RESULTS: In one of the easiest years to predict in memory, I only got 17 out of 24. I blew it on the smaller categories where you have to shine, like the live action and animated and documentary shorts where I only got 1 out of 3 right. Oh well, there's always next year.
Ok, I won't guarantee that you'll win your office pool. My track record is spotty -- especially during years when I passionately love a movie. (Never bet on your favorite team; you never bet smart.) But I've spoken to friends in Hollywood who attend the screenings, studied the tea leaves and here are my picks for the winners, along with info on close races if you want to ignore my advice.
And when people tell you, "But it's been 60 years since a movie grossed so little money and won Best Picture" or "no movie that has been nominated for Best Director AND won Best Editing has ever...." Yep, all those trends are good to note. But Academy voters don't vote that way. They (or their sister or their assistant) vote spontaneously from their heart. Assuming they themselves aren't on the ballot.
So here's my ballot followed by my explanations where necessary and the favorite choice among other voters. Good luck!
BEST PICTURE The Hurt Locker YES!
BEST DIRECTOR Katheryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker YES!
BEST ACTOR -- Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart YES!
BEST ACTRESS -- Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side YES!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR -- Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds YES!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- Mo'Nique for Precious YES!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY -- Inglorious Basterds NO.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY -- Up In The Air NO.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE -- Up YES!
BEST FOREIGN FILM -- El Secreto De Sus Ojos YES!
BEST DOCUMENTARY -- The Cove YES!
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT -- Music By Prudence YES!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT -- Instead of Abracadabra NO.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT -- A Matter Of Loaf And Death NO.
BEST SCORE -- Up YES!
BEST SONG -- "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart YES!
BEST SOUND EDITING/SOUND MIXING/ART DIRECTION -- Avatar NO. NO. YES!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY -- The White Ribbon. NO.
BEST MAKEUP -- Star TrekYES!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN -- The Young Victoria YES!
BEST FILM EDITING -- The Hurt Locker YES!
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS -- Avatar YES!
BEST PICTURE The Hurt Locker (runner-up Avatar or could it be Inglorious Basterds or Up In The Air?) -- I'm the only one who thinks Up In The Air still has a shot but with this new ranking system where voters list all 10 movies in preference, anything goes. And whichever movie wins, people will point to that new voting twist rather than the simple fact that The Hurt Locker or Avatar or whatever was the most popular film among voters. Why do I pick Up In The Air as the dark horse? It plays very well on TV (where many voters watch the nominees), it's a film in the classic Hollywood style a la Billy Wilder and thus appeals to older voters, it stars an honest to goodness movie star and it was a strong hit (unlike Locker). Most importantly, the people who love Hurt will probably list Avatar last while those rooting for Avatar will list Hurt Locker last. And what will be second or third on all of their ballots? I'm betting it's Up In The Air and Inglorious Basterds. I don't love Hurt (it's quite good and very well directed) so I'm not passionate about this category. But since Oscar loves to frustrate me, the most annoying win would be Avatar and therefore that might just pull it off.
BEST DIRECTOR Katheryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Long overdue for the gender, of course and Bigelow has come into her own.
BEST ACTOR -- Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart. A career award, yes, but also a very good performance.
BEST ACTRESS -- Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side. The only acting category that's a close call. Meryl Streep is the dark horse here; if only her movie were better. Bullock had a career year thanks to The Proposal and then this wildly popular smash hit that she carried with some of her best acting yet. Not a great movie, but obviously they love it. (Best Picture nomination, anyone?) It's her year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR -- Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- Mo'Nique for Precious.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY -- Inglorious Basterds by Quentin Tarantino. Hollywood loved the film (it won the SAG for Best Ensemble), it was the biggest hit of his career and this is their best chance to reward him, assuming it doesn't swoop in and win Best Picture. The Hurt Locker could contend but that movie was all about the direction.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY -- Up In The Air by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. A model of adaptation, especially if you read the very different book by Walter Kirn. (By the way, notice how I name the movie first and then the people? I wish the Academy Awards would do this instead of naming people we've never heard of before finally telling us it was, say, Avatar that won Special Effects or whatever.)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE -- Up by Pixar, of course. They should have won Best Picture by now and some day they will.
BEST FOREIGN FILM -- El Secreto De Sus Ojos. The White Ribbon has won everything and Un Prophete was my favorite film of 2009, bar none. But this category is always a crazy wild card. I'm picking this film because of its heart, whereas White Ribbon is cold and austere. But most people pick White so if you want to be conservative go with that.
BEST DOCUMENTARY -- The Cove. Food Inc also pushes the buttons the Academy loves and The Most Dangerous Man in America is liberal and has a Jewish angle but The Cove is about lovable dolphins being slaughtered and is moving them to tears.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT -- Music By Prudence. I have NOT seen these shorts (I have in the other categories) so this is based solely on the subject matter. Heart-tuggers and anything on the Holocaust usually triumph. China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears Of Sichuan Province is about the shoddy school buildings in China that collapsed after an earthquake and killed so many children. It's painful. Music By Prudence also deals with adversity but with a far more upbeat way since it's about a deformed child cast out by her society but protected by her mother and ultimately proving to have a lovely, haunting singing voice that has been her salvation. See? You're tearing up already. (I'm not being flippant about the actual issues addressed in these films, just the way Academy voters respond to them.)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT -- Instead of Abracadabra. By far the best short of the five, and it's fun and sweet with a great kicker (ie. closing gag) to boot. The others are mostly grim. The New Tenants has some well-known actors (always a good pull with voters), but has awkward shifts in tone and ends poorly. Nonetheless, friends report it has played well at screenings. Still, my money is on Abracadabra.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT -- A Matter Of Loaf And Death. Nick Park of Wallace & Gromit owns this category and that isn't changing this year. French Roast is very mild. Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty is very well-animated but has one joke and no ending. The Lady And The Reaper is not bad but also has a weak kicker that spoils the modest fun. Logorama is the only contender: it has a great visual look that employs logos for an entire world, not to mention advertising characters like the Michelin Man as cops, Mr. Clean as a gay tour guide and so on. Two negatives: it's not funny when EVERY character is foul-mouthed and the short is too long and goes completely off the rails with a very confusing ending. Still, it has a cool factor and could upset. But stick with Wallace & Gromit. (Note: make sure you check out David Wallechinsky's post for more on the animated shorts, including clips and complete entries available for viewing. Then you can make up your own mind and tell me how crazy I am!)
BEST SCORE -- Up by Michael Giacchino. You can take it to the bank. He's won every award in sight and it's a glorious work that tips a hat to classic Hollywood film scores. And it's from a movie everyone loves.
BEST SONG -- "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart by Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett. Another sure shot. Bet your house on it.
BEST SOUND EDITING/SOUND MIXING/ART DIRECTION -- Avatar in a technical categories sweep.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY -- The White Ribbon. Why would this win Best Cinematography but White Ribbon not win Best Foreign Film? Because everyone can vote in this category while you have to prove you saw all five foreign films to vote for that one. The White Ribbon is in black and white (which Hollywood is a sucker for), it won the guild award and it looks absolutely stunning. Still, this is a toss-up. Avatar or The Hurt Locker could triumph. Personally, I'd root for Inglorious Basterds and the great work of Robert Richardson. If he wins, that might mean an upset in Best Picture.
BEST MAKEUP -- Star Trek by Barry Burman, Mindy Hall and Joe Harlow.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN -- The Young Victoria by Sandy Powell.
BEST FILM EDITING -- The Hurt Locker by Chris Innis and Bob Murawski. They won the guild award for this category so other editors love it the most. I'd vote for Sally Menke and her great, great work on Inglorious Basterds and if it wins that could be another sign of an upset. Obviously Avatar is also a factor here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS -- Avatar by Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones. I'd give it to District 9, which did the most with the least (and beat out 2012 to get nominated) and my favorite of the three is Star Trek but Avatar it is. Without a doubt.
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I can't wait until White Ribbon is on DVD...I'm guessing it may effect me like The Boy in the Stripped Pajamas (one of THEEE most powerful movies I've EVER EVER seen...)..
Love Jeff Bridges...
I'm most of the way through The Hurt Locker, and the male-bondi
I haven't yet seen the movie about the blue aliens, but I vote it.
He didn't see political messages in that film. He saw no undertones in Avatar. He just saw a good Sci-Fi movie.
Lighten up, enjoy a film for what it is. Watch Julie and Julia. Watch Nine. Watch Up In The Air. Those are character driven movies.
Heh, I find it amusing when Liberal (or in your case, liberalism
What if the Na'vi characters had simply said "Give me back my country!" Would that have made it a Conservati
I dare say, Conservati
I love a good foreign film, so I'll be hunting the other nominees down soon. I did see The White Ribbon and enjoyed it, although the editing to me was at times a little disjointed and confusing.
If Christoph Waltz doesn't win for Best Supporting Actor, the voting was rigged. I think Mo'Nique should win her category as well. She killed in that roll!
Health Care Reform Debate
I’m a 15-year business and e-commerce website developer. I'm certain some 'glitz' can be added to michaelgil
Might you write a book soon?
And every David Attenborou