Huffpost Politics
The Blog

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors

Michael Fauntroy Headshot

Is it Already Over for Obama?

Posted: Updated:

The emerging consensus appears to be that Senator Hilary Clinton has all but locked up the Democratic presidential nomination. That appears premature when one examines the fundraising numbers where Senator Barack Obama has led for most of the year and now just barely trails Clinton. The fundraising totals would suggest that the race is close. The state-by-state polls, however, tell a different story, one that will depress Obama supporters. After looking at the polls, one can only conclude that barring some enormous collapse by Clinton, the race is already over.

Clinton's surge, no pun intended, coincides with her increase in black support. Her lead in national polls ranges from 27 to 32 points, sizable by any measure. While the state-by-state polls mean more, she is steadily closing in on the nomination. Twenty-nine polls, mostly of likely voters, have been taken in the last month in the first nine primary/caucus states. Not one shows Obama leading and only four have him within single digits and they are all in Iowa where Clinton averages a +5 point lead. Clinton has substantial, landslide-like average leads in each state: +20% in New Hampshire; +13 in South Carolina; +27 in Florida; +27 in Nevada; +19 in Michigan; +25 in California; +22 in Pennsylvania; and +25 in New Jersey.

Obama's team argues that these polls are meaningless and that his support levels is actually undercounted. That may be true, but these polls show that even with an undercount, Obama has a lot of work to do.