Michael Vlahos is part of the National Security Assessment team of the National Security Analysis Department (NSAD) at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.


Dr. Vlahos has broad knowledge and professional expertise in History, Anthropology, National Security Studies, and Foreign Policy. At both the US State Department and at JHUAPL in the 1980s, he pioneered new approaches to thinking about world change, including innovative futures’ gaming and scenario development that correctly prefigured the coming apart of the Soviet Union. In the 1990s he worked directly with Congressman Newt Gingrich to imagine creative and different ways to bring needed new national policies the emerging world of the Internet. His teaching and research at Johns Hopkins SAIS, continuing since at APL, has led to the development of a broad analytic model for examining war and culture, with a primary focus on how military societies adapt, both to broader change within their own national cultures, and to the cultural dimension of new operational environments driven by new enemies. After 2001 this work has taken on a special urgency, and Dr. Vlahos has worked with anthropologists and Islamic Studies specialists to develop a culture-area concept to help the Defense World better understand and respond operationally to the changing environment of the Muslim World. This concept is developed in his two recent monographs, Terror’s Mask: Insurgency Within Islam (2002), and Culture’s Mask: War and Change After Iraq (2004), and his paper: Two Enemies: Non-State Actors and Change in the Muslim World.


Dr. Vlahos earned his doctorate in history and strategic studies from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University University, and is a 1973 graduate of Yale College. In addition to eight books and monographs, several published by the US Government and John Hopkins, Dr. Vlahos has published four score articles, appearing in, among others, Foreign Affairs, Washington Quarterly, The Times Literary Supplement, Foreign Policy, National Review, and Rolling Stone. He has received best essay awards from the Naval Institute Proceedings, the Marine Corps Gazette, the Naval War College Review, and the Applied Physics Laboratory Technical Digest. He was Director of the State Department’s Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs from 1988-1991, and Director of Security Studies at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies from 1981-1988.

Blog Entries by Michael Vlahos

Fighting Identity: Why We Are Losing Our Wars

Posted November 25, 2007 | 10:30 PM (EST)


The place: the River Frigidus, in a country we now call Bosnia. The time: autumn, 394. Two Roman emperors are at war, with the world in the balance. A deciding factor: Alaric's Gothic tribal militia. His shock troops storm the Laager, helping defeat the Western armies and reuniting the empire....

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What Zarqawi's Death Means

Posted June 13, 2006 | 08:24 AM (EST)


It is our resolute preference to see Zarqawi's death on our terms: what it means to us, how it affects our war. But what does his death mean to the movement of revolutionary Muslim revivalism that we call "Islamic radicalism?"

Two years ago I wrote a paper, Two Enemies: Non-State...

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Will We Fight Iran?

Posted March 7, 2006 | 10:12 AM (EST)


Will we fight Iran?

Another way to ask the question is: Will it be a war of choice?

In other words, will war happen because we want it, and freely decide that this is the best outcome of policies we have approved?

Or instead, will relentless stories -- iron...

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World War II - GWOT: Not!

Posted February 2, 2006 | 10:13 PM (EST)


The President's State of the Union message reminds us that war is more than violent activity -- it is also symbolic activity.

But what kind of symbolic activity? War is about meaning: war's symbols celebrate who we are, and wars do this by telling us a sacred story. The best...

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Kaplan's Eagles

Posted January 12, 2006 | 09:46 PM (EST)


There are two famous clichés about foreign wars and domestic politics.

The first of course is emblazoned by Vietnam, where the war that goes wrong over there comes back home to task our very souls. Perhaps it leads to a constitutional crisis narrowly averted, like Watergate. Perhaps, like the Mexican...

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Existentialist GWOT?

Posted January 4, 2006 | 09:30 PM (EST)


The Global War on Terrorism has produced its share of domestic political battles. But these little battles never get to the heart of the GWOT. Its existential "big ideas" are still unquestioned after four years.

I have been exchanging emails with a friend high up in the administration. He defends...

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Cold Mountain

Posted December 12, 2005 | 08:08 PM (EST)


Cold Mountain, Charles Frazier's novel of the American Civil War's final months, has much to tell us about Iraq.

First, almost nothing can be achieved in a place with multiple competing armed authorities, each saying that they are the real law, and each all too ready to take human life...

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