The Republican Party is a Mess

The Grand Old Party is in bad shape. From humiliating defeats in the last two national elections and its recent outburst of internecine warfare, to a new party chairman who has gotten off to a rocky (to be charitable) start to the sexist, racist response to President Barack Obama's selection of Federal Appeals Court Judge Sonia Sotomayor to succeed David Souter on the Supreme Court, and beyond, the "Party of Lincoln" is consistently showing that it is flying in the face of the future of America. The consistent, and accurate, Republican narrative is that the party is too conservative and too homogeneous to be attractive to the next generation or so of American voters. While party leaders keep trying to convince us that America is a conservative country, Republican candidates are getting their brains beat out at ballot boxes all over the country. Recent evidence shows that the GOP is simply out of touch with the rest of the country and, barring Democratic overreach, has a very long way to go to regain relevance in American politics because it's lost college graduates and minorities.

The first piece of evidence can be found in the November 2008 presidential election results. According an analysis from National Journal and the Cook Political Report, the Republicans hold on highly-educated voters has disappeared. The Republicans' rocketship ride to political dominance occurred when it was able to meld its traditional base of the upwardly mobile economic and social supporters with religious and social conservatives. The first part of that marriage could be seen in the how Republicans performed in America's 100 most-educated counties (those with the highest percentage of over-25 adults with college degrees). In 1984, Reagan carried 82 of today's 100 most educated counties. George H. W. Bush carried 64 of those counties four years later. The Republican shared of these counties has been in decline in each presidential election ever since. John McCain, the 2008 GOP standard-bearer, won just 22 of these counties. In a political whiplash-inducing shift, college educated voters, once the lynchpin of the GOP, are leaving the party in droves.

The second piece of evidence is perhaps more devastating to the GOP. According to the Census Bureau, the United States will be a "majority-minority" country by 2042. One would think, given this reality, that the GOP would redouble its minority outreach efforts in an effort to have access to the votes of the future majority of the country. Quite to the contrary, the GOP appears to be pushing minorities out of the Party. And a recently released Gallup Poll confirms the suspicion that the Party is getting whiter while the Democrats, Independents, and the rest of the country are not. According to the poll, 89 percent of Republican voters are white, and that 63% of White Republicans identify as conservatives. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Democrats are White, about half of whom describe themselves as moderate or liberal. Given Census Bureau projections, this may be all you need to know about where the GOP is heading if it doesn't get its act together.

This evidence reveals structural problems for the GOP, not the liberal media spin they have been offering since the last election. How will the party be able to raise money as before without its college educated base? Indeed, to the extent that the media play a role, it's in giving attention to people like Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh, who are only making things worse.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of Republicans and the Black Vote.

Comments

[1849]

Mr. Fauntroy, I have been reading and sometimes responding to your blogs. I must say that what I am witnessing is truly amazing. I could have sworn that I was reading the most vocal opponent of then candidate Sen. Obama. He is President Obama now and here I am reading some back pedaling. The Republicans are out of touch and I see some jumping off the Republican bandwagon in hopes to run and catch the one going in the other direction.

[dsws]

The Reagan landslide, Bush tie, and McCain rout don't provide any reason to think there won't be any donors from the counties in question. It only takes a few percent of the electorate to make an adequate donor base.

[Dale07]

I wouldn't worry about the Republican Party. You mentioned Democrat overreach. The Democrats are betting it all on the current spending. Spending that's so fast and monumental, that many Americans haven't caught up to it. With hyper inflation a real possibility, Democrats have stood alone in supporting The President as well as the Congress. It's all on the line. IF the American people don't see drastic improvement in the next two years the fall from grace will be swift. Should just one man or woman rise up in the Republican Party, someone currently not on the radar, someone who only has to plug into the middle class anger, the whole political landscape will flip. America voted and got it's first black president, that's all well and good, but the novelty will wear off. When putting food on the table becomes harder, inflation takes hold, and unemployment passes 10%, all the current Democrat control will crumble. It's actually just a matter of time.

[Huffy101]

Anybody get the RNC's latest mailing, a "Census Document" for current party members to help determine the future of the party?

Full RNC mailing and five questions for Michael Steele from the last sane Republican here:

http://iamthecarczar.blogspot.com/2009/06/five-census-document-questions-for.html

[MurrayAbraham]

There is no doubt the current GOP establishment seems to relish in mediocrity, and that is perhaps the greatest danger for Democrats.
In effect, the Dems are ridding Obama's coattails but aren't providing any real alternative to the GOP. As a consequence, the support the Dems currently have could disappear as fast as it appeared.

[KeysE2S]

Have you been paying attention to the GOP leadership? Talk about no alternative?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/03/26/1867398.aspx
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/05/20/republicans-drop-measure-labeling-democrats-socialist/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/06/cantor-bows-to-rush-this_n_197776.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/02/26/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry4831790.shtml
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/19/steele-gop-needs-hip-hop-makeover/

Seriously, its not about the optics. Its about demographics. And demographically, the right is screwed.

[Cye]

The Republicans lost professional and educated voters because for the past three decades - which were dominated by Republican rule - they got a lot of political milage out of mocking left-wing "elites" and the intelligensia. To some degreed, criticism was fair. But as the decades progressed, the pitch of attacks became so fevered that their derision began to include anybody with an education. Education itself had become suspect.

I think this trend reached its nadir under the Bush Administration (like so many other things). The Administration's flagrant disregard for evidence and facts, its politicisation or deregard for science and rationality - in favour of faith-driven policy or policy driven by 'the gut' - ended in catastrophe.

The Republican party needs to redefine its and understand that most people in society want sense and reason to guide policy, not rampant ideology and faith.

[Freesia2]

That was really interesting Professor. I love it when someone breaks it all down to the irrefutable facts.

When I watched the infamous tea parties, the coverage, I was looking at pretty much what the Republican party has come down to. And I'm sure in the mix there were a few people who think and have opinions that would fill more than a soundbyte. But I had to question even them because they were surrounded by very white, very confused people and I wondered why those few thinkers were there. Later I realized it was out of desperation.

Kind of like an African-American blogger who grew greatly offended when anyone questioned the legitimacy of those events. And I realized that more than just rationalization, I was actually listening to nostalgia. Because she'd entered, as a black woman, that very white party during the post Reagan era. As an educated woman, a sincere person, she fit the 100 counties model you listed. But those days are gone and like the people at the tea parties she defended, she doesn't seem to realize. Or can't yet.

The GOP's a mess. But they either won't or simply can't acknowledge. Because it hurts? Or because the party dumbed itself down so much that they don't even notice and the thinking people in it are too frightened to tell them? Or themselves?

[ALC]

Has anyone ever noticed that when the republicans do have the reins of power that one of the first things that they go after in their "waste cutting" is education funding? Every time. This is not accidental at all and it's an old ploy going back decades. The dilemma that they face today is that the upper income people that have bought their bill of goods for many years now are pissed off looking at their 401K's and investment portfolios and are defecting en masse. That only leaves them the ignorant, ill-educated rednecks. Mainly the section of the country from Texas to South Carolina. Oh, also check where those states rank in education nationally. An ignorant electorate has always been the GOP's best friend because the wealthy are not numerous enough to get them elected to anything.

[taikan]

The Republican Party may be a mess, but it isn't dead yet, and progressives in the Democratic Party who act as if the GOP is dead do so at their own peril. Our political system is very heavily stacked in favor of the two currently dominant parties. Unless one or more wealthy people are willing to commit upwards of $500-600 million in the aggregate to establish a third party, the GOP will continue to be the primary party in opposition to the Democrats. Over time, some ambitious people who for one reason are another do not believe they will be able to achieve political office as Democrats will move to the GOP. Together with people already in the GOP who want to get elected or want to move up to a higher office, they will force the GOP to change enough of its positions to become politically competitive.

[Fabienne]

And you know this how?

[dsws]

The most plausible route to a new major party is a split in the Democratic party, not a Perot phenomenon. A third party can help a little, either by luring away a constituency from the Republican party or by identifying and energizing a constituency that has no effective voice in either major party. We don't have a lot of previous examples, but iiuc the Whigs collapsed before the Republicans formed, and the Federalists faded away before the Whigs formed.

[AmandaRuth]

I don't think the repubs have a clue how deep in trouble they are - let me tell you a little story. A few months ago, my husband and I put up a facebook page. Yes, I know, welcome to 2005. It's not that we are technically ignorant, we just weren't interested in social networking. Anyway, we soon connected with a bunch of people we hung with "back in the day", and our friend count is around 60 or so. These were people that we were close to at various times of our lives. All of them identified themselves as either liberal or democrats. Not one choose conservative as their political leaning.
I was astonished at the amount of friends that choose the label democrat. These were the most apolitical people ever, who, back in the day, say 1985 or 1976 o rso, would rather roll in broken glass than have an issue related discussion about anything.

And not only were they proud dems now, they were very knowledgeable about issues, generally distrustful of the mainstream media (for instance the Charlie Gipson gotcha debate), and willing to do their own research via the internet. And a great number where involved in local politics. And they trust the government far far more than corporations.

I couldn't believe it. Take it or leave it, just my observations.

[M4dwoman]

The Republicans are gleefully posting about the awfulness of the Obamas going to NY on a date. At first I thought the article (on HP) was satire, but it was written in all seriousness.

[trimom]

These shifting demographics explain why the GOP is so unwilling to spend money on education or internet access. The more educated people become, the less attractive the party becomes.

[SaltySaltillo]

You know something is wrong with your party's ideas when there is a direct correlation between a voter's education level and the likelihood that the voter will NOT be a member of your party.

[ZenBastard]

It's almost as if losing the 2008 Presidential election has completely unhinged the Republican party. They now remind me of nothing more than a small child who, because they are not getting their way for the first time in 8 years, has decided that they are going to be as stubborn and obstinate as possible. It's impossible to have any kind of meaningful discourse with them because they have absolutely no interest in listening to what anyone else (non-Republican) has to say.........about ANYTHING. They have mentally switched off to such an extreme that it's almost like trying to get through to someone who is catatonic. In my 30+ years of watching politics I don't believe I've ever seen such a "disconnection" from reality by a political party as the one that is now happening with the Republican party.

[LMPE]

It's been obvious for a long time that the Grand Oil Party is a mess.