Palin Puts McCain One-Up In Ohio

"There was nobody I wanted to vote for -- but now I'm so ecstatic," crowed Vickie, a forty-five year-old who works at the Southwest Ohio Development Center. Vickie's enthusiasm for Sarah Palin, the presumptive Republican vice-presidential nominee, is the predominant mood among the women at the Dayton rally where Friday John McCain introduced his choice for second-place on the ticket to an overflow crowd of Republican Ohioans. Having spent some time earlier in the summer following the Ohio campaigns, from Zanesville to Portsmouth, I just didn't see how John McCain could win this supposed battleground state -- not with the formidable number of voters that the Obama Campaign is going to rack up in the big cities, not with Appalachian Ohio lukewarm and lassitudinous about John McCain. Without Appalachian Ohio turning out in force to vote, John McCain can not win this state, and without this state, he cannot win the White House. Unless intense media scrutiny and the St. Louis debate destroy her credibility -- and it's going to take a lot more than bridges, polar bears and an abusive brother-in-law to have any sway in the Buckeye State -- Sarah Palin has suddenly put Ohio seriously into play for John McCain.

The Obama Campaign has sent out an email to the press that quotes the analysis from Editor & Publisher on the latest Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. "First Two National Polls Find Palin Gains LESS Support from Women," the E&P staff writes on August 30. Likely many pro-Obama blogs and articles will link to this interpretation and build upon it. However, a careful analysis of the Gallup and Rasmussen polls themselves and their methodologies do not support such a sweeping conclusion. Rasmussen finds that Sarah Palin is unknown to 78% of women. Therefore, conclusions about her come from a very small segment of the population.

Furthermore, her approval rating from all voters on the day she was introduced as running mate was 53%, while Joe Biden's on his day was 43%. The important numbers on Palin do not come from the nationwide polls. Nor do the polls matter that include Democrats, most of whom could never warm to such a conservative, pro-life candidate. The significant numbers are Palin's favorability ratings among Republicans (78%) and Independents (63%). For John McCain to win the presidency, Republicans have to come out in force to vote just as Democrats surely will. And McCain must garner a significant portion of both Independents and undecideds. If Sarah Palin survives the media and a one-on-one with Joe Biden, she could be the exception that proves the rule of vice-presidential inconsequence.

The women of the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have never seen Sarah Palin in person. The Republican women of Ohio who watched her Dayton debut, however, were just as fired up as the Greenwood women were for Obama last year. Like Vickie, Jenny had not been sure she would in the end vote for John McCain. "Now I'm enthusiastic," she said. "She [Palin] has a better feel for our energy problems than other politicians. Plus she's an example for our daughters and an inspiration for us women at home with little kids." Like Sarah Palin, Jenny has five children. She added, "She [Palin] shows that you can start small. And that it's never too late." Later I spoke with Eileen, who has three children and who has recently retired. "I'm going home and calling my mother -- I'm so excited," Eileen said. "It would've been same-old, same-old with the other choices. They wouldn't have mixed it up, and change is what's needed."

Christie, at age twenty-four the youngest McCain supporter with whom I spoke (although there were a surprising number of college students at the Dayton rally), described herself as a "right in the middle of the road" voter. Like other 20-year olds of the more conservative women, Christie described Sarah Palin as "a very wise choice." She went on to speculate that Palin "might pull in a few Hillary Clinton voters." (There is no evidence of that so far.) Susan, another mother of three, speaking with me while trying to restrain her two youngest from fighting over the red, white and blue light sticks handed out for the rally, echoed the other women. "I think it's fantastic! She [Palin] is street ready. She's gonna do so many things for women," Susan said, in reference to Palin's remark about fighting Alaska's "good old boy network." Julie, age 57, who used to trade stocks and now blogs, thought that "it was a very smart move on the part of the [McCain] campaign because Sarah Palin hits all the right demographics. And she's like one of us. Also, she knows what working people go through." Not that there seemed to be that many working class people at the Dayton rally. (In fact, email invitations to apply for tickets had gone out to a selected group of Ohio Republicans; there had been more replies than tickets, and the event spilled over into standing room only.) Julie pointed to the women and children waiting for the parking lot shuttle buses. "There are a lot of home-schoolers around here," she said. "That's why you're seeing so many kids here on a school day." Julie observed that Palin had hit just the right note with these women by honoring her husband in speaking first of him, "still the man that I admire most in this world."

Despite this initial enthusiasm for Sarah Palin, the man she admires most might well sabotage her as well as McCain. After all, the presidential ticket ambitions of Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton (one could argue) were thwarted by their husbands. Jack-of-all-trades Todd Palin has yet to be scrutinized. From the Alaskan north slopes to the fishing docks, from the union hall of the USW to the world of snow machine racing, men must already be sharing a few stories about husband Palin. There's also the small matter of national and foreign policy gravitas--owned by Joe Biden and not the governor of the Aleutian Islands, no matter their geography. In the October St. Louis debate bout, Governor Palin could turn out to be another Dan Quayle or James Stockdale, and a weak showing on her part would deliver a knock-out blow to John McCain. However much Alaskans and conservative Republicans like Sarah Palin many experience an underlying anxiety about her readiness to sit in the Oval Office is already coalescing nationwide.

McCain's choice of Palin is characteristic of him, for he's drawn to risk, the long odds and the pleasures of the game, sometimes to the point where confidence becomes carelessness. Nevertheless, in their toughness and penchant for taking on issues of reform and spending, the two pols share a perspective. Not that John McCain, however much he may admire Sarah Palin, will depend upon her. Whenever someone has stood in a McCain town hall meeting to ask the Senator's thoughts on choosing a running mate, McCain has always been dismissive, making the same joke: "The role of the Vice-President is to break a tie in the Senate and to inquire daily as to the health of the President." McCain can sometimes be very funny, but this remark is more passive-aggressive than humorous. On the one hand, he's telling us that he thinks little of the office of Vice-President -- that it's ceremonial. And certainly in the unlikely event that Sarah Palin goes to Washington, it's even more unlikely that John McCain will give her an opportunity to sweep out the Congressional Augean stables or to "do so many things for women." On the other hand, there will be a long line of her fellow citizens looking over her shoulder as Palin makes that daily inquiry.

Coming to McCain's Dayton Rally straight from the Democratic Convention in Denver, the difference in style between the two campaigns struck me full force. An Obama main event is thought through and planned to the nth degree, stage-managed and controlled, orchestrated as beautifully as anything Moliere ever created for the court of Louis XIV at Versailles. John McCain, however, cares nothing for presentation and the appearance of things; his lack of interest has filtered down through his campaign. Nowhere has this been more obvious than at the Dayton Rally. If the Obama Campaign had been staging a major debut in Dayton, home of the Wright Brothers, the advance planners would've chosen a symbolic location for the rally, like Dayton Aviation Heritage National Park or the Wright Brothers Aviation Center or -- even more spectacular -- the National Museum of the United States Air Force. But no, the McCain campaign, seemingly at random, chose the Ervin J. Nutter Center, a dim, dingy and rather depressing college arena no different from the other school gymnasiums, except in size, that have been home to the majority of campaign events for over a year. And John McCain was a fighter pilot, for heaven's sake! And Friday was McCain's birthday and Palin's wedding anniversary. But it's classic McCain to miss the mark when it comes to stagecraft.

On the other hand, the Dayton Rally, like other McCain events, through its pedestrian pacing and halting orchestration (the mikes didn't work half the time) achieved an authenticity that often eludes the Obama folk, despite (or because of) their greater effort. There's something artless and therefore charming about a battle of high school/college bands as the musical prelude to the introduction of an American vice presidential nominee. In retrospect, the Obama finale in Denver, with its pyrotechnic triumphalism may have been -- well, a little too Versailles, as well as a high bar for Democratic conventions to meet in the future. Neither John McCain nor Sarah Palin would ever spend that kind of money on show--a strength they can use to advantage.

The basketball arena was a fitting venue for Sarah Barracuda, who played herself back in the day. She was completely at ease and most engaging, although as a pair McCain and she were hilarious -- McCain not used to even five minutes of second-fiddledom, Palin nearly whacking her presumptive boss as she gestured with her arms. She immediately reminded me of Sally Field as The Flying Nun, and she wore her hair messily pulled back with the kind of plastic clip that my daughters keep telling me is out-of-style. But she kicks butt. A lot of older women, as they hear more about Sarah Palin I predict, are going to find it soul-satisfying that she has run the old boys of Alaska to ground.

Energy policy as the centerpiece of Election 2008 -- the "exotic" states of Hawaii and Alaska playing role -- who would've thought? And now Sarah Barracuda. It just keeps getting better and better out on the trail.

Comments

[bruic]

So Sarah Palin is the number 2 pick. Compared to Obama, she, indeed has more experience and has made more decisions. Biden is Obama's #2 pick, with lots more experience, and a considerable record. Unfortunately for Obama, Biden's record cannot be hidden. His decisions have usually been wrong-headed, and he is an intense partisan. Partisanship is not the overriding sentiment of the McCain/Palin ticket.

[lvdragonlady]

The headline of this article only proves that there are people out there that will believe ANYTHING you tell them.
Way to go Ohio

[NotMcCain]

So McCain chooses a woman as his VP and passes over the WELL QUALIFIED Republican women to choose someone with nothing to recommend her except being anti-choice, and serving for less than two years in a weak governor state with much less population than the district Obama served as state senator of in Illinois.



And THIS is embraced by many Republicans and Independents (and media lackeys) as "genius"?



When we're in a recession and AT WAR? (And being left with huge problems from the largest deficit and trade imbalance in history to a need to restore the Constitution in the WH)?



I'm at a loss to understand half the voters of this country

[NotMcCain]

So McCain chooses a woman as his VP and passes over the WELL QUALIFIED Republican women to choose someone with nothing to recommend her except being anti-choice, and serving for less than two years in a weak governor state with much less population than the district Obama served as state senator of in Illinois.

And THIS is embraced by many Republicans and Independents (and media lackeys) as "genius"?

When we're in a recession and AT WAR? (And being left with huge problems from the largest deficit and trade imbalance in history to a need to restore the Constitution in the WH)?

I'm at a loss to understand half the voters of this country. Why can they look at Palin, picture her in the WH, and see anything positive at all?

[jungpatawan]

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

On, oh, so many levels, Mayhill.

Let's go over this again: the plural of anecdote is NOT data.

jp

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

With the newest revelation about Palin's family, I wonder whether people will pay attention to the right narrative about her. The one I'm hearing on cable now is "Sarah Palin, wonderful mom who kept her Down child and who is supporting her daughter in a hard time." The narrative I see is "Sarah Palin, the Pentecostal who kept her Down child and wants to force all other women to do the same, who believes in abstinence-only education and opposes sex ed so that our daughters, like hers, are very likely to become pregnant at 17."

[uclafan]

who went to work 2 days after he was born and now has her 17 year old daughter publicly providing the care...

[MHR55]

Polls about Palin at this point mean nothing either way. As people find out more about her on a daily basis, their opinions about her will change and not for the better (assuming she doesn't quit in the next week or so, a real possibility with all the negative reports coming out about her).

[wookierage]

Can't wait to see how OH reacts to the news about her TEENAGED daughter being pregnant.

[hypnotoad72]

"Country First" - does that mean we'll have the national debt resolved?

[tompoe]

Name your summit: Palin-Putin, Palin-Amahdinejad. Palin-Chavez. As president stepping into the shoes of McCain when he is incapacitated, do we feel warm and fuzzy? Can we look to her to sort out Columbian issues, better than Bush?

[judgeinmillvalley]

Your gushing and rhapsodic evaluation of Sarah Palin is right up there with your analysis of Obama--shallow and lacking skill.

She's not qualified to do anything except be a heckofajob Brownie in the McCain administration. If women vote for her they care nothing for abortion rights and indeed, are allowing every rapist to pick the mother of his child. They will be ignoring that she has flip flopped on the Bridge to Nowhere--looking at what's expedient-- and has been embroiled in abuse of power scandals. She recently said she didn't know what a VP did--something even high schoolers learn in classes. People who were going to vote for McCain anyway love Palin because she's so perky and cute and young. But for a 72 year-old-man who said he would pick the most qualified person to be VP, this is a disgrace.

Yet I don't count her out. This is the party that brought purple band-aids to celebrate Kerry's wartime service. So funny talk about hunting moose and shooting from the hip is right on that level. If the American people fall for for casting a national sit com rather than picking skilled people, we deserve what we get.

[confuseddemocrat]

We democrats do ourselves a disservice to underestimate the ability of the Sarah Palin nomination to pull votes toward McCain.

Regardless of our acceptance of the professional woman such as Hillary and Michelle, America still prefers to see women as wives, mothers and ladies who are slightly subservient to men. Example, Laura Bush and Cindy McCain are viewed more postively than Michele Obama and Teresa Heinz Kerry

The PTA, mom-sensibilities, hockey mom schitck of Palin will be appealing not only to the christian conservatives but also traditionally Dem voters such as blue collar workers, catholics, "hardworking whites", and yes women..particularly stay- at-home moms and those women with limited education.

[itsme23]

ummmm yeah....that's not hard to tell why...they are both either a woman of color or foreign born with an accent! If they looked like came straight out of stepford....it would be a totally different scenerio...don't let that fool you!

[Hellooo]

I thought we and the whole of America had had enough of electing cheerleaders and drinking buddies

[reasonshouldrule]

It's refreshing to see that HuffPost allows some right wing writers along with all the more liberal ones--I guess.

[candymancan]

Wow - finally an article favoring McCain/Palin on HP. Just imagine this - Alaskans are getting over $3000 end of September in their dividend checks this year - a good two months earlier than usual. All because this woman was thinking of the working class and the natives so they can stock up on resources through the winter. When I left Alaska in 1987, I had thought the dividend would end someday - it's be over 20 years and all my friends and relatives still get them. This year they get the additional 1200 - thanks to Palin. If she can apply her techniques when she gets to Washington, we just may have lower taxes and major spending cuts. I believe in her!

[brighterside]

Well that won't happen. First, I don't think McCain wants that. She will play second fiddle to McCain and will do whatever pleases him. You think he likes being told what to do by a women? Guess again.

Secondly, Alaska has a small population rich with oil. They have to pay people just to live there. You credit Palin for getting an additional 1200. But why can't republicans can't see the good that Barack wants to do for the entire middle class of America by giving them a $1000 + tax break? I don't get it.