Reporting The Obama Campaign Coast-to-Coast: Democrats More Undecided Than Polls Suggest

Reported by: Jason Barnett (Uptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Theuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson. Original reports available on OffTheBus.

As the Barack Obama campaign canvassed door-to-door this past weekend in scores of communities across the country, a snapshot of a campaign fueled by an unique mix of a non-confrontational style, a message of hope and sometimes unwitting amateurishness emerges.

This mid-fall freeze-frame also paints a picture of a Democratic electorate significantly more ambivalent and undecided than recent polls indicated and perhaps less motivated by the war in Iraq and more by domestic issues than previously suggested.

The portrait of the Obama campaign operating at ground level among national Democratic voters is a product of a new type of citizen journalism. In an unprecedented effort of campaign reporting, nearly two dozen Off The Bus correspondents monitored Obama Canvass for Change events in fourteen cities in nine crucial states during the past 48 hours and contributed to this report from venues as disparate as Keene, NH, Des Moines and Dubuque, and Minneapolis; Studio City, Corte Madera, Berkeley, Sacramento, Koreatown - Los Angeles, and Altadena, CA; from Boise, Brooklyn and Ballard; from Manhattan, KS, Memphis and Charlotte, NC. (To see all of our campaign monitor reports click here.)

Despite neighborhood and regional differences, and although the levels of sophistication and competency among the individual campaign events varied, our correspondents found several common themes, the most striking of which is to what degree Democrats still declare themselves undecided.

It's abundantly clear that, less than four months before the onslaught of decisive primaries and caucuses, many Democratic voters have just not made up their minds. "Of those that would speak to us, almost all were undecided," reports correspondent Phoebe Love who followed the Obama canvass through Ballard, Washington. She is echoed by contributor Ethan Hova in Studio City, a middle-class Democratic suburban stronghold in Los Angeles: "The vast majority of voters were very much undecided and expressed reluctance to engage in debate without conducting research on their own." Daniel Macht, following the Obama campaign in Brooklyn, New York noted the same hesitation: "They were all undecided, save one Edwards supporter." Perhaps most importantly, correspondent Beverly Davis reports from Des Moines, "Smith [ an Obama volunteer] knocks on Dan Arply's door and launches into his opening rap but Arply soon interrupts by saying, 'Thanks for stopping by, but I haven't decided on supporting anyone yet.' Arply is a typical Iowan."

It's difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from such anecdotal material but it might suggest that the slew of recent polls giving Hillary Clinton a commanding lead in the race for the nomination may be of limited utility. Correspondent Hova found widespread indifference toward Clinton as he went door-to-door with the Obama canvassers: "This was a fairly affluent suburb north of Los Angeles and I was really surprised not to find a single Hillary supporter in the neighborhood."

It's possible that numerous Democrats who have declared for Clinton to a pollster are like the shopper who hoists a likely candidate from the pumpkin bin inside the supermarket door. Maybe a keeper, maybe not, for there's the possibility of a better find further along in produce.

Balancing this good news for Obama is the likelihood that the centerpiece of Saturday's Canvass, retelling the story of Obama's opposition to the War in Iraq, was a bust. Kelly Nuxoll reports from the Left Coast of Berkeley, "The war seemed nominally an issue, but social issues, health care . . . also came up a lot." Nominally an issue--in Berkeley? Christine Escobar in Dubuque: "Only viewed one 25 year old woman responding to the war message." Deborah Phelan in Corte Madera in liberal Northern California found similar responses: "People were very much tired of talking about the Iraq war." Ditto for Daniel Macht in Brooklyn: "All said the war wasn't the only issue they cared about."

If the war is less and less a campaign issue for ordinary Americans in California and New York (and who would have predicted this?), then what is the mindset of the less liberal Democratic voter in the heartland? From what I saw of the canvass in Memphis, not a single person cared about Barack Obama's position vis-à-vis anybody else on the Iraq War.

Instead, health care reform seemed to top the priority list for Democratic voters contacted by the Obama canvassers. Correspondent Davis in Des Moines reports: "Arply tells Smith that he likes Obama and that he's concerned about health care." Contributot Saba Kennedy in Charlotte, NC: "...healthcare was a BIG issue." Clinton, Edwards and Obama have all put forward health insurance plans modest enough in scope to seem, at least on first glance, to be possibilities. Therefore, it's not surprising that grassroots Democratic voters are beginning to shift their attention from the war to a more hopeful subject.

This past weekend's national Canvass for Change like all things Obama, carried with it an aura of transformation. As contributor Deborah Plummer found, "Obama has sparked a light in young people." Reporting from Manhattan, KS, she goes on to say, "So, 20 volunteers [at the canvass] for Obama seems a lot to me. I went to KSU for over 20 years and never met over 10 liberals/progressives the entire time and to think there could be a rising tide of 20 potential liberals/progressives who will be spanning out to Manhattan households spreading Obama's philosophy is awesome...." Laura Martin in a very red-tinged Boise found a similar glitter: "Idaho hasn't sent a Democrat to the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson, but I do believe come Super Tuesday 2008, Idaho is going blue for Obama."

Countering some this Obama magic, however, is a growing frustration among his volunteers that he is not moving up in the polls. Ethan Hova from Studio City again: "We encountered several households of fervent Obama supporters and their mood could be summed up as frustrated. They seemed mostly concerned about his perceived lack of traction in the polls...." But the grassroots volunteers slog on. As Deborah Phelan reports from Corte Madera, "Volunteer Sandy Grant laughs about the big Barack Obama supporter she talked to who showed up later to register to vote at the booth. 'Look at us, so excited about one teenager when there are millions of people across America who have to register.' Everybody nods. They're all thinking the same thing. One vote at a time."

(Indeed, Deborah Phalen and I found such contrasting pictures of the Obama campaign in Northern California and Tennessee respectivively that I will detail the differences in an upcoming report).

There were also some moments of unintended humor and general weirdness that punctuated the weekend canvass. One older street vendor in Brooklyn yelled "Take a bath!" at one earnest Obama supporter passing out flyers to passersby. At other events, the organizers sometimes outnumbered the canvassers, reminding some newbie volunteers that effective politics is really about the art of building coalitions. Make sure and read all of our ground level reports assembled in the last 48 hours by clicking here.

Off The Bus campaign monitors (Jason Barnett (Theuptake.org), Al Cannistraro, Sheila Condit, Beverly Davis, Christine Escobar, Mayhill Fowler, Richard Greenwood, Ethan Hova, Saba Kennedy, Noah Kunin (Thuptake.org), Phoebe Love, Daniel Macht, Kim Mack, Laura Martin, Kelly Nuxoll, Deborah Phelan, Deborah Plummer, and Jeremy Thompson) contributed to this report. If you'd like to work wtih us on future campaign reports, join our OffTheBus Campaign Monitors team. -END

Comments

[captnEarl]

Lets hope and pray that the democratic nominee isn't all sowed up with HRC at this early date. There are quite a few excellant canidates not yet getting the attention warranted.

[YankeeCanuck]

Hint: There are more than two possible candidates for the nomination. Some may be even better qualified than Clinton and Obama. Who would have guessed?We shall see if all that money and all that press windbaggery creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or, if Iowans think for themselves and come out strongly for another candidate altogether. If they do, that candidate has a darn good shot at the presidency.

[Hopalongpoppyseed]

Yes, wouldn't it be great if one of the so called second tier candidates came out of Iowa strong enough to offer an alternative? One can hope.

[eugenegerard]

The POLLS are BULL. The Clinton machine is trying to show a winner that KNOW ONE wants.

Hillary and the DLC backed Lieberman,
Until she felt the heat and wielded out of all out support.
She voted for the War and continued funding of it.
She voted for the Patriot Act. TWICE
She voted a NV for the Credit Card and Banking Bill which Equaled a Yes in a Republican Congress.
She voted for the REAL ID ACT.
She would renew NAFTA.
She is a Corporatist.
She is not a Democrat.
She is part of the problem.

NO MORE CLINTONS

NO MORE CLINTONS

NO MORE CLINTONS

[BreadandRoses]

The media focus on the horse-race aspect of the campaign, and the over-reliance on polls cheapens the entire process, and misinforms voters.

[ConcernAmerican]

Is America ready for a black President? Alan Keyes has bigger support compared to Obama. A lot of Obama supporters are young people in their 20's, how many of these young people are registered to vote? Supporters of Hillary Clinton are people in their 40's, majority are registered to vote and cast their vote during election time. Although Presidential election is 12 months away, the primary election is only a few months away. Right now among the democratic candidates for President, Hillary Clinton is way ahead of other candidates. In the Republican side, its between Romney and Guiliani.

When it comes to donors, Hillary Clinton received more donors from average Americans than Barak Obama. When it comes to healthcare, Hillary Clinton fought for Universal healthcare during the Clinton administration which was killed by Republican dominated congress. Anyone of this candidates talking about healthcare and how to provide every citizens of USA a coverage is plain copycat what Hillary had been trying to do.

Yes, it boils down indeed to economy. The Clinton years was the best years, we had a very good economy, we had surplus, a lot of jobs. I haven't attended any rallies for Hillary Clinton, but I've already made a decision she's my candidate from primary to Presidential, she'll be the nominee for the democratic party.

Lets face the truth, USA is NOT ready for a black President, but the nation is ready for a female President.

[Axekick]

Alan Keys has bigger support than Barack Obama? Then please explain how Obama won 68% of the Illinois Senate seat to Alan Keys dismal 24%? Alan Keys only had a three percent higher approval rating by Republicans than did Obama.

[AmandaM]

1. Alan Keyes was Obama's opponent in his Illinois Senate race and we all know who won there. Keyes is also about as far right as a person can get without turning all the way around. Your statement is both useless and baseless.

2. Barack Obama has had more campaign contributions that Hillary Clinton. Period. She's been getting more of the big money donors, sure. But where do you think all those $50 and $100 checks for Obama are coming from if not average Americans.

3. Hillary's idea of universal healthcare still involves too much dependence on private insurance companies. I applaud her for trying, but her solution doesn't actually fix the problem.

4. The Clinton years were very prosperous and, for the most part, peaceful. But this is a whole new era. If you actually want changes to be made instead of re-hashing old ideas, you can't just accept another 4 (or, God forbid 8) more years of the Bush/Clinton dynasties.

Do not trust these people who tell you Clinton is the inevitable nominee. She is not what this country needs and electing her will only lead to more divisive government. Get the facts. Find out who can actually lead the entire country and not just the states that are bluest on election day. What George Bush has done to this country is inexcusable, and Hillary Clinton is incapable of fixing it.

[Pdubya]

Its been Guns or Butter for far too long. What pacifies one crowd gets them kicked out and so on and so on. Its those on the HILL, all of them, that are accountable to special interests groups, no matter what affiliation you are with....

vote ron paul. he will restore representative government.

former dem for ron paul
www.ronpaul2008.com

[mrman]

I think you "doth protest too much"...

[Andy823]

Yes the world may be ready for a female president, but not Hillary.

I have yet to hear her really talk about the issues, and what she will do to change them. A lot of double talk, but no real solutions to the problems, and that's not the kind of candidate that makes me want to vote for them.

[VSamuels]

Tim Russert debunked that it was the republican congress which prevented Hillary from getting her healthplan passed. He said it Sunday on 'Meet the Press' that it was Hillary, who prevented the plan from going forward, listing those like Lloyd Benson and Henry Chaffe who supported a more incremental plan. However, Hillary refused to compromise and lost.

Blaming the republicans for this seems to be a common tactic by some, but it is clear that Tim Russert had no agenda in retelling the nature of Hillary Clinton and her inability to work with a concensus of democrats and republicans' legislators.

And while we'll facing the truth, it is not the USA that isn't ready for a black president, it is a large group of white Americans who aren't particularly concerned with incompetent white men or white women being elevated to president, but still are to a potential black man becoming president.

Those holding racism views in the white community will never be READY, and saying this is remisnisent of some white ministers telling MLK, Jr. that the USA wasn't ready for intergration. It was nonsense then and it is nonsense now.

[georgiaguy]

I will vote from any of the current Democratic candidates over any of the Republicans in 2008, but Obama seems like the least prepared and not ready for the national stage. Do we need to repeat the last seven years to see what an unprepared commander-in-chief can do to a country? I am an Edwards supporter, but would be pleased to vote for Hillary in 2008. Rep. John Lewis, a veteran of the civil rights movement, just endorsed her and she represents our best hope to dislodge the Republicans next year. I am a teacher and the state Republicans have decided that we are overpaid. The lunatic speaker of the Georgia house has proposed doing away with the state income tax and property taxes. The effect will be to starve school systems and other local governments. The replacement is higher sales taxes and taxes on services. It's another Republican ploy to put more taxes on the little people and cut the tax bill of the wealthy. Another four years of Republican rule will destory this country.

[VSamuels]

While Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga) is a honorable man he is still living in a time warp of black politicans clinging their hopes on a liberal white candidate to bring them justice. When one looks at the presidency of Bill Clinton, one does not see a man who enacted any sweeping legislation that stands as a monument to enacting swift and lasting change for the African-American community.

Bill Clinton was perceived and still is perceived as being benevolent to the concerns of African-Americans, as some even referred to him as the 'first black president' (this honor belongs to Warren Harding), yet he did not change or affect housing, education, justice or employment to the degree it bettered lives. Sure, he spoke the right words, and showed great empathy towards the social issues, but when one reviews the lasting impact of the Clinton years on the lives of the average blacks in America, Nixon and his 8(a) business iniative program was far more effective in black American's lives.

Sure, those like Rep. Lewis may benefit from another Clinton, but it is unlikely that his constituents will see any improvement in those things that make a difference in their lives.

Those like Lewis, apparently are willing to trade inclusion for change.

[VSamuels]

Well, I have news for you--this country is already been destroyed by money, power, greed in the form of special interests' groups. Simply rearranging the chairs on the Titantic is not going to be the simple or easy answer. We need to re-establish honesty as a ethos in our national politics and the tendencies to blame partisanship for the country's ills. We need politicans who are willing to take responsibility and put their country before themselves. There is nothing in Hillary's past or future which would suggest she is capable of doing this.

If we simply default to replacing the well oiled PR machine of the Bush administration with the well oiled PR machine of one Hillary Clinton, we will be moving along the same disasterous path again. The Clinton years were peaceful with the exception of Kosovo, and the ecomony was rather robust, although it had started to leak fluid during his last couple of years. But, one of the more troubling aspects of the Clintons was Travelgate, Ron Brown and Monica Lewinsky.

Thus far in the debates, the one candidate who most pundits decry isn't answering the questions is Hillary, and if this start is any indicator of how she will govern, we won't have changed one iota in terms of reversing course.

[Jazz42]

I wonder what really happened to Ron Brown?
and a host of others on that plane. They say it crashed. I really have doubts as to what happened.

[Simone]

I agree that in Iowa there are a lot of undecideds or leaners who will only make their minds once they divide into preferences groups at their caucus. I'm leaning toward one candidate but that could change in the next four months. We have a wealth of candidates to pick among and I'll vote for whomever gets the nomination.

[RichardD]

This is entirely appropriate given that the actual election is still more than 12 months away. The time being hel for this run-up process is absurd to say the least. Any analysis now is virtually 100% speculation and guesswork.

[AmericanIdle]

ever heard of primaries?