DENVER -- Speaking at a luncheon hosted by the Denver Press Club at the Denver Athletic Club today, former California state legislator and '60s political activist Tom Hayden predicted that Barack Obama will lose the 2008 Election. "An African-American candidate talking about economics and a white war hero -- it's clear to me who is going to win," Hayden said. When one of the attendees at the small luncheon, attended mostly by Denverites, asked him to be more specific about why he thinks Obama will lose the race, Hayden replied, "You don't think McCain's gonna have a convention about his being an American." Hayden seemed to be referring to the fact that Barack Obama continues to introduce himself to the American electorate. Hayden elaborated. "I've known kookie Cokie, kookie Cokie Roberts for years, but when Obama vacationed in Hawaii, she said, "He shoulda gone to Myrtle Beach." Hayden turned out his hands, as if to say what're you gonna do?
Hayden went further. "[Obama's] problem is that he's lived in the world of beating the Democratic establishment for so long, it's hard to transition to being the Democratic establishment." Hayden is part of the group Progressives for Obama, but he has his issues with the candidate. "There's the pursuit of the last white man standing in Pennsylvania," he said, rather than a fierce pursuit of the Latino vote, which is what Hayden would like to see.
Given Hayden's history of confrontation with the police, famously at the Chicago Democratic Convention in 1968, perhaps it's not surprising that Hayden has a generally dark view. Much of his talk, which was advertised as an introduction to his new book A Tom Hayden Reader, centered on the police presence at the convention in Denver. Since the 1999 Seattle protests against the WTO, Hayden said that there has been "a continuous police build-up that concerns me since then." The brother of an old friend who lives on Denver's 16th Street Mall told Hayden that "he had never seen anything like it before"--that the police presence there is overwhelming, intimidating and edgy.
Apparently, the police have said that they have hundreds of weapons stored next to the mall, and that they bring them out every night and return them to their secret cache in the morning. Or anyway that's what the brother has confided to Tom Hayden. "All these horses on the mall -- it's like St. Petersburg 1905," Hayden said. The Denver Police Department has received $50 million from the Department of Homeland Security, according to Hayden. What concerns him is not only the massive police presence at the convention (the cop who spilled the beans about the weapons cache is convinced that something is going to happen here) but also the newly purchased technology, which will be used "in the barrio" long after the Democrats are gone. When Hayden says that the police create "an imaginary argument with your mind and with your nervous system," he almost seems to have made the point.
There's no need for so many police in Denver, Hayden says. "With Obama having opposed the war, there's no real reason for demonstrations." Hayden also feels that the "radicals of the 60s don't get credit for what has happened for good in the Democratic Party." He thinks there's too much harkening back to 1968. "All this talk about '68 because we have a fascination with round numbers," he quips. "Our country is full of the wreckage of the 60s."
Hayden observes that "there is a new social movement on a vast scale" centered right now in the Obama Campaign. "These young people will plant seeds for the next twenty-five years." But they are "small-d" Democrats, Hayden says, and they are environmentalists and idealists. "They don't want a war in :Pakistan!" And "if Obama loses, which I think he might," Hayden says, nevertheless the Democratic Party will have grown bigger. As for Obama, "he is losing. He is gonna lose the electoral college."
Hayden does offer a taste of Obama hope. "He gets one more chance to reboot, re-orient, redeploy." He offers the example of the Obama ad campaign on the McCain houses as a primer on how rebooting works these days. According to Hayden, some young investigators financed by Brave New Films in Los Angeles went to Arizona and filmed all the McCain homes and put the video on Youtube. Although the video went viral, nothing happened politically until a reporter from Politico saw it and then had a chance to ask John McCain himself the now-famous number question. Only then, Hayden reminded us, did the Obama team jump on. "Outsiders triggering situations -- that's the only way to win."
For more Huffington Post coverage from the Democratic National Convention, visit our Politics @ the DNC page, our Democratic Convention Big News Page, and our HuffPost bloggers' Twitter feed, live from Denver.
Every person that mailed in $1 is going to vote for Obama.
Every person that is newly registered is going to vote for Obama.
And none of the pols - and i mean none of them cause they can't - have poled
those voters that only have cell phones - WHICH IS A HELL OF A LOT OF YOUNG FIRST
TIME VOTERS.
My biggest worry is not about who's going to turn out - i think its going to be the highest
election turn out in the history of our country - its who is doing the COUNTING!
remembering 2000......................
Peace
He has not make a mistake yet, and has handled
his campaign brilliantly.
That's the only thing I keep hearing about.
Pot...this is Kettle....
:)
There is a significant slice of the electorate, consciously or unconsciously, that is influenced heavily by wanting to be with "the winner", whether it be sports or politics. Everyone wants to say "I voted for the winner!" the day after the election. "MY team won!"
You'll see this with kids---they're obsessed with who is winning, who is losing, who won, who lost?
If people get the idea that one candidate is going to win, then this momentum will build on itself. It works in reverse too. Part of a winning strategy, in any campaign, is to stress that "we are the winning campaign". This makes people WANT to get on board and support you. Nobody wants to be with a "loser".
So Hayden is hurting Barack Obama, and lowering the odds that he'll win, by saying he expects him to lose. Do you hear any Republicans, in public, saying they expect McCain to lose? Of course not. They know better.
A lot of Democrats and progressives have this problem: they would rather be proven "correct" than things improve and they get proven "wrong".
Hayden's words only lessen the possibility of a new beginning for all of us this year. I wish he understood this.
like a Republican!! Obama/Biden will be elected, because our country cannot stand another
4-8 years of this Republican rule. Our economy is in the dumps, jobs being shipped overseas,
millions of Americans can't afford healthcare, our deficit is growing by the billions everyday we
are in Iraq, Social Security needs to be stabilized....an the list goes on. This economy and the
gas prices are hitting Americans hard. In addition, many are being laid off and cannot find
other jobs. McCain wants to privitize Social Security which will jeopardize benefits for older and disabled people who are currently on this program. Older people need to wake up and vote
for Obama. I have family who is older and say they will not vote for Obama because he is black.
This is ridiculous and they will vote for McCain who will take their benefits away!!!
We are in an election cycle now...the American public has NOT voted yet and people who
SAY they support Obama like Tom Hayden need to just get off the bandwagon as they do more
harm than good. We don't need him to win!!!
The Democrats must do everything possible (that is above-board) to battle the 501c groups, but also, perhaps more importantly, they must compensate for the inevitable 'Bradley Effect". The blogs I read during the primaries reminded me that racism is still incredibly widespread in our country, even among Democrats. There WILL BE many who enter the voting booth who simply will not be able to pull the lever for a black man. This phenomenon is not reflected in the polls.
Obama needs to continue to aggressively articulate to America who he is and what his policies and plans are. When people have doubts about anything, they tend to act conservatively; which is to say, the less people know about Obama, the less likely they will be to vote for him.
We should thank Tom Hayden for reminding us of these very real obstacles to an Obama victory, and should be motivated to work that much harder to ensure his election.
Tom Hayden, like many of us, has no investment in seeing Obama lose. Although I wasn't there, it would seem to me that he's not opting for a third party solution, but active problem-solving instead.
Revolution in: Education, community, family cohesion, American politics, and the American idea as represented on Main Street and Wall Street.
Americas will wake up to the harsh reality that divided we fall and that the power brokers care not about race only about how they can use it to stay in power.
Peaceful, loud, and sustained protests, work stoppages, hunger strikes, sit-ins, walkouts, and boycotts, all of this and more will be part of the revolutionary times. John McCain is the straw the camel has been waiting for.
The way they successfully divide us it is no wonder any can still see benefits in unity.
Young - Old
Black - White
Female - Male
Rich - Poor
Conservative - Liberal
North - South
East - West
This side of the track - Other side of the Tracks
Down in the valley - Up on the hill
Stupid - Intelligent (this distinction is the only one of substance)
The truth is old is as you feel and as you think. Sure bodies get old and die but spirits are eternal -- thus we get a song like young at heart. I have heard it put this way concerning longevity -- No one lives longer than a dead child.
I have pondered the meaning of that statement for years and I have an opinion of what it means but it is not for me to say, but for each to arrive at on their own, through honest and deep reflection.