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How Santorum Blew It

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When I wrote this in the Huffington Post last week, there was but a single presidential poll after February 7, when Santorum began his dramatic national surge in the polls after a triple victory night. Unlike the January polls in which Santorum barely registered, this poll showed a single-digit (8%) Romney margin in Arizona. Given Santorum's national surge I argued that, not only was the 8% margin credible, it was likely to diminish further as Santorum continued to surge nationally.

Now there are three polls in the state. Each shows a single digit Romney lead. The most recent of the three shows only a 3% margin.

But the airwaves here in Arizona are filled with unanswered Romney commercials. And Santorum has scheduled only a couple of events in the state, just prior to Wednesday's debate in Mesa AZ, when he has to be in the state anyway.

Arizona has substantial early voting numbers. Santorum has apparently taken a pass on the opportunity to deliver a potentially devastating double knockout to Romney (Michigan AND Arizona). And it is now probably too late for him to reverse this. A Santorum victory in Michigan will clearly hurt Romney, but Romney will be able to say "Won one, lost one." A double Santorum win could have been devastating. That now seems unlikely. A missed opportunity, perhaps his last one of the campaign.

See referenced Huffington Post blog.