honor the many community leaders, about half of them African-American, who have endorsed Obama in Los Angeles and thereby to create a video opportunity for television and some free media coverage. Therefore, it was an intimate crowd (by Obama standards) gathered on lawn chairs in the school courtyard among the loquat and olive trees. There were almost as many press as guests. A local journalist for a Japanese language LA paper pointed out the various crews not only for Japanese television but also for Taiwanese, Korean, Vietnamese and Malaysian. Telemundo and Univision were there, of course, as well as several smaller Spanish-language outlets. As usual, the Obama Campaign is one step ahead of press consciousness--here in recognizing that Los Angeles is a hugely multi-cultural multi-lingual citizenry that Obama has only a small amount of time to reach. At this late hour, television/radio is the best way.

If the wealth of increasingly visible California Latino endorsements (18 CA politicians on the new Latino Steering Committee alone) makes even a small difference, then Obama is nibbling at that vote. Even though the conventional wisdom is that Clinton has that vote locked up, what happens Tuesday will depend on how many young Latinos, new to voting, turn out. There seems to be some anecdotal evidence that many, like their peers across the party, are for Obama. But then there is anecdotal evidence for everything. After the Trade-Technical College event, The Washington Post and Time talked to young Latinos who said they still support Clinton. On the other hand, when I was riding the LA light rail back to LAX, I eavesdropped on a half-dozen Trade-Tech students, male Latinos, talking about Obama. They were evenly divided: half for Obama, half for McCain. "McCain, man!" one guy shouted, pumping his fist in salute.

Only a few days from the primary, the Obama Campaign is doing everything it can to woo the California Latino voter, from a wealth of Spanish-language television ads to a new volunteer center in East LA. There are Spanish phone banks and targeted canvasses all weekend. In typical Obama Campaign high-tech style, there is a "virtual phone bank" on the campaign website, where volunteers from across the country can find names and numbers of Los Angelinos to call and persuade. Temo Figueroa, the national campaign's Hispanic outreach field officer, said in a conference call with reporters yesterday that thousands of such calls have been made. Barack himself, at the Trade-Tech School meeting, acknowledged that he needs to learn Spanish. As Maria Elena Durazo [head of the LA County Federation of Labor] said in that same conference call, "the Latino community just needs to know more about him [Barack]."

Obama's supporters in the Latino community here readily admit that there isn't enough time before the primary for the majority of Latinos to learn, for example, that Obama took up the issue of the death penalty in Illinois. But in a curious way, these state legislators and local activists have a sunny confidence, in advance of any kind of assured feeling elsewhere, that down the road Latinos, once they know his record on after-school programs and mandatory language assistance in hospitals back in Illinois, his support of the Dream Act and the Real ID Act, will have an opportunity to embrace Barack Obama. "Our data here in California shows a steady increase among Latino support in every age group," Figueroa says. Maybe this means only that Obama will do better with Latinos in California than he did in Nevada. Or maybe Latinos on the ground in Southern California have earned this optimism.

Where it is clear that Obama will pick up votes is from the substantial number of John Edwards supporters in Northern California; at the grassroots level the two groups have been on friendly terms, even attending the other team's events. In Northern California, these supporters have been educated middle class mid-level professionals like teachers and nurses. On the progressive scale, the Edwards folk here have been the most liberal among Clinton, Edwards and Obama; therefore, the candidate perceived to be the next-most-liberal, Barack Obama, is a better fit for these voters than Hillary Clinton, farthest to the right. Moving the Edwards supporter into the fold will help to balance the Clinton-leaning Latino voter.

Comments

[jonnie66]

OBAMA LOOSES JOBS FOR LATINIOS!
Ms. Obama, VP Chicago Hosp, that charges minorities 6 times as much, isn"t cold hearted enough, she also caused hundreds to loose their 11.hr jobs, to be more efficient she said! In 05, elected to the BOD Westchester-based TreeHouse Foods, she received $12,000 and $33,000 from a subsidiaries, in Nov announced closing its La Junta, plant, that claimed the jobs of 153 workers, most of them Hispanic! Huge blow to a rural town jobs paid a starting wage of $11hr, Company pays top execs like MICHELLE OBAMA tens of millions a year while destroying middle-class America. Raises the question not only about corporate values but about Barrack Obama's own values. Specifically, while he bashes Wal-Mart, why does his wife, make $45,000 and up a year serving on the board of Chicago comp that pays her a very hefty amount of money while laying off mostly minority workers in economically deprived areas? No. 1 customer is Wal-Mart???

[illinoisan]

Latest Zogby/Reuters/C-Span poll shows Obama now leading in California with 45% to Clinton's 41%. By itself, the California race is too close to call but the trend is clear. Obama has been closing the gap the last several weeks and now effectively has closed it.

[illinoisan]

From the Sac Bee's Dan Abrams on C-Span this morning: Hillary puts California into play for McCain in the general election because she does so poorly among independents and McCain does so well.

Now, can the Dems win in November without California? California is supposed to be a safely blue state. Putting California into play for the GOP is a death wish for Dems.

[jonnie66]

From NBC's Chuck Todd
CNN did dial testing and reported that a slighty majority of their group gave the debate to Clinton .
Once again Clinton shined in the last debate! Was extremely Presidential! And easily stated facts, solutions and direction. Once again Obama fumbles and stumbles though trying to make points or somewhat answer the question, but not really. He doesn"t appear to be able to keep his train of thought, never seemed to be on the topic at hand. When they are next to one another she stands out, hands down. I think its O-bombs for obama¦Sorry Teddy!
Obama criticized again for going negative and misleading on Clinton
Does Sen. Obama think that using divisive GOP tactics is the way to bring the country together?

[jonnie66]

OBAMA LOOSES JOBS FOR LATINIOS!
Ms. Obama, VP Chicago Hosp, that charges minorities 6 times as much, isn"t cold hearted enough, she also caused hundreds to loose their 11.hr jobs, to be more efficient she said! In 05, elected to the BOD Westchester-based TreeHouse Foods, she received $12,000 and $33,000 from a subsidiaries, in Nov announced closing its La Junta, plant, that claimed the jobs of 153 workers, most of them Hispanic! Huge blow to a rural town jobs paid a starting wage of $11hr, Company pays top execs like MICHELLE OBAMA tens of millions a year while destroying middle-class America. Raises the question not only about corporate values but about Barrack Obama's own values. Specifically, while he bashes Wal-Mart, why does his wife, make $45,000 and up a year serving on the board of Chicago comp that pays her a very hefty amount of money while laying off mostly minority workers in economically deprived areas? No. 1 customer is Wal-Mart???

[lpeacock]

Many Edwards supporters will vote for Edwards. He can still win delegates. Our voices will be heard at the convention.

[Traveller]

It is totally unbelievable how the media and public are once again going about choosing a leader based on charisma, rhetoric, looks and lack of actionable experience and public service. The empty promises of candidates have been exposed in every election all over the world. But the public STILL goes for it every time. Good orators do not necessarily translate to good leaders. I have to yet see anything that Obama has DONE to start believing him. He needs to actually do something worthwhile for the people of America.

I think all candidates should be held up to the highest scrutiny and not be given free passes as Bush has been given for the past 7 years.

T

[gallo146]

SI SE PUEDE, ESE BATO!! ARRIBA OBAMA!!

[Kane]

The positive energy is amazing! There's something magical in the air, and you feel it and taste it and dream it. Everywhere I go, the Obama movement continues to grow. People are energized, as if they know something very special is about to happen.

[Lazslo]

I saw the rally Hillary Clinton had in California today on C-SPAN. Can someone explain why people are hooting and hollering. Why are people at those events cheering so much?

[superba]

This post does not mention the fact that La Opinion, arguably the most powerful Spanish-language paper in Los Angeles, just endorsed Obama:

http://www.mediainfo.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003705966

[starrianna]

Another Obama adviser, Sarah Sewall, who heads a human rights center at Harvard and is a former Defense official, she wrote the introduction to General Petraeus"s Marine Corps/Army counterinsurgency handbook, the handbook that is now being used worldwide by US troops in various killing operations. That"s the Obama team.

[longislandlol]

The Latinos will continue to thrive all over our great land-- not just lip service-- they will be part of becoming what this nation is all about-- the rewards of Obama's ascension will be great for Latinos world-wide...

[KyleCope]

The Best Hillary spoof ever!
Check out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGMgxFE6bms

Or search HILLARY TERMINATOR on You Tube!

[Gdebs]

All of this is fine but the big question is to whom will Giuliani throw his delegate. The world waits.