The Latino Vote: Courting an Increasingly Sophisticated Community

In the wake of the $700 billion bailout package proposed by Congress last week, Hispanics have made it clear that the economy is their number one issue. However, it is Congress' failure to pass a sweeping immigration reform package last year that may ultimately drive the Latino vote in this year's Presidential election.

With 46 million Latinos currently living in the U.S., Latinos represent 15% of the U.S. population, making them America's fastest growing segment. An estimated 17.9 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year, thanks to the efforts of groups like Voto Latino - significantly more than voted in 2004.

But it's not just the numbers of Latino voters that make a difference this election - it's where they live. Many of the Latinos registered to vote are located in key battleground states -- like New Mexico, where Hispanics make up 37% of state's eligible electorate; Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). And these swing states are all in play for 2008.

The two parties are clearly divided on the issue of immigration, with the division centered on the question of earned legalization, or "amnesty" as the conservative wing of the Republican Party calls it. There was a clear opportunity before the election to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill, but the conservatives in Congress derailed the legislation, which Senator McCain authored and sponsored. The McCain-Kennedy bill (SR 1433) was one of the most comprehensive immigration reform bills ever written, and offered not just enforcement policies and a tighter border controls, but also a viable guest worker program to cope with the continued demands of the labor market, and an earned path to citizenship for undocumented residents working and living in the U.S.

After the conservative outcry over the bill, Senator McCain backed away from his own legislation, shifting his emphasis to enforcement, focusing on deportation and tougher border security. He explained his reversal in a 2007 GOP debate: "Very seldom have I seen an issue that aroused this much passion with the American people. No one is for amnesty. I and the president came forward with a plan that we thought was comprehensive and workable with the priority being border security, which remains my position. Why we failed is because the American people have lost trust and confidence in us. We have to succeed, because there are 12 million people who are in this country illegally, which is de facto amnesty."

Senator Obama backs comprehensive immigration reform that offers a "path to legalization" with certain conditions, including mandating that immigrants learn English and pay a fine. Obama also supports tougher border security measures utilizing fencing and technology tools. He has also called for stronger enforcement against those who employ illegal immigrants, along with enhanced labor rights and a guest worker program where jobs are first offered to U.S. citizens.

Which of these positions will resonate most with voters? A new poll out this month from the New Democrat Network (NDN) offers an interesting glimpse of how voters in the four key swing states of New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado view the issue. Not only do these voters overwhelmingly support comprehensive immigration reform, including a "path to citizenship," but they also have a positive view of undocumented immigrants, believing they are here to work and seek a better life. They blame the federal government and Congress for failing to fix the broken immigration system.

Based on these views, it is no surprise that Senator Obama is performing much better in these states than Senator Kerry did in 2004, putting them all in play. However, what's most interesting is that, in each state, 14-20% of the Hispanic electorate remains undecided, which translates into two to six percent of the statewide vote in each state, significant enough to tip the state either way. And, if the opinion polls hold true, those who are still undecided are more likely to vote for the candidate who supports comprehensive reform rather than enforcement alone.

This leaves Senator McCain in the unenviable position of having to talk tough for the conservative wing of his party without alienating the Latino voters who are so critical to the outcome of this election.

The Republican gains George W. Bush made among Latino voters in 2004 have all but been erased. After the disastrous 2006 elections, which some strategists blamed on the Republicans' hard-line stance on immigration, the Republican Party brought in Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) to help guide the RNC, particularly through the treacherous waters of the immigration debate. He left his position in 2007, which many saw as an acknowledgment that the hard-liners had won on this issue.

In a column last year in the Washington Post, Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson notes: "I have never seen an issue [immigration] where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself. At least five swing states that Bush carried in 2004 are rich in Hispanic voters -- Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Bush won Nevada by just over 20,000 votes. A substantial shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democrats in these states could make the national political map unwinnable for Republicans. Some in the party seem pleased. They should be terrified."

It remains to be seen if Senator McCain will buck the conservatives and find his voice on this issue by articulating a clear strategy that lives up to the promise of his earlier Senate bill.

We've come too far on immigration reform to stop short of that goal. We've already succeeded in strengthening our border security, tripling the number of deportations of criminal aliens and making it harder for employers to illegally employ undocumented workers. Now it's time we pass a comprehensive immigration reform plan that brings the 12 million undocumented immigrants out of the shadows and into a legal system of employment.

Mickey Ibarra is former White House director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs during the Clinton Administration and Founder and Chairman of the nonpartisan Latino Leaders Network.

Comments

[vicenteduq]

Obama will win by a Big Landslide and Racials, Multiracials and Latinos will help a lot.

I have been gathering the Price numbers for Bets at INTRADE. These are the prices for buying and selling options or shares to win $100 if your candidate wins.

I make a Toss Up States Table with the numbers every day and I am astonished to see how the Obama prices increase in these States and how McCain sinks in price in those swing states, day by day. See below please.

The Obama Coalition consists of : Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, Multiracials, White Youth, The Educated and Cultured Whites, The Moderate and Tolerant Protestants, Catholics, Italians, Irish, etc..

The Coalition has a great future for many years or decades to come, because of Demographic Changes that announce a great increase of non whites, specially Youngsters and first time voters.

See more demographic Information here :

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

My study of Bets and Polls :

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

[Midnight Writer]

I agree with previous comments about the market being flooded with illegals driving down the wages as well as a drain on the school and medical system. Also we have issues of companies bringing in foreigners from other countries filling jobs in more skilled occupations, which also drives down the wages and limits americans applying for the same jobs. And one other thing. Most of us coming to this country learned english and now we cater more and more to other languages which cost taxpayers even more.

[Mares]

We have corrupt city governments, like those in 'San Francisco and Los Angeles, that seek to violate federal law, by protecting illegal aliens, including criminal illegals. 17 year old honor student, and football star, Jamiel Shaw, who was being scouted by Rutgers, was slaughtered, three blocks from his home, by an illegal alien gang banger, who had just been released from the city jail the day before. The criminal had a long rap sheet, but due to Mayor Villaragosa's coddling such criminals, the killer was allowed to walk free. Shaw's mother was serving in Iraq at the time of her son's death, and his father was raising both Jamiel and a younger son, and doing an exemplary job.

An interesting aside, while Villaragosa demands that police not check the immigration status of even the worst criminal illegals, he demanded that police harass the Shaws, in Leimart Park in Los Angeles, when they were collecting signatures for a petition to repeal Special Order 40. Villaragosa, knowing that the Shaws collected signatures in the park each Saturday, ordered his officers to disrupt the petition process, and force the Shaws to show ID, including social security cards. This happened the day after Villaragosa had flown off to Denver to attend the Democratic National Convention.

[Mares]

Hispanics, (Latino is a misnomer, a label concocted to distance Hispanics from their history of genocide against the indigenous, who they now pretend to be, and their ancestors creation of the trans-Atlantic slave trade.) are not monolithic. If you speak to Hispanic American citizens across the country, including in places like New Mexico, there are many who do not support amnesty, or increased immigration because the influx of illegals have destroyed their wage standards, their workplace protections, deteriorated the public education they need their children to benefit from, as well as increased their state and local taxes, and other costs of living.

I would appreciate seeing a credible voice discussing the realities faced by citizens, who are black, brown and white at present. Why not invite Dr. George Borjas, of the Kennedy School of Government, an expert on the facts that increased immigration, whether illegal or through the exploitation of our visa programs, have decreased citizens wages, and displaced citizens, causing increased unemployment. Dr. Borjas has proven that we do NOT have a worker shortage of any kind, nor do we have a skills shortage, that illegals DO undermine the wages of citizens.

We do not have a broken immigration system, we have corrupt elected officials who demand that our laws not be enforced.