Obama's Pick Creates GOP Opportunity

In selecting his best possible running mate, Barack Obama has just handed John McCain a terrific opportunity.

Make no mistake: Sen. Joe Biden was a prudent pick. Senator Joe has the seasoning and foreign-policy experience that Obama lacks.

He has overcome personal adversity to lead an impressive career. He's both intelligent and telegenic. He's scrupulous. And he has the common touch.

Perhaps most important is this: Biden is an asset in the bellwether Philadelphia suburbs, which will decide Pennsylvania and possibly the nation.

The man who rides Amtrak home to Delaware after a day of Senate business is sometimes referred to as Pennsylvania's third senator, both for his continued proximity and his Scranton roots.

Selecting Biden was Obama's play for Pennsylvania by way of the Philly 'burbs, and it's a good one.

But by making that play, Obama has given McCain the political cover he needed to respond with his best available pick:

Tom Ridge.

Ridge has much to offer McCain. From public housing to Harvard, his narrative is ready for the history books: He's a Vietnam veteran, a former U.S. representative and governor, and the first secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

He's Central Casting handsome and loyal to McCain.

And to top things off, he is an abortion-rights advocate.

Yes, I am including that position as an attribute for the ticket - mainly because the very people McCain needs to reach are pro-choice.

McCain's impressive performance Aug. 17 at the forum hosted by Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church earned him cred with the anti-abortion crowd.

He said all the right things that night, and the next morning Ridge made clear in an appearance with Chris Wallace on Fox News that he would reflect the president's positions if selected.

They would run under an antiabortion banner, but McCain's selection of Ridge would be a sign to non-litmus-test voters that they, too, are welcome - in the same way the Democratic platform has welcomed antiabortion voters.

The political middle is ripe for McCain support. Consider this: In a poll released last week by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, a staggering 21 percent of women who had supported Hillary Rodham Clinton said they were supporting McCain.

Sure, they're angry and want to see their candidate back on the ballot in 2012.

But I suspect they're also responding to McCain's efforts to recruit them.

McCain's success in appealing to former Clinton supporters proves he can gain ground in the middle, but not by resorting to the usual Republican reliance on turning out the vote by hitting the hot-button issues such as opposition to gay rights, flag-burning or abortion.

This is not a cycle in which the GOP should seek to drive the vote in Lancaster County. Now is the time to win hearts and minds in Montco.

I know that some pundits, including Rush Limbaugh, are saying McCain can ill afford to alienate the right by selecting an abortion-rights advocate as a running mate.

I disagree.

The suspicion of Obama among conservatives, epitomized by Jerome Corsi's new book, The Obama Nation, is deep and immutable.

Those conservatives will come out to vote, and neither maverick nor monsoon will stop them from doing so.

Some may be kicking and screaming, but they will be there Nov. 4.

They view the election as a referendum on Obama, and their minds are made up.

Suburbanites, meanwhile, are the non-ideological, pragmatic determinists of this contest, according to the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.

And those of us in the Philadelphia suburbs will play a particular role.

Pennsylvania is again a swing state.

And the state will be swung according to what happens in Bucks, Chester, Montgomery and Delaware Counties.

Those who sent Ed Rendell to Harrisburg will call this shot. Collectively they constitute the Philadelphia media market. They read The Inquirer, subsist on Action News, and get their headlines from KYW Newsradio.

All of which gets me back to Joe Biden.

We know him. We like him. Biden tilts Pennsylvania in Obama's direction. Which is why McCain has just been handed an opportunity to do something I suspect he wanted to do all along: choose Ridge as his running mate.

Obama-Biden vs. McCain-Ridge. We can settle it all in a polling place right here in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Comments

[clevelandchick]

Mr. Smerconish,

I have had more than one moderate conservative tell me that Obama's pick of Biden for VP has made them a lot more comfortable to vote for him and the pro-choice conservative women I know won't vote for McCain just because his VP is pro-choice.

McCain's position on choice is even more draconian than Bush's. He is against any exception for life/health of the mother or rape/incest. They know who's picking the SCOTUS judges and it's not Tom Ridge. Give women more credit than that.

My die-hard Republican dad and brother cannot stand McCain. They don't trust him at all and said they'll vote for Ron Paul or Bob Barr.

I think the Republican Party has waaayyyy underestimated the effect of their over-reach these last eight years, the utter failure the Bush/Cheney administration has been and how the religious right's stranglehold on the party has turned a lot of Republicans off.

Yeah, a bunch of racists may be motivated to go out and vote against Obama, but the GOP as a party is in trouble. They'll lose the more seats in the House and Senate. If John McCain wins? He is an opportunistic phony Bush clone that will only make the GOP look worse in the eyes of Americans. Talk about the death of Conservatism. You better hope Obama does win.

[Doofus]

If McCain can't pick this guy, or that guy, all for good reasons,
then he might well pick some gal, one who's been elected to
something, preferably, one who won't piss off one faction or the
other. Unless just being female would piss off too many Repos.

It's almost like he hasn't got anything to lose. He *has* to have
a VP to run with. It's not optional. Whoa whoa whoa, choose a laaady!

As for being Ridge handsome, well, it's all relative, isn't it.

[jfor]

McCain has no base. The people who supported him are people like me who actually believed in the straight talk express and the change he was bringing. Then of course Dubya happened and McCain the maverick became McCain the poodle and voters like me left shaking their heads in disgust. McCain had me and millions of like minded Americans and he threw us under the bus(h) paying homage to Jerry Falwell and John Hagee. He gambled and he lost and now I am voting for Obama.
I cannot think of anyone he could ask to be his veep that would change my mind.

[MorpheusXNYC]

Smerc, I love ya man, but I'm gonna have to disagree. McCain can't risk alienating the conservative, right wing base (which he is JUST beginning to woo back into the fold and solidify) by choosing pro-choice Ridge. What he gains in Independents he loses in Conservatives. It's a loser for him, despite the obvious appeal of his biography.
Look for Ken Doll (Mitt Romney) to wind up in the veep slot. Younger, personable, successful, Vidal Sasoon quality hair.

And you want to talk about central casting good looks? On one of Letterman's Top 10s, Barack said he would "appoint Mitt Romney as Secretary of Lookin' Good".

Nuff said. ;-)

[SeattleGator]

I think McCain can ill-afford to select Ridge as his running mate.

If he selects Ridge, it will be a political gift to Obama.

Ridge is known as BUSH'S guy. Ridge will remind voters of Bush.

The Democrats can even more so hammer the "McSame" message home.

[DeadDogDemocrat]

Please, McCain, choose Tom Ridge. Many pro-life Republicans would sit out the election. Smerconish is overlooking the role McCain's age will play in how voters will evaluate his VP choice. Everyone knows the chances he might have to resign for health reasons one day aren't negligible. How often does a president opt not to run for a second term? The last president to choose a new VP when running for reelection was Franklin Roosevelt.

Pro-life Republicans would ask this question: "Can we live with President Ridge"? No, they can't. They'd consider this a huge betrayal. If McCain were younger he might be able to get away with this, but since he's not he really has to pick someone who is backed by the Republican base (which probably means Romney, not a great pick but it comes with the fewest problems).

All of the talk about Lieberman, Fiorina, Ridge, etc., is just hot air. Seriously, though, I'd love him to go with any one of them, because the repercussions would be huge. I'm hoping the Republicans don't understand that McCain's VP pick will be judged the way FDR's was in '44.

[degenerate1991]

FDR could have won '44 with a cow for VP. No one expected him to die at the time.

[FirstShirt]

Moderate republicans who believe in a woman's right to choose and a strong national defense are not the minority. The extremists [of both parties] tend to scream down dissent but they can't control the ballot box. Moderate republicans are ready, and I hope willing, to take back their party.

Old Joe is as strong as Old John. But, he isn't the presidential nominee. Barack, to his credit, recognizes his weaknesses and is trying to be a leader and fill the voids in his candidacy. He has filled the foreign policy void with Biden and now he needs to fill the other voids and then he will be the perfect zero.

[BlueOnBlue]

When I read this column in the Philadelphia Inquirer yesterday, my first thought was that Smerconish was kidding. However, by the end he convinced me he seriously thinks Ridge is a good idea. I hope he convinces McCain it is, as well, because we could beat that ticket with Bambi as VP. And we have Biden.

I don't think Ridge could even deliver Pennsylvania. He was popular here because he brought in some pro-choice Dems to vote the Republican ticket against an anti-choice Dem. Those will be tough votes for McCain to get, running against two anti-choice candidates.

While I think Smerconish is one of the smartest and most reasonable guys on the right, this time he's way off base. The only thing good about this pairing is that "McCain/Ridge" smells like napalm in the morning.

[Soothsayer08]

Sorry But ridge is anything but "central casting hamdsome" He looks more like the Pillsbury Dough Boy. As an Obama supporter I don't think Tom Ridge will help McCain with anything but the Gulianni "911 fear card" people, even though Ridge was a failure as homeland sercurity czar. McCain, I'm sure is looking for someone that won't dimish his star, and Tom Ridge won't

[MrTessier]

I have always had an affection for Tom Ridge. He definitely has many supporters in Pennsylvania.

I just don't know how effective he would be in the general election. Winning Pennsylvania is going to be very difficult.

It's not only about alienating your base, it's about the donations and volunteer work. I agree, they will still show up to vote a McCain ticket, regardless of his running mate, but he will need to come much closer to matching Obama's boots on the ground then Hillary did.

Lastly, I don't think that Ridge is a very effective attack dog. McCain is starting to feel some of the backlash for running a mildly negative campaign, to appeal to those middle of the road voters, he needs to remain the Maverick, not reconstitute Bush's political strategies.

Biden has the luxury of being a fairly well known element, the opinion on him is pretty well established, Ridge on the other hand is more of an unknown. It'll be difficult to get into the attack dog role when your still making your first impression, especially with McCain's age. They set up McCain by saying that Biden is ready to lead from day one, that's the line of attack they will use on McCain's pick. Is he ready to lead? It hilights McCain's age, and forces him to select someone with high qualifications.

[PioneerKing]

If McCain is the better experienced candidate why did he need to wait for the least experienced person to select his running mate, before McCain could select a running mate?
McCain had his party's nomination in the bag nearly four months before the end of the Democratic Party’s primaries ended.
McCain's buddies in the main stream media were whining about Sen. Obama waiting so late to select his running mate, why haven't they bothered to question McCain’s tactics which are juvenile?
McCain's tactics are juvenile because McCain claims Sen. Obama does not have enough experience and lacks good judgment.
Yet, by waiting on Sen. Obama to make his VP selection before McCain would make his VP selection McCain undermines his argument about Sen. Obama's judgment.

AMAZING, SEN. OBAMA, THE POLITICAL NEOPHYTE, HAS CONTROLLED WHO AND WHEN THE REPUBLICANS SELECT FOR VP.

The republicans purported experienced candidate waited for the least experienced candidate to make a decision before he could select a VP.

The way McCain has waited for Sen. Obama is juvenile - it looks like high school student body officers are being selected by McCain.

Why would the person who claims to have the better judgment wait until a political neophyte picked his nominee?

This does not look like McCain is confident of his own judgment that he would play such a juvenile waiting game.
McCain looks like a gutless, chicken hearted juvenile by waiting for Sen. Obama to pick his running mate.

[FirstShirt]

"If McCain is the better experienced candidate why did he need to wait for the least experienced person to select his running mate, before McCain could select a running mate?"

It's called tactics. You might look it up. Imagine what will happen when the democrats, having just gorged themselves on, well, themselves, pour out of Denver ready to do battle with the media in hot pursuit and then.....Old John announces his running mate. Poof!! the bump is gone and the talk of the town is the republicans again.

[3Westies]

Sorry, I couldn't read anything past Smerc saying Ridge is "central casting handsome"!

[MrWampler]

Ditto.

[JohnFromCensornati]

"They would run under an antiabortion banner, but McCain's selection of Ridge would be a sign to non-litmus-test voters that they, too, are welcome"

They're welcome as long as they are willing to vote for something they don't want! LOL

[broilinginhouston]

I know Ridge resigned his post at DHS a few months before Katrina but that wouldn't stop the Democrats from trying to tar him with that brush -- especially when you add the notorious Bush/McCain "birthday cake" photos to the mix. Ridge on the McCain ticket would be a godsend to Obama.

[YesWeCanada]

Sweet, we can dig out the duct tape and color coded fear chart. LOL