August is the Cruelest Month for Democrats

August always marks the launch of tornado season, and today is especially poignant for it is the anniversary of the single most deplorable act in world history: the genocidal bombing of Hirsoshima -- an event that incinerated over 100,000 people in one atomic instant. Ominously August is the month when Democratic candidates traditionally meet their doom in a wasteland of presidential dreams.

It was August, 1968 when Mayor Richard Daley ordered the police to beat the Yippies in the streets of Chicago. Five hundred civilian casualties resulted, and Abraham Ribicoff addressed the Democratic National Convention to condemn Mayor Daley for his "Gestapo tactics." The Humphrey campaign dropped precipitously in the polls but valiantly fought back to a photo-finish with Nixon who barely eclipsed his rival in the sordid precincts of Daley's Chicago where the election was finally decided.

On August 1,1972 Thomas Eagleton withdrew from the Democratic ticket following embarrassing revelations about his medical history that included electroshock therapy.

In August 1984, rumors began to circulate about the unsavory business dealings of Geraldine Ferraro's husband, John Zaccaro, that destroyed her credibility and led to a massive Democratic defeat in the Reagan landslide.

In August 1988, George Bush, Sr.'s campaign launched the notorious "Willie Horton" TV spot that demonized Michael Dukakis who behaved like a deer caught in the headlights and failed to respond to the unscrupulous attack that drenched of racism.

In August 2004 the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth launched their scurrilous attack on John Kerry reversing the polarity of the election in one dreadful week when Robert Shrum vetoed any response while awaiting polling data that delayed the rebuttal for two tortuous weeks.

In August 2008 the Republican attack machine is zeroing in on Barack Obama with their brazen plan to finish him off this month by destroying his standing in the polls. This August the Republican method for executing another Democratic challenger will be a textbook political dissection. Karl Rove and his acolyte Steve Schmidt who is currently directing McCain's strategy unit have elevated character assassination to an art form.

At this point, the Republican attack on Obama appears to be working. Over the past eight weeks, Obama has dropped from a commanding double-digit lead to a dead even horse race that is now within the margin of error - or worse. If the campaign continues on this course, McCain will command a large lead by Labor Day.

However, the news is not all bad for there is still time aplenty for Obama to change the course of history and turn the tables on McCain. But the stakes are high and bound to go much higher next month when a flotilla of Republican 527s will launch simultaneous attacks on Obama from emails to websites to TV spots to a full length documentary designed to redefine his campaign as a dangerous cult of personality -- a mere fabrication of the mainstream media -- a puff of smoke -- a cavalcade of hype -- a particle of trivia -- nothing more, nothing less. In the Republican master plan, Obama's political demise will be a Pre-Columbian sacrifice by ritual mutilation -- a death by one thousand cuts inflicted via flickering images flashed across screens in our palms, our living rooms and our offices.

Barack Obama is on a remarkable journey. On his journey, he has to make a crucial decision. In the game of presidential chess, Obama must decide who shall become his Vice Presidential running mate -- a person capable of steering the ship of state should presidential succession take place during his term of office.

The Democratic National Convention convenes in two and a half weeks. Since the Olympics begin on Friday, there is little time for either Obama or McCain to make the selection of their Vice Presidential running mates public without the overbearing distraction of the Beijing Olympics.

Both candidates have deployed starkly different searches for their potential successors. McCain has openly considered a group of Republican hopefuls from Charlie Crist and Bobby Jindal and Mitt Romney.

Obama has observed the traditional ritual in his own way that is remarkable for its silence and mystifying in its obscurity. Word has leaked out that a few grandees are being vetted including: Evan Bayh, Joseph Biden, Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius. While Hillary Clinton was being seriously considered, official word came last week that she would not be the nominee.

While each of these people have their merits, the most important characteristic for each of them is their strategic viability -- their unique abilities to help McCain or Obama win the election.

In a little studied and very under-reported poll by John Zogby, we learned that there is a very interesting method for determining the strategic viability of each of the Vice Presidential hopefuls.

On the Republican side in Zogby's poll, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were virtually tied as capable of helping John McCain win the November election. For months the smart money has been on Romney for a constellation of reasons: personal rapport with McCain plus his immense personal wealth and his acceptance by the Bush Dynasty -- still the royal factor in the GOP.

But Zogby's results for the Democrats were much more interesting. While Hillary Clinton led the other Democrats, she brought the largest dollop of negatives to the ticket, in effect canceling out her positive impact. Bill Richardson had the same problem, while Joe Biden's negatives more than cancelled out his benefit to Obama. The results for Sebellius, Bayh and Kaine were just as depressing. They brought more negatives than positives to the ticket.

One person towered over the field of potential running mates for Obama, but he presents a mysterious paradox. Colin Powell was overwhelmingly the most popular potential Vice Presidential running mate for Barack Obama. Powell was the only candidate that would bring a net gain of circa thirty per cent to the Democratic ticket. A shift of this magnitude would cover the electoral map in a much deeper shade of blue and transform several states including: Virginia; North Carolina; South Carolina; Georgia; Colorado and New Mexico from red to blue.

The fact that Powell has been a Republican for the past decade or so is actually quite trivial. Powell is as apolitical as an American of his stature can be. A military commander tested in wartime, a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, a Secretary of State -- Powell strengthens Obama's candidacy more deeply and more consummately than any other American. If he were to select Powell, Obama would reinforce public confidence in his role as a unifier, a uniter, a unique presidential candidate capable of redefining American politics at a critical juncture in world history.

Over the past two months Powell has made it known that he is now counseling Obama. That tantalizing fact suggests that -- at the very least -- Powell will endorse Obama in what would be a devastating reversal of fortune for McCain. Powell's role as counselor opens the door to his potential role as Vice President.

August is the cruelest month for Democratic tickets, but Obama has the opportunity to reverse the polarity of a troubled nation and to inaugurate a new era of world history. Whether Obama will select Colin Powell or Evan Bayh or Joseph Biden could seal the fate of his rivals or liberate them to follow their tried and trusted formula of August demolitions followed by September desecrations and the surprising events that are bound to come in October.

In one fell swoop, Obama could press the button and change the course of history. Perhaps that is why he has so conscientiously shielded his vice presidential contemplations from the gaze of his staff, his confidants, his loyalists.

Time will eventually tell what the thunder said.

Follow Michael Carmichael on Twitter: www.twitter.com/alchemistoxford

Comments

[SaintJimmy]

Colin "Sellout" Powell? Are you out of your mind? That would KILL Obama in the fall.

Better to take a shot on Clark, who would more than adequately bring most of the same advantages to Obama's campaign that Powell would, without turning off Democrats.

[bogues]

This is an interesting article, but it makes me a little suspicious, why spend so much time shooting all of Obama's choices out of the water and skip over what McCain's picks may or may not bring to his ticket. Surely it is not suggesting that Obama has no choice but to pick Powell. I personally think Powell would be brilliant, but don't suggest he is the only good choice.

[nuglet304]

i'd rather have colin powell as president.

[condawg]

Sure and he could even call himself a Democrat!

[Heythatsmybike]

"...the single most deplorable act in world history: the genocidal bombing of Hirsoshima"

It's because of those bombs that we still read in english...

[nuglet304]

way to grasp the point of the article.

[PatrickforO]

Yeah, my dad was in the Phillipines under McArthur, and all those guys were anticipating 500,000 US casualties if we invaded mainland Japan. Millions of Japanese would also have died, because under the Samurai code of Bushido, they were going to fight to the last man, woman and child. I saw an article that toted up the number of dead in WWII as over 50 million. It was time to end that war, we had the chance and Truman took it, saving the lives of a lot of dads and grandads on both sides. I'm not saying by any means we should ever use nukes again, but in that case it might have saved a lot of lives. I know my dad was always grateful to Truman, because he'd have gone in with the rest and maybe been killed.

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Here is a quotation from Jewish Peace News:

The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was a criminal act on an epic scale. It was premeditated mass murder that unleashed a weapon of intrinsic criminality. For this reason its apologists have sought refuge in the mythology of the ultimate “good war”, whose “ethical bath”, as Richard Drayton called it, has allowed the west not only to expiate its bloody imperial past but to promote 60 years of rapacious war, always beneath the shadow of The Bomb. The most enduring lie is that the atomic bomb was dropped to end the war in the Pacific and save lives. “Even without the atomic bombing attacks,” concluded the United States Strategic Bombing Survey of 1946, “air supremacy over Japan could have exerted sufficient pressure to bring about unconditional surrender and obviate the need for invasion. Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts, and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey’s opinion that ... Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplat­ed.”

[MalleusMaleficarum]

If Powell did join Obama -- either as VP or as an endorser -- it would blast McCain to kingdom come.

[laylahb]

Powell won't do it, for a variety of personal reasons.

Obama needs a good attack dog. The candidates on this list do not fit the bill, with the exception of Hillary Clinton. I doubt that would happen in our lifetime. The others on the list are just "Mr Nice Guys/ Ms Nice Girls" and would fall down in an instant.

Someone like a Wes Clark, with the guts to attack and stand his ground would work, as would a Dem who doesn't cower (if one exists).

[Terriac]

Interesting post. I do get so discouraged whenever I see the words "Republican attack machine," even though I know it exists and is a monster to be feared. You never hear "Democrat attack machine." I think the reason is simple. Democrats are, generally, more decent people when it comes to these things. (Oh, I can hear the cries of outrage from Republicans even as I write this. And it's not a blanket statement, but I feel it is true, neverthele­ss.) Unfortunately, sometimes the nice guys do finish last. I just think it's a sad commentary on our society that with each election, the party that runs the most low-brow, dirty campaign wins. I hope that America is ready to say "Enough. That's not how we want to pick our leader." The most important job on earth, and we decide it based on thuggery. That's truly depressing. And it just proves that the Republicans don't feel they can win unless they employ these god-awful tactics. That speaks volumes. Hopefully Obama will find an effective way to fight back. It's just sad that that's where the candidates have to put their energies. I'm getting really tired of it all.

[fairwitness]

And how, exactly, will Powell induce the necessary amnesia in voters who might remember his rather criminally­-conspirat­orial performance at the UN selling a bogus war? Is your arguement simply that polls should drive policy or that "Politics-As-Usual" should be embraced as the only way to win?

To select a Republican war-man who was willing to make a knowingly fraudulent case and ensure thousands of US deaths and tens of thousand iraqi deaths, not to mention hundreds of thousands of casualities and millions displaced--well what "help" would such a man be to healing and renewing America, hmmmm?

[allonfla]

It surprises me that Colin Powell, another black man, would rate so much higher. His qualifications are outstanding and if I had to choose I would pick him also - but I guess I lack faith that Americans would be okay with two Blacks on the ticket. In addition, Colin Powell, would have a lot of apologizing and explaining to do about his role in the Iraq War.

Let's wait and see.

[mikeant50]

Many Democrats can't take a Black Man as our nominee. Look at the Clinton supporters.

[washington31]

Powell sounds like a good idea, but I don't think the American (some whites in particular) can handle two AA running the country. With the GOP running race inflamed ads this can cause the dems to lose this year....