Many years ago, in my college yearbook, I listed my intended future occupation as "Bayesian soothsayer." This facetious choice stemmed from a desire to be both mysterious and noncommittal, while at the same time acknowledging an immediate plan to study statistics (the begetter of Bayesianism) in graduate school. In retrospect,...

A recent poll in the Shanghai Daily asked readers "Why do you think foreigners seem more ready to help during an emergency?" The question was prompted by an event in which an Italian professor at Shanghai Tongji University pitched in to help passengers off a burning bus while...

In a previous post, I referred to a controversial scientific claim known as the "Allais effect" -- an anomalous change in a pendulum's oscillation that purportedly occurs during a solar eclipse -- to provide sardonic contrast to the more celebrated "Allais paradox," both ideas having been proposed by economist Maurice...

As the nation with the largest population and second-largest GDP, China is often perceived as a land of vast economic opportunity, where entrepreneurs hawking the latest novelties of high technology operate alongside others peddling the tried-and-true amenities of more mature economies. In the latter category fall the property insurance products...

Viewing a solar eclipse -- even a partial one, such as this morning's spectacle in Beijing -- is truly awe-inspiring. Affording a rare glimpse into the grand workings of the solar system that mystified -- and sometimes terrified -- our ancestors, it provides a clear reminder of how far civilization...

In principle, one would expect personal lines automobile insurance companies (State Farm, Allstate, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.) to realize a modest windfall from recent increases in gasoline prices. After all, higher gas prices should cause a decrease in miles driven by insured motorists, leading to fewer personal injury and physical damage...