The conventional wisdom was simple: Senator Barack Obama would trounce his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination in the Black community. His youth, vitality, and freshness, coupled with his call for greater unity in the nation, suggests he has a legitimate chance to win, thereby energizing Black voters in a way unseen since Jesse Jackson's 1988 campaign for the nomination. This view, coupled with his phenomenal fundraising and stubborn ambivalence about Senator Hilary Clinton's electability gave many hope that Blacks would flood ballot boxes across the country and push him over the top.
The reality, however, is beginning to set in and it's not pretty: Obama is beginning to look more like Howard Dean in 2003 rather than the rock star politician with the promise to remake American politics. Yes, he's doing very well in the polls and has raised a ridiculous amount of money; his third-quarter 2007 total was $78.9 million. However, the emerging reality is that he won't win the nomination next year. The phenomenon of 2007 likely won't win the prize in 2008.
And he can't count on Black America to lead him to the nomination.
A recently released CNN poll shows that Obama is not being supported by Black America. Indeed, Obama's support among Black Democrats, never what many hoped for, is actually in decline. Thirty-three percent of Black Democrats indicated their support for Obama in the poll, a three point decline from a similar poll in April.
While the poll had a slightly higher than usual margin for error, the numbers tell an unfortunate truth for Obama: Black women aren't giving him the love. Only 25 percent of Black Democratic women polled indicated they would vote for Obama; 46 percent of Black Democratic men concur. He's trending downward at the same time his primary challenger for the nomination, Clinton, is beginning to take off with Blacks. The same poll showed Clinton favored by 57 percent of Blacks polled. Particularly notable is the support she is receiving among Black women: a whopping 68 percent are going with Clinton.
There are a number of reasons why Black America hasn't warmed to Obama, but two warrant particular attention. First, there is a worrisome concern that has been circulating among Black activists and politicos since his campaign launch that he has few, if any, African Americans in positions of authority in his campaign. His team, led by Chicago-based consultant David Axelrod, doesn't have a Donna Brazile-like leader whom Black America can see and embrace. Further, the campaign strategy, to this point, has led some African Americans to scratch their heads in disbelief that Obama isn't engaging the Black community to the extent that he should. He doesn't have to spend a disproportionate amount of time courting Black voters, but he does have to do more than he has.
Second, he's shown no proclivity to speak forcefully on issues of unique importance to Black America. His relative silence on Jena 6 was duly noted by Black activists. His conservative, de-racialized approach to campaigning is understandable -- he doesn't want to run the risk of alienating White supporters who might recoil from forceful discussions of racial issues. It's clear that he isn't inspiring the volume of loyalty from Blacks necessary to fuel his candidacy. That's unfortunate because, his base, Black America, is craving for leadership and his silence and stylistic conservatism may be disappointing to many Black voters.
Black America too often holds Black candidates to an unfair standard of racial solidarity and purity. Most African Americans want identifiable, overt Blackness in their Black candidates. That is, of course, a recipe for electoral failure in statewide and national contests and Black Americans are slowing and grudgingly coming to grips with this political reality. They want Obama to be "blacker," but he can only be as "Black" as Whites will allow him to be. Whites want to support Black candidates, but only those they see as "safe." Black candidates deemed "scary" may have the same political positions as Obama, but can't come close to a nomination. Obama's dilemma in this regard is clear, but he has to figure it out very soon or he will be spending the early spring of 2008 putting salve on his ego, wondering what happened, and preparing to endorse Hillary Clinton for President.
Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of the recently published book Republicans and the Black Vote.
Follow Michael Fauntroy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/MikeFauntroy
MAGLATINAVI@AOL.COM
He is not black......
He is not patriotic
He is not Christian
He is not liberal read (anti-gay)
It is unbelievable..............
He can’t be real so he must be impersonating:
He is really white....... even though he seem very convincing as a black man
He is realy ant-America ........even though he seem to care allot about America
He is really a Muslim.............even though he has being a member of a Christian church for the past 15 years.
Obama is a manifested impossibility, that is slowly being deconstructed to find his tribal allegiance. The idea of America is dead what is left is a republican tribe and a liberal tribe , black tribe and a white tribe, Christian tribe and a non Christian tribe.
Obama seem to be the threads that hold these patches together, when the general believe is that we cannot be united.
a. Obama has fought and won death penalty (not a political winner with most voters)reform, which disproportionately affects black people -- and young black men.
b. He has spoken out against Jena 6 -- the first candidate of either party to do so
c. He is currently calling for a Department of Justice official to get fired over making racially inflammatory remarks against black Americans, particularly the elderly
d. He passed racial profiling legislation establishing videotaping of confessions (also not a political winner on either side).
e. He has advocated giving college students a $4,000 credit for tuition -- which will help poor and young black Americans.
f. He has spoken out against misogyny in Rap music against black women and called for it to stop.
the list goes on............
1. Basing your facts on an opinion poll, a national one at that (when the election is done state by state), that is suspect due to its Clinton-supporting ownership. Where are the other polls? And even if you cited other polls do they even matter at this stage? Yes, they are beginning to matter more and more as we approach the ACTUAL voting but most of America, to include much of "Black America", has been too busy working two jobs and taking care of their kids to pay attention to what folk like you, or for that matter, the candidates are saying.
I prefer to look at history (things that have ACTUALLY occurred vs. conjecture which is all that polls are, especially regarding "Black America"s vote - a vote that is notoriously difficult to predict). History, in the form of the Senate primary vote in Illinois showed that after initial reservations the African-American vote "came around" to Obama once they learned more about him, what he stood for, and what he has done with his life.
2. What is "Black America"?. Never really been able to figure that one out. What does it take to establish what "Black America" is? Is it when 51% of that community supports a particular issue? Is it 70%? 90%?
3. The last paragraph basically states that Obama is in a catch 22. So he's screwed, damned if he do, damned if he don't (be "black" vs "white"). So if one follows your conclusions based on this, the whole article really even shouldn't be about Obama. It should be about your thesis that a Black American cannot win an election. Is that what you believe, or is that what you believe about Obama? Which is it?
While Bill Clinton was president, he was far from the centrist politician he claimed to be, many of his trade policies were straight out of the Republican handbook and he steadfastly appointed conservative Republican judges to the federal judiciary, as an african-american man, that doesn't sound like he's any friend of mine.
Oh, let's not forget how he threw Lani Quiner under the bus when white folks started complaining about her actually enforcing civil rights legislation. It's statements like,"Bill Clinton was our first black president," that leads white america to believe black folks are stupid and uninformed. Was he the first black president because he donned a pair of shades and played jazz on the saxophone, because he certainly didn't do one damned thing to make our plight in America any easier. By the way, I'm sure as hell not going to vote for his two-faced wife. Wake up black folks and discern beyond the superficial. It's not about what you say, it's about what you do, and Bill Clinton didn't do sh**.
That's part of the problem right there. Since Vinod Gupta is a notable Clinton supporter and it is his company that does the polling for CNN, anything they say about Barack Obama should be taken with several grains of salt.
Bill Clinton is generally well-regarded in the black community, ("first black President" and all that nonsense) so that is the main problem Barack Obama needs to overcome in terms of the polling numbers.
Obama won the black vote handily in his US Senate primary in Illinois and there is little reason to think it will play out any differently this election. Like most of the electorate, the more they get to know Barack, the more supportive of him they will get.
Barack Obama is the Superior Choice
for African-American Voters:
http://www.jbhe.com/obama1.html