Getting A Grip On Reality Over Iran's Nuclear Program

Pity the conservative thinker and reader haunted by the specter of a nuclear Iran. How would you feel if you got halfway through your day and someone punched a big hole in your already tenuous grasp on reality?

Vice President Cheney tried so hard to play his role of Big Daddy within the Big Daddy Party and protect the kids from facts that they were too young to deal with. But the intelligence community won, and finally we have professionals telling us what some of us knew: Iran's nuclear weapons program has long been more of a virtual threat, a diplomatic tool to keep its head above water in a complicated diplomatic ocean.

But don't worry, surrogates for the genius of our unitary vice president are already coming to the rescue. Check out some of the things they're saying.

The main line of response against the news from the U.S. intelligence community that Iran's nuclear weapon program is not fearful boils down to one word: Iraq. We overestimated on Iraq, therefore, we're probably underestimating on Iran. Check out Gabriel Schoenfeld at Commentary:

...the latest NIE is not a rock-solid judgment, and as we have already seen in a number of other dramatic instances, even the intelligence community's rock-solid judgments might not be solid at all.

To further the idea that consistency is the hobgoblin of the little minds, another junior blogger echoes this principle:

From overestimating the threat, we're going in the polar opposite direction, and being wrong in underestimating the situation is just as dangerous - if not more so.

But it won't stop there. I guarantee you. Look at this conclusion taken from the NIE itself about why Iran stopped pursuing its nuclear weapon program:

Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.

In no time at all, watch for wags on the right to declare that Iran's decision to drop its nuclear program in late 2003 is proof that we should have invaded Iraq. By implementing the Bush Doctrine, and demonstrating that the U.S. will take military action against proliferating boogeymen, they'll say we made Iran back down. Except that we didn't really know it until now.

Bottom line: It's time to let the adults take over on foreign policy again, and not the gawky teenagers who never stopped being pissed off about the hippies marching on their college campuses.

For half a decade now, Iran has been standing outside the room, waiting to make a deal with us. Iran is enriching uranium...yeah, so is Germany, and Japan is separating plutonium. We'd rather take aggressive diplomatic measures to put Iran in that category than to force them to feel like India, Pakistan, and Israel did in their decisions to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

Four words, President Bush: Let's make a deal.

Comments

[andySwellguy]

Clear Iran is NOT. The fact is , where did our diplomacy go? Just LOOK AT $100 OIL. Iran has not invaded any countries for over 200 years, & was invaded by Saddam with our help. Solution is dialogue, not threats & insane sanctions.

[Tankan]

Iran is in the process of accmulating the necessary components to construct a warhead, there can be no doubt about it, for military might is something that Iran unceasingly works at, and will covertly continue until it has the ultimate weapon in its arsenal. The question is, has it the right to do so any less than India, Pakistan or Israel, and what right, if any, does the international community have to tell Iran what to do in this matter. Iranians may well be fanatical, but they are not crazy, they know, should they use nuclear weapons it would mean the total annhilation of their nation, and dire consecquences for the region and the world. America, Israel and Great Britian in particular, have resolved to ensure, by whatever means, that Iran will not be permitted to obtain the bomb. When sanctions fail, Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed, with or without UN approval. The Persians will not take this lying down and will retaliate, striking at the achilles heel of the nations involved, plunging the region and the world into utter chaos!

[SamEllison]

I'm not so sure I want these fools making any deals for me. Let's wait for the grown-ups.
Somebody read them a book, please.

[Tellmethetruth]

BIDEN Issues Statement on National Intelligence Estimate


Washington, DC – Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D-DE) issued the following statement today after the release of the National Intelligence Estimate:

"The conclusions of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities are, figuratively speaking, explosive. Iran stopped its weapons-related work in 2003. And while it has resumed work on uranium enrichment, it is still at least several years away from producing the fissile material it would need for a nuclear weapon.

"This means that the international community has a significant window of opportunity in which to act to avoid the stark choice between going to war or accepting a nuclear Iran. But the Bush Administration has long lacked a comprehensive strategy to take advantage of this window. Instead of continuing its obsession with regime change and irresponsible talk of "World War III," we need a policy that focuses on conduct change. The NIE makes clear that the right combination of pressure and positive incentives could "prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program."

"Working with our allies and partners, not acting alone, we must make it very clear to Iran what it risks in terms of isolation if it continues to defy the international community's demand that it stop enriching uranium. But we also have to be just as clear about what it stands to gain – in terms of economic benefits, security guarantees, integration into the region and diplomatic relations – if it does the right thing. We should communicate this in direct talks with Iran."

[deminmo]

Since 2002 the White House and Israel have been
discussing ways to take on Iran. Whether to use
nuclear weapons, or conventional ones with
depleted uranium tips. Do they develope a new
form of "bunker Buster" or re-design the old.
Six nations offered Iran some options. But have
since decided that the "strategy of pressure
and engagement" is not working. The only sanity
in all of the following years has been to not
use nuclear weapons, because of civilian
casualties. Since when has that been a
consideration?
The loose cannon cowboy in the White House is
going to start a "conflict" with Iran. It
may be after Israel strikes first. Since Oct.
there have been practice strikes in Hawaii by
B2 bombers. All things point to another war.
Unless Congress takes some serious steps to
prevent it.

www.theherald.co.uk/search/display.var1792035
.0secret_m­ove_to_upg­rade_air_b­ase_for_ir­an_
attack_plans or just The Herald 11/29/07

[altohone]

Bush's whole persona is based on not backing down in the face of reality.

The reasonable option is staring us in the face, faxed via the Swiss embassy years ago, and still waiting to be embraced.

With Hillary and half the Dems choosing to support the Bush agenda (Kyl-Lieberman), it will take more than Bush leaving to attain a new approach.

The search for a new approach makes the Democratic primaries the main battleground for a change in ideologies.

Obama is what is needed.

[hu.man]

Algebra for newbies to Middle East:

Continue making veiled threats to attack Iran over the nukes = Price of Oil hovers around $100 a barrel

Continue pushing toothless sanctions proposals in UN against Iran = Pretending that something is being done to avert war with Iran = Maintaining the status quo with Iran = Price of Oil hovers around $100 a barrel

Price of Oil hovers around $100 a barrel = Bush and Cheney buddies get really rich

...and once you resolve these equations:

Picking bones with Iran over the nuclear issue = Bush and Cheney buddies get really rich

Price of Oil hovers around $100 a barrel = Iranian regime gets to consolidate their power

...and finally you get to the endless loop:

Iranian regime gets to consolidate their power = Price of Oil continues to hover around $100 a barrel indefinitely