Tom Hayden Predicts Obama Will Lose

DENVER -- Speaking at a luncheon hosted by the Denver Press Club at the Denver Athletic Club today, former California state legislator and '60s political activist Tom Hayden predicted that Barack Obama will lose the 2008 Election. "An African-American candidate talking about economics and a white war hero -- it's clear to me who is going to win," Hayden said. When one of the attendees at the small luncheon, attended mostly by Denverites, asked him to be more specific about why he thinks Obama will lose the race, Hayden replied, "You don't think McCain's gonna have a convention about his being an American." Hayden seemed to be referring to the fact that Barack Obama continues to introduce himself to the American electorate. Hayden elaborated. "I've known kookie Cokie, kookie Cokie Roberts for years, but when Obama vacationed in Hawaii, she said, "He shoulda gone to Myrtle Beach." Hayden turned out his hands, as if to say what're you gonna do?

Hayden went further. "[Obama's] problem is that he's lived in the world of beating the Democratic establishment for so long, it's hard to transition to being the Democratic establishment." Hayden is part of the group Progressives for Obama, but he has his issues with the candidate. "There's the pursuit of the last white man standing in Pennsylvania," he said, rather than a fierce pursuit of the Latino vote, which is what Hayden would like to see.

Given Hayden's history of confrontation with the police, famously at the Chicago Democratic Convention in 1968, perhaps it's not surprising that Hayden has a generally dark view. Much of his talk, which was advertised as an introduction to his new book A Tom Hayden Reader, centered on the police presence at the convention in Denver. Since the 1999 Seattle protests against the WTO, Hayden said that there has been "a continuous police build-up that concerns me since then." The brother of an old friend who lives on Denver's 16th Street Mall told Hayden that "he had never seen anything like it before"--that the police presence there is overwhelming, intimidating and edgy.

Apparently, the police have said that they have hundreds of weapons stored next to the mall, and that they bring them out every night and return them to their secret cache in the morning. Or anyway that's what the brother has confided to Tom Hayden. "All these horses on the mall -- it's like St. Petersburg 1905," Hayden said. The Denver Police Department has received $50 million from the Department of Homeland Security, according to Hayden. What concerns him is not only the massive police presence at the convention (the cop who spilled the beans about the weapons cache is convinced that something is going to happen here) but also the newly purchased technology, which will be used "in the barrio" long after the Democrats are gone. When Hayden says that the police create "an imaginary argument with your mind and with your nervous system," he almost seems to have made the point.

There's no need for so many police in Denver, Hayden says. "With Obama having opposed the war, there's no real reason for demonstrations." Hayden also feels that the "radicals of the 60s don't get credit for what has happened for good in the Democratic Party." He thinks there's too much harkening back to 1968. "All this talk about '68 because we have a fascination with round numbers," he quips. "Our country is full of the wreckage of the 60s."

Hayden observes that "there is a new social movement on a vast scale" centered right now in the Obama Campaign. "These young people will plant seeds for the next twenty-five years." But they are "small-d" Democrats, Hayden says, and they are environmentalists and idealists. "They don't want a war in :Pakistan!" And "if Obama loses, which I think he might," Hayden says, nevertheless the Democratic Party will have grown bigger. As for Obama, "he is losing. He is gonna lose the electoral college."

Hayden does offer a taste of Obama hope. "He gets one more chance to reboot, re-orient, redeploy." He offers the example of the Obama ad campaign on the McCain houses as a primer on how rebooting works these days. According to Hayden, some young investigators financed by Brave New Films in Los Angeles went to Arizona and filmed all the McCain homes and put the video on Youtube. Although the video went viral, nothing happened politically until a reporter from Politico saw it and then had a chance to ask John McCain himself the now-famous number question. Only then, Hayden reminded us, did the Obama team jump on. "Outsiders triggering situations -- that's the only way to win."

For more Huffington Post coverage from the Democratic National Convention, visit our Politics @ the DNC page, our Democratic Convention Big News Page, and our HuffPost bloggers' Twitter feed, live from Denver.

Comments

[JonLarson]

Hayden also said that power generated in nuclear power plants would be "too cheap to meter."

[Konnie]

i didn't read every comment anywhere on the net mind you - but has anyone stated the obvious?

Every person that mailed in $1 is going to vote for Obama.
Every person that is newly registered is going to vote for Obama.
And none of the pols - and i mean none of them cause they can't - have poled
those voters that only have cell phones - WHICH IS A HELL OF A LOT OF YOUNG FIRST
TIME VOTERS.

My biggest worry is not about who's going to turn out - i think its going to be the highest
election turn out in the history of our country - its who is doing the COUNTING!

remembering 2000......­..........­......

[rdplum]

I've listened to Tom recently on AirAmericaRadio describe his book and I remember him from the 1968 Dem. Nat'l Convention .... his "attitude" hasn't really changed over time. But, I have changed and I'm leery of people like Tom who believe they're right all the time/say they believe in people like Obama but say they're going to lose. What kind of thinking/believing is that? If I was Obama, I wouldn't want somone on my team like Tom Hayden. I no longer trust people like him. I think it was MIchelle Obama who said, Barack wanted a V-P who he could trust completely, which eliminated (splg) Hillary. Is Tom Hayden a trustworthy person for the Obama team? Or, it could be the way the article was written and not the way Tom Hayden intended his words to be read. But, his attitude is still one of rightousne­ss.(splg).

Peace

[CassandraPriam]

I for one am not going to second guess Obama.

He has not make a mistake yet, and has handled
his campaign brilliantly.

[ByersL]

Dems have to unite here. We need to slam the choice of Palin who will probably sink herself, but let's help. I am a working mother of 3 and a feminist, but I understand, unlike Cokie's generation, that we can't have it all. We make choices. If you choose to have five kids, great. But then maybe you don't take the 24-7 job because you have an ego the size of Alaska. You are pro-life and have, at 44, a disabled child, great. But then don't choose to run for the second highest office in the land when the baby is only 4 months old, just because with modern technology you can run around with a breast pump. You can run in four years, you are young. We make judgements all the time, and sometimes we can't be first. I made that choice, and am satisfied. The kids in therapy these days are those with parents with blackberrys (I have one!) who are more interested in their jobs than their kids. These are our values, our Democratic values, too. Don't let the right get away with stealing this from us!

[hypnotoad72]

"It's the economy."

That's the only thing I keep hearing about.

[PhoenixWmn]

Hey Rango----let me introduce you:

Pot...this is Kettle....

:)

[snesich]

Hayden isn't thinking here. I have great respect for Hayden, but he's flawed in many ways too. (Who would cheat on Jane Fonda---a dream spouse---with some Dukakis campaign worker?) Hayden is also too unaware or naive about how expectations make a difference.

There is a significant slice of the electorate, consciously or unconsciously, that is influenced heavily by wanting to be with "the winner", whether it be sports or politics. Everyone wants to say "I voted for the winner!" the day after the election. "MY team won!"

You'll see this with kids---they're obsessed with who is winning, who is losing, who won, who lost?

If people get the idea that one candidate is going to win, then this momentum will build on itself. It works in reverse too. Part of a winning strategy, in any campaign, is to stress that "we are the winning campaign". This makes people WANT to get on board and support you. Nobody wants to be with a "loser".

So Hayden is hurting Barack Obama, and lowering the odds that he'll win, by saying he expects him to lose. Do you hear any Republicans, in public, saying they expect McCain to lose? Of course not. They know better.

A lot of Democrats and progressives have this problem: they would rather be proven "correct" than things improve and they get proven "wrong".

Hayden's words only lessen the possibility of a new beginning for all of us this year. I wish he understood this.

[mebble]

Well we're all on the edges of our seats waiting for Mr. Hayden's wise prognostications. O where have you been, Tom? Thank goodness you're back to set us all right. If only YOU had run for president.

[WildFancyLady]

History will remember George W. Bush oh yes! Its true we never will forget all the death and destruction brought to our world during his eight years in office. We will never forget the suffering he subjected to so many people that its hard to count just how many. We will never forget the tragedy's that could have been prevented had we had a competent leader in the white house. We will never forget all the scandals perpetrated by every department within his Administration and we will never forget the worst President and Vice President in our 232 year history of our young country. We will never forget that it takes more to qualify for the office of President then "Someone you could have a beer with or someone who can clear brush from his land". Yes he has shamed us good all over the world and he deserves to be Impeached more so the any other President in history. So here is my plea to all who will cast their votes on 11/04/08..­..

[RoseBlue]

Given that the race has been so long and the conventions scheduled so late, the expected convention bounce just didn't happen this time. I don't think it will with McCain either. If there is any shift in the numbers, I think it will happen as a result of the debates. What Obama needs to do is anger McCain. He fumbles very badly in a zone of discomfort.

[MaeScott]

What do you mean? Seen the polls lately?

[bonnetteblj]

Tom Hayden sayes he is for Obama and then proceeds to say Obama will not win....he sounds
like a Republican!! Obama/Biden will be elected, because our country cannot stand another
4-8 years of this Republican rule. Our economy is in the dumps, jobs being shipped overseas,
millions of Americans can't afford healthcare, our deficit is growing by the billions everyday we
are in Iraq, Social Security needs to be stabilized­....an the list goes on. This economy and the
gas prices are hitting Americans hard. In addition, many are being laid off and cannot find
other jobs. McCain wants to privitize Social Security which will jeopardize benefits for older and disabled people who are currently on this program. Older people need to wake up and vote
for Obama. I have family who is older and say they will not vote for Obama because he is black.
This is ridiculous and they will vote for McCain who will take their benefits away!!!

We are in an election cycle now...the American public has NOT voted yet and people who
SAY they support Obama like Tom Hayden need to just get off the bandwagon as they do more
harm than good. We don't need him to win!!!

[Jaime47]

I couldn't disagree more. The Democrats need people to remind us just how close this race is. They need to pursue as many attacks of substance about McCain as as possible. So-called "attack" ads are by nature subjective, and in the eye of the beholder. They are only a problem when they are untrue or undignified. The 'seven houses' attack is a perfect example of an informative ad that truly demonstrates something negative about McCain. It is very different from 'his wife is a recovering drug addict and criminal'.

The Democrats must do everything possible (that is above-board) to battle the 501c groups, but also, perhaps more importantly, they must compensate for the inevitable 'Bradley Effect". The blogs I read during the primaries reminded me that racism is still incredibly widespread in our country, even among Democrats. There WILL BE many who enter the voting booth who simply will not be able to pull the lever for a black man. This phenomenon is not reflected in the polls.

Obama needs to continue to aggressively articulate to America who he is and what his policies and plans are. When people have doubts about anything, they tend to act conservatively; which is to say, the less people know about Obama, the less likely they will be to vote for him.

We should thank Tom Hayden for reminding us of these very real obstacles to an Obama victory, and should be motivated to work that much harder to ensure his election.

[Jayne Lyn Stahl - Huffpost Blogger]

While no one would dispute the fact that Tom Hayden is extraordinarily bright, and his take is right a huge percent of the time, he's clearly not psychic. Instead of spinning his comments, I'd interpret what he says as a precautionary note to Barack, and his campaign staff, so that they can avoid the pitfalls of other Democratic bids that ended badly.

Tom Hayden, like many of us, has no investment in seeing Obama lose. Although I wasn't there, it would seem to me that he's not opting for a third party solution, but active problem-solving instead.

[happypup]

I am in complete agreement!

[Dayahka]

As a senior citizen I have to say that I cannot support McCain. I come from a long-lived family and am in great health, but though I am younger than McCain I would have no ability to be president--the stress, the controversies, the decisions would be a bit too much. But Hayden may be right about this election. Certainly, the last two elections were won on the basis of fraud and fear, and McCain has shown in the last two months that he "gets it," he gets it that truth and rational discussion don't persuade the American people, who are gluttons for slogans and simplistic answers to everything. Anyone who told the people the truth--that their oil-based consumption civilization is toast--would never be elected. So the sheep will elect the pied piper of oil-drilling and America and hypocritical Christianity. Only the real rulers of the country--the rich--can step in and change this outcome, but they will not, preferring the status quo.

[GrainOSand]

I continue to call for peaceful revolution. Your analysis rings very true. We are not hungry enough yet, we are not feeling the pain to the degree that revolution will occur naturally. This is why a McCain victory for me is considered a good thing. It will usher in revolution.

Revolution in: Education, community, family cohesion, American politics, and the American idea as represented on Main Street and Wall Street.

Americas will wake up to the harsh reality that divided we fall and that the power brokers care not about race only about how they can use it to stay in power.

Peaceful, loud, and sustained protests, work stoppages, hunger strikes, sit-ins, walkouts, and boycotts, all of this and more will be part of the revolutionary times. John McCain is the straw the camel has been waiting for.

[ConcernedAboutRFuture]

Both of your posts are excellent! Thanks for such insightful input.

[frankm]

McCain being the straw that breaks the camel's back is a scary thought.

[Jaime47]

Horse hockey. George W. Bush broke the camel's back a long time ago.

[kellyihu]

An old man endorsing an OLDER Man, how sweet, Old people have to stick together!!!!!

[Eoin45]

What ageist garbage! You call yourself a progressive. You ought to be ashamed of yourself. First of all you don't read well. Hayden never endorsed McCain. He's working for Obama. He said McCain will win. That's not an endorsement. Learn to read. Being a so-called old person at 63 myself, your 'OLD people have to stick together' comment was condescending and insulting. For your information old people are no more a monlithic block than the young are. Show some respect.

[GrainOSand]

Take heart Eoin45:

The way they successfully divide us it is no wonder any can still see benefits in unity.

Young - Old
Black - White
Female - Male
Rich - Poor
Conservative - Liberal
North - South
East - West
This side of the track - Other side of the Tracks
Down in the valley - Up on the hill
Stupid - Intelligent (this distinction is the only one of substance)

The truth is old is as you feel and as you think. Sure bodies get old and die but spirits are eternal -- thus we get a song like young at heart. I have heard it put this way concerning longevity -- No one lives longer than a dead child.

I have pondered the meaning of that statement for years and I have an opinion of what it means but it is not for me to say, but for each to arrive at on their own, through honest and deep reflection.