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Reporting The Obama Campaign Coast-to-Coast: Democrats More Undecided Than Polls Suggest
Reported by: Jason Barnett (Uptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Theuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson. Original reports available on OffTheBus.
As the Barack Obama campaign canvassed door-to-door this past weekend in scores of communities across the country, a snapshot of a campaign fueled by an unique mix of a non-confrontational style, a message of hope and sometimes unwitting amateurishness emerges.
This mid-fall freeze-frame also paints a picture of a Democratic electorate significantly more ambivalent and undecided than recent polls indicated and perhaps less motivated by the war in Iraq and more by domestic issues than previously suggested.
The portrait of the Obama campaign operating at ground level among national Democratic voters is a product of a new type of citizen journalism. In an unprecedented effort of campaign reporting, nearly two dozen Off The Bus correspondents monitored Obama Canvass for Change events in fourteen cities in nine crucial states during the past 48 hours and contributed to this report from venues as disparate as Keene, NH, Des Moines and Dubuque, and Minneapolis; Studio City, Corte Madera, Berkeley, Sacramento, Koreatown - Los Angeles, and Altadena, CA; from Boise, Brooklyn and Ballard; from Manhattan, KS, Memphis and Charlotte, NC. (To see all of our campaign monitor reports click here.)
Despite neighborhood and regional differences, and although the levels of sophistication and competency among the individual campaign events varied, our correspondents found several common themes, the most striking of which is to what degree Democrats still declare themselves undecided.
It's abundantly clear that, less than four months before the onslaught of decisive primaries and caucuses, many Democratic voters have just not made up their minds. "Of those that would speak to us, almost all were undecided," reports correspondent Phoebe Love who followed the Obama canvass through Ballard, Washington. She is echoed by contributor Ethan Hova in Studio City, a middle-class Democratic suburban stronghold in Los Angeles: "The vast majority of voters were very much undecided and expressed reluctance to engage in debate without conducting research on their own." Daniel Macht, following the Obama campaign in Brooklyn, New York noted the same hesitation: "They were all undecided, save one Edwards supporter." Perhaps most importantly, correspondent Beverly Davis reports from Des Moines, "Smith [ an Obama volunteer] knocks on Dan Arply's door and launches into his opening rap but Arply soon interrupts by saying, 'Thanks for stopping by, but I haven't decided on supporting anyone yet.' Arply is a typical Iowan."
It's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from such anecdotal material but it might suggest that the slew of recent polls giving Hillary Clinton a commanding lead in the race for the nomination may be of limited utility. Correspondent Hova found widespread indifference toward Clinton as he went door-to-door with the Obama canvassers: "This was a fairly affluent suburb north of Los Angeles and I was really surprised not to find a single Hillary supporter in the neighborhood."
It's possible that numerous Democrats who have declared for Clinton to a pollster are like the shopper who hoists a likely candidate from the pumpkin bin inside the supermarket door. Maybe a keeper, maybe not, for there's the possibility of a better find further along in produce.
Balancing this good news for Obama is the likelihood that the centerpiece of Saturday's Canvass, retelling the story of Obama's opposition to the War in Iraq, was a bust. Kelly Nuxoll reports from the Left Coast of Berkeley, "The war seemed nominally an issue, but social issues, health care . . . also came up a lot." Nominally an issue--in Berkeley? Christine Escobar in Dubuque: "Only viewed one 25 year old woman responding to the war message." Deborah Phelan in Corte Madera in liberal Northern California found similar responses: "People were very much tired of talking about the Iraq war." Ditto for Daniel Macht in Brooklyn: "All said the war wasn't the only issue they cared about."
If the war is less and less a campaign issue for ordinary Americans in California and New York (and who would have predicted this?), then what is the mindset of the less liberal Democratic voter in the heartland? From what I saw of the canvass in Memphis, not a single person cared about Barack Obama's position vis-à-vis anybody else on the Iraq War.
Instead, health care reform seemed to top the priority list for Democratic voters contacted by the Obama canvassers. Correspondent Davis in Des Moines reports: "Arply tells Smith that he likes Obama and that he's concerned about health care." Contributot Saba Kennedy in Charlotte, NC: "...healthcare was a BIG issue." Clinton, Edwards and Obama have all put forward health insurance plans modest enough in scope to seem, at least on first glance, to be possibilities. Therefore, it's not surprising that grassroots Democratic voters are beginning to shift their attention from the war to a more hopeful subject.
This past weekend's national Canvass for Change like all things Obama, carried with it an aura of transformation. As contributor Deborah Plummer found, "Obama has sparked a light in young people." Reporting from Manhattan, KS, she goes on to say, "So, 20 volunteers [at the canvass] for Obama seems a lot to me. I went to KSU for over 20 years and never met over 10 liberals/progressives the entire time and to think there could be a rising tide of 20 potential liberals/progressives who will be spanning out to Manhattan households spreading Obama's philosophy is awesome...." Laura Martin in a very red-tinged Boise found a similar glitter: "Idaho hasn't sent a Democrat to the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson, but I do believe come Super Tuesday 2008, Idaho is going blue for Obama."
Countering some this Obama magic, however, is a growing frustration among his volunteers that he is not moving up in the polls. Ethan Hova from Studio City again: "We encountered several households of fervent Obama supporters and their mood could be summed up as frustrated. They seemed mostly concerned about his perceived lack of traction in the polls...." But the grassroots volunteers slog on. As Deborah Phelan reports from Corte Madera, "Volunteer Sandy Grant laughs about the big Barack Obama supporter she talked to who showed up later to register to vote at the booth. 'Look at us, so excited about one teenager when there are millions of people across America who have to register.' Everybody nods. They're all thinking the same thing. One vote at a time."
(Indeed, Deborah Phalen and I found such contrasting pictures of the Obama campaign in Northern California and Tennessee respectivively that I will detail the differences in an upcoming report).
There were also some moments of unintended humor and general weirdness that punctuated the weekend canvass. One older street vendor in Brooklyn yelled "Take a bath!" at one earnest Obama supporter passing out flyers to passersby. At other events, the organizers sometimes outnumbered the canvassers, reminding some newbie volunteers that effective politics is really about the art of building coalitions. Make sure and read all of our ground level reports assembled in the last 48 hours by clicking here.
Off The Bus campaign monitors (Jason Barnett (Theuptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Thuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson) contributed to this report. If you'd like to work wtih us on future campaign reports, join our OffTheBus Campaign Monitors team. -END
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I prefer a politician who worked in the community for 8 years BEFORE he ran for higher office. I prefer a man who took his education and instead of turning his back on the urban areas and the poor; He went back there and helped the community.
The electoral process, at a time when true change is needed and wanted, seems to have gone into a media/ marketing/money overdrive. Inevitability?, electability and corporatism, once again give us the choice between Coke or Pepsi. Meanwhile we are asked to give power to those who would perpetuate war, inequality, fear, and the destruction of our democratic system. Why are our choices decided by the very entities that have brought us to this insanity and refuse to refute the illusions that keep us marching towards fascism?
I am a 67 year old Democrat who worked for Clinton/Gore twice and in 2000 for Gore.I like Hilary but will not be supporting her because I hold her responsible for this far too early and unforgivably costly campaign. Our country needed these DCites in Washington for the past year not gallivanting across the nation. Last I checked they were elected to do a very important job and they all get an F from me for the last year.
I suspect that this is one of the main reasons that you found so many undecideds among the Dems.
The country is ready for a woman or minority as President and I do think highly of Obama but his lack of experience on the International scene is what is holding him back this time.
I guess that I am leaning toward Richardson but at this time the only person who would get my support is Al Gore.
The HuffPo Obamanians have already had their primary and contrary to what anyone else thinks or what any polls may state they are trying to convince us all that Hillary can not win.When the words Madame President roll off people's tongues they will probably start with some reason why the Clinton's rigged the electorate
"They are trying to convince us all that Hillary can not win."
Can she win? Yes. Will she attack Iran or, at the very least, alienate most of the Arab world? Yes.
Will she keep the country completely split across political lines? Yes.
Will she let her corporate, Washington lobbysists participate in shaping public policy (example: let insurance companies have input in a new healthcare plan)? Absolutely yes.
Will America be markedly better than what we already have with Bush in office? NOPE!
ConcernAmerican !
You think Hillary will win you are smoking something !! Be brave and just say that YOU are not ready for a Black President. Harold Ford was running in one state and his history and background is not the same as Barack. Don't be afraid. My Mom tells me that people like you felt the same thing about Kennedy in 1960...."A
MsCiara,
I call a spade a spade, I'm a REALIST and pragmatist. USA is not ready for a black President and that's a fact. Alan Keyes has MORE experience than Obama and has MORE support, he did not win the nomination. Maybe USA will have a black President, but not in my lifetime.
This is crap.
America was ready to elect Colin Powell until he sold us out.
If Obama doesn't get anywhere it's won't be because of ethnicity, it will be because he is triangulating a la Clinton.
Good point that I think folks overlook - by all measures, Colin Powell definitely passed on his chance to make history. He would have won overwhelmingly had he entered the race - a Afr-Am, more liberal Republican, with an impressive military career to boot. But he decided the political arena was not for him. Boy, if we could have only had a Powell presidency instead of W!
Concern American, you wrote: USA is not ready for a black President and that's a fact.
Baloney. there is no way you can prove this empirically. It's your opinion and that's it. I know plenty of voters who are ready to vote for a balck president.
You also wrote: Alan Keyes has MORE experience than Obama and has MORE support, he did not win the nomination. To that I can only add LOL.
Interesting choice of semantics but I'm sure you meant cards when you say a spade is a spade.....
>>Maybe USA will have a black President, but not in my lifetime.
If you have to lie to make a point, then it usually isn't worth making in the first place.
"Keyes, a former State Department official under President Reagan, made unsuccessful presidential runs in 1996 and 2000.
He also has been a Senate candidate from Maryland, and, in 2004, he suffered a 43-percentage point loss to Democrat Barack."
http://ap.
Polls only sample 1,000 to 2,000 people , which only averages 20 persons per state per 1,000 people sampled. One can see that the samples can be very bias depending on the type or way a question is asked or the type and place that a person is sampled.
I agree health care in one of the top concerns of this nation. But, I also believe Americans are looking for someone to reverse the total changes and destruction to our military, economy, social programs and our national honor which has been done by Bush, Cheney, republicans and the lack of action from the democrats.
I think there is a order of events in which Americans want these to be changed, but they want them started on yesterday and not so much talk , but action and quickly. The problem is we have the news media and the elite group of government officials trying to tell you what you wish and how you wish to have it. We want changes started yesterday , with the talk stopped and the acton started.
I am sick and tired of someone with their nose up Bush's a.... using a talk show or the news media to tell me how I should think and want I wish , while they kiss up to keep their nice fat income....
Well. You have some very deep and profound observations about polls and statistics here.
I suggest you write it all up as a paper and get it published in whatever journal statisticians read.
Fascinating, truly.
The Neocons wanted Obama to be the nominee for the democratic party. Either we like it or not, USA will not allow a black man to lead this country. Remember that black candidate in Tennesse? He was up in the polls, when the election was over, he lost against the white republican candidate.
IF Obama is the nominee for the democratic party, the next President of USA is a REPUBLICAN, mark my words.
ConcernAmnerican,
Below you wrote this: "Alan Keyes has bigger support compared to Obama."
Can you please link the article/in
I don't believe it, and I know that you don't either.
Jeezus, can you guys get together and get your story straight?
Just yesterday the two threads about Clinton being in the lead were filled with ravings along the line of "The neocons are forcing Hillary on us"...
Get back to me when y'all have your story straight.
But I do wish that Obama would get his thumb out of his ass and start running for president.
Members of the Purity Brigade need not respond.
A BLACK man NOT winning in TENNESSE..
TN is as advanced as Alabama, "Missurah", and any other state where killing people because of their skin color without anyone blinking an eye was practiced 40 years ago....if not less.
These will be the LAST states to "progress" in society... if they don't take us all down with them.
Actually.
Tennesse has another Senatorial contest in '08, and Ford is considered a very stron contestant.
I think he will win the seat.
And I'm soooooo impressed with all of you who come on here to bloviate but do not know that Ford's name is Ford.
Georgia guy and "Concerned American" You two are too much , I would have more respect for people to just say "I am not ready to vote for a Black President" instead of saying American's not ready. That is a not true and is is NOT being honest. Let's have a honest discussion. Don't hide behind the excuse. If you are READY for woman , say it ! But don't justify by hiding !
And Georgia, Edwards has LESS experience than Barack. And I am sorry to say He should be Vice President now if he was able to WIN his own state !! Come on People don't be afraid of the future ! But please have the courage to say what YOU think NOT hide behind what "other's won't do".
Amen, Maam!
VERY interesting article, confirming what I have been suspecting as I have seen VERY little support for HILLARY from my hard-core Democratic friends...
This begs the question: WHAT IS UP WITH THE POLLS?! I was hoping this article would answer that question, as I was STAGGERED that the press all came out with Hillary on top BEFORE the OCT. 15th deadline.
ANY more information on how the polls are being determined would be SO appreciated.
Yes, those pesky polls.
Why don;t the polling companies only poll your "hard-core Democratic friends"?
If they did, then they would finally be telling us the TRUTH about HRC's support with likely Democratic primary voters, right?
Perhaps you and your two friends could provide a case study for ConcernAmerican's paper to the Royal Acadamy of Statiticians.
Sorry, that is bushsunkourship who is writing that paper...
Go to youtube and lookup a user named Zennie Abraham. He has a nice analysis on the usefullness and the trickery induced by these polls. These polls should be done away with. They have an unjust influence in voting. It's like tampering with the jury. When people start using the polls to affect their decistion making, then our democracy is in jepordy.. The media tries to be king/queen maker in the elections,. just as they sold the war to many americans.
Yes, these polls should indeed be done away with!
What other elements of free speech would you care to nominate for banning?
Perhaps political pundits should all have their tounges cut out. Because they have "an unjust infulence in voting".
Truly, I'm fascinated by your theories of how restrictions on speech are gong to save "our democracy".
IMO the polls are owned by whoever wants them to say what they say. *S* I never go by the polls.
Michigan is doing something which is quite interesting I think. They have elected, don't know who they are but, to up the primary so ONLY Clinton and Dodd will be on the Dems primary for President. I say it's a test of the dems. to see if Clinton can be elected. Anyone have any thoughts on this? What else could be the real reason for cutting all the others out? I'm not voting but if I do it will be for Dodd (which I actually don't want) because I'm in the ABC crowd for sure (anybody but Clinton). Not that I don't like her it's just I don't like what she will do with America.
WHAT IS UP WITH THE POLLS?
I don't know but here are a few thoughts that may be worthy of consideration:
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
Somebody pays for every poll that is taken which means, at a minimum, that they (the payer) has influence over what questions are asked and how they are worded. Also, how can any sane person rule out the POSSIBILITY, in this win at any cost nation, that many entities might attempt to control the outcome of polls. We've been lied to about just everything that matters so why is it so hard to believe that the polls might be rigged?
People will lie to pollsters just to "feel better about themselves" and then do the opposite of their poll answer....
This is my personal opinion: I believe the Republicans view HRC as the candidate (among the the 3 leaders) they would most like to run against. I believe there are two rather opposed reasons:
They believe that of the three she would be the one they could possibly defeat.
They believe that if they did not defeat her, she (of the 3) would be the President most ideologically and practically compatible with them.
Think inevitability = bandwagon = self-fulfilling prophecy.
Contrary to the cliche "cream always rises to the top" it is slime that always rises and because of this Hillary Clinton will win the nomination.
Spoke the party loyalist.
Remember, Nader is spelt N A D E R, for when you go to write in your choice and give the election to the Republicans.
Thanks!
Senator Clinton had a fundraiser in Koreatown in LA where she was given a hanbok. The news about the fundraiser was reported in Digital Chosunilbo. http://eng
The media chooses two or three potential candidates and sends reporters to follow just those candidates. It saves money that way. The produce a phoney horse-race for a few people to follow. The candidates practice canned responses in pseudo-debate fashion. A week before the Iowa primary a few sleepy people in Des Moines will make a call, and vois la. You have a candidate.
The first one now
may later be last
just ask McCain!
If Al Gore runs for President, he's got my vote! I would probably never vote for Hillary. Otherwise, I'm undecided too.
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