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Mike Lux

Mike Lux

Posted: October 3, 2009 01:51 PM

Bankers and Workers

What's Your Reaction?

Two new economic studies just came out that, especially taken in combination, are truly stunning and profoundly troubling. The first, by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (a DC-based think tank), reported that the federal government is essentially subsidizing the Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks in terms of the interest rates banks must pay to borrow funds. The second, coming out of Rutgers University, tells us that- if all goes quite well- that we don't get back to our pre-recession level of employment until the last half of 2017.

These two things are each worthy of huge concern. In combination, they spell very, very big economic trouble for America.

Let's take the TBTF issue first. The administration certainly deserves plenty of credit for stabilizing the collapsing economic system when they came into office, but the way they did it was to resuscitate the big Wall Street banks rather than to restructure the system. In the process the TBTF banks actually got even bigger because of (sometimes forced) mergers some of their competitors going out of business. The TBTF banks are even bigger and even likelier to be bailed out in a future economic crisis.

Now it turns out that in addition to having helped bail them out in the first place, we are subsidizing them in other ways. The CEPR report makes clear the gap in the interest rate they have to pay between the TBTF banks (which are generally doing quite well) and smaller regional banks is getting bigger as a result of government policies. As the report notes:

If this gap is attributable to the TBTF policy, it implies a substantial taxpayer subsidy for the TBTF banks. In effect, because of the government safety net being extended to investors who lend money to these banks, the TBTF banks are able to borrow at a much lower cost than banks who must borrow based on their own credit worthiness. The increase in the gap of 0.49 percentage points implies a government subsidy of $34.1 billion a year to the 18 bank holding companies with more than $100 billion in assets in the first quarter of 2009.

Even as the big banks rake in massive profits, the smaller independent banks continue to struggle, with many going out of business.

Now let's take a look at the jobs report. An average of 1.3 million people are added to the American labor force every year, because of young people entering the job market, mothers re-entering the labor force, legal immigration, etc., so in order to get back to full employment, we have to produce a lot more jobs than that. And when you add to that the fact that the 2001-2010 decade will be essentially a lost decade in terms of job growth -- a job-shedding recession at the beginning, massive job losses at the end, and very weak private sector employment growth in the "recovery" in the middle of the decade -- we have dug ourselves into a deep, deep hole in terms of the number of new jobs we have to create in this century.

The Rutgers report estimate says that if the United States started producing 2.15 million jobs a year, starting at the very beginning of 2010, it would take almost eight years in a row of producing those numbers before we got back to December 2007 labor market conditions. That's August 2017. To put that in perspective, consider the following:

  • The average post-World War II economic expansion is 58 months, compared to the 80 months at 2.15 million jobs a year this report says we would need to be back to pre-2008 crash labor market conditions.

  • In the Clinton years, we had the strongest, most sustained jobs growth since the 1960s, and averaged about 2.75 million new jobs a year. That says this kind of job growth is at least possible, which is good, but on the other hand, we were just coming out of a relatively mild recession in January 1993 when Clinton took office. Obama is faced with a far deeper hole to get us out of.

  • Things in December 2007, just before this recession came in weren't exactly hunky dory. In the 2001-07 "expansion", private sector employment lost ground compared to the number of people in the workforce, by a total of 550,000 fewer jobs than new people entering. Income for workers with jobs, meanwhile, remained essentially flat.

  • Getting us back to that mediocre December 2007 pre-recession place assumes steady, consistent, strong job growth year after year until late 2017. Even optimistic economists are not predicting a lot of job growth in 2010. And this kind of steady expansion assumes no slowdown when the stimulus money runs out in 2011, when the federal budget deficit starts to be trimmed by Congressional budget hawks, or when another speculative bubble created by Wall Street might burst.


Which brings me back to our Too Big to Fail banker friends. This country needs an economic policy whose central focus, whose number one priority, whose driving mission is the creation of good jobs. Having a few big bankers making money through speculative trading does nothing to create jobs, and endangers us over and over again in the years to come.

We need to get health care reform passed, because (among other reasons) a good bill would cut costs and make our entire economy more productive. But then we need to get down to the hard work of (a) restructuring our financial system and breaking up these Too Big to Fail banks; and (b) a major new policy initiative to spur job creation in a very big way.

 
Two new economic studies just came out that, especially taken in combination, are truly stunning and profoundly troubling. The first, by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (a DC-based think t...
Two new economic studies just came out that, especially taken in combination, are truly stunning and profoundly troubling. The first, by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (a DC-based think t...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
efmo
Oh no, my micro-bio is empty!
10:12 PM on 10/05/2009
We need a 'Teddy Roosevelt' to do some trustbusing (as Simon Johnson said on Bill Moyers) and instead we got Larry Summers & Tim Geithner. I think I want my son to move to another country as soon as he finished school. But which one?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
T4
Entreprenuer and financial consultant
06:31 PM on 10/05/2009
I hope Mike Lux reads this - Mike, I get the analysis - I got the analysis in October when the first of these plans unfolded - only someone who wasn;t getting paid off got that this was a travesty. The Obama/Bush trickle out theory - if I give lots of good money to bad people they will do good things - doesn;t work. This is a catastrophe and it calls for opening a few channeled econ thought patterns. Using new tech we can solve the basics of the econ bottleneck by EOY. The bottleneck is the lack of consumer confidence brought on accumulated debt and the general atmosphere of doom. More indirect random stimulus or credits or refunds won;t effect anything - it will just be absorbed like a sponge. Consumers don;t buy - the engine freezes. Give taxpayers a direct one time across the board reset - set up a $100k debit account for every citizen taxpayer that filed in 2008 - it can only be used for debt like home loans, CC, medical, etc.and it time out at EOY. Foreclosures down, liquidty up, CC debt gone, confidence up, inventories down and jobs up to meet pent up demand. Read some details - prosperitynow4u.org /ccra.aspx
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
11:50 AM on 10/05/2009
A point I want to make, which keeps getting lost in these debates.
"Speculative trading" describes the futures markets, hedge fund managers, financial derivatives, and other extremely risky specualtion instruments our financial industries have invented over the last couple of decades. It is the same as gambling with other people's money, and taking the profits from them.
"Speculative trading" does not fall within the definition of an "investment". Our 401K plans, mutual fund plans, retirement plans, savings plans, etc. should not be tainted by this speculative trading, but should instead be composed of long term investments. That is how it started when we first started buying into this system, and before it became perverted by the greedy financial wizards of today.

We need to cleanse our banking systems and financial systems, of this "speculative trading" disease.
We the people are speaking out, and need this change to occur now.
It is a first step to securing our own futures.
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
11:39 AM on 10/05/2009
Why did Obama administration save the TBTF banks and continue to support speculative trading that has ruined our economy? It seems that a majority of bloggers agree on this problem, and what needs to be done, yet nothing is being done still. We are all very ineffective in campaigning for our cause. The bankers and politicians are laughing all the way to the bank, while all the bloggers are belly-aching on the internet.
It is not working, folks!
We need a better battle plan, we need an effective strategy. We need much more political activism and much more lobbying of our legislators and business leaders.
Or have we just admitting to failure, and watching helplessly as the system collapses around us?
When the system fails, there will be anarchy. Is that what we should be preparing for now?
I am confused. What is the strategy now?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
06:22 AM on 10/05/2009
it's all bad
04:42 AM on 10/05/2009
Remember when our government actually had a "War on Poverty"?

As has been mentioned by others, there really is no representative at high levels of the Obama Administration who has experience creating and building a small business. That is how we can heal towns and cities, because the money earned will be spent locally. Jobs will be created. Communities will thrive.

Banks need to lend to small businesses. I believe there is micro-lending in the U.S., which is another way to help businesses that would otherwise not qualify for financing.

We need job training programs. In another story, recruiters were whining about not being able to find qualified workers. Wouldn't it be great if there was a government incentive to hire workers and retrain them for the jobs that are going unfilled?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
sweakley
09:38 AM on 10/05/2009
You're right. I saw one economist say our economy is basically the same as the casinos in Las Vegas, they're designed to take peoples money and put in the corporations pockets and produce nothing in return compared to what they take in. Currently the only consumer in the USA is the federal government. Exports aren't going to support us, we don't make anything substantial here anymore, and most of the jobs are low paying service or retail jobs. I think Krugman said the other day that unless somebody comes up with something like the railroad or the internet, we're screwed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
EbonBear
opinionated hairy man
04:26 AM on 10/05/2009
The central problem with the American (and my own British) economy is pretty simple: Too many people whose job is moving money around; too few people actually making things.
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06:21 AM on 10/05/2009
YEESSSS!!!!!

bankers should always be secondary to manufacturing, but now they run everything, and even our principles: greed is good, and make a profit at any cost (that is, any cost other than financial)
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02:44 AM on 10/05/2009
I think Americans know what needs to be done about our healthcare and financial
system but they are witnessing our political system preventing what needs doing.
It is horrifying to watch this Obama administration go back on its campaign
promises.
01:49 AM on 10/05/2009
The most prescient words Bush ever uttered: "this sucker's going down..."
11:47 PM on 10/04/2009
The greedy deregulated CORPORATE PROFITEERS getting a "free ride" on the backs of
American workers & middle class since 1980 who did us "the favor" of CRASHING AMERICA'S ECONOMY need to pay up, shut up with their ADVERTISING LIES & LOBBYISTS and
start to CONTRIBUTE TO AMERICA instead of shoveling our USTreasury's tax money into
their no-bid contract, deregulated, no-tax pockets.

Enough already with those grubby profiteers.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
FHTB
02:43 AM on 10/05/2009
darker, you said it perfectly...fanned!
06:58 AM on 10/05/2009
They were given carte blanche by the crooks in the Bush Administration, who purposely kept Federal Regulators out of reach and relaxed a whole plethora of laws.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rinpochet
Do unto others ...
07:56 PM on 10/04/2009
With Geithner and Sumners in charge, we have the foxes in charge of the hen house. Don't hold your breath for any meaningful bank regulation.
09:01 AM on 10/05/2009
Larry Summers ran the Harvard Endowment into the ground.
05:13 PM on 10/04/2009
They should have used the Federal Reserve more creatively, to invest in the real economy instead of just bailing out the big Wall Street banks. It has just made our economic imbalances worse, and is good reason to be disappointed with Obama and those he has appointed.

The Fed should be doing a lot more to help the rest of the country, including more investment in state and local governments, energy, infrastructure, new green industries, high speed rail, and so on.
07:03 AM on 10/05/2009
Maybe the Chinese will invest not just in real estate (which they already are doing), but also small businesses to manufacture specialized goods they will sell to Americans. Meet the new boss: Sum Yung Guy. That's free enterprise, right Rogue Sarah?
02:56 PM on 10/04/2009
The federal government is misplaced, ill-equipped, and simply too dysfunctional to spend money in ways that create the jobs and opportunities that we so badly need in our communities.

The most effective way to rebuild our economy from the ground up is for communities to invest in themselves. Local credit unions and community banks are best placed to manage this investment.

The government should inject capital into these institutions in proportion to their deposits to lend into their respective communities, with profits split 50/50 between their depositors and the taxpayers.

Another portion of capital equal to the interest due on the rest should be set aside for debt-free grants to those members of the community in the most need who would not otherwise be creditworthy.

This is not a handout -- this creates the money that the community needs to pay the interest on the loans, which the local financial institutions issue by creating only enough money for the principal.

The distant government in Washington has to trust that communities know best how to take care of themselves and invest public capital in the local institutions that can best put it to work for Americans.
04:58 PM on 10/04/2009
jsarents, very interesting ideas (as usual). Any thoughts on a new Chicago Plan?

1) Incorporate the Federal Reserve System into the U.S. Treasury where all new money is created by government as money, not interest-bearing debt, and spent into circulation to promote the general welfare; monitored to be neither inflationary nor deflationary.

2) Halt the banks privilege to create money by ending the fractional reserve system. All the past monetized private credit is converted into U.S. government money. Banks then act as intermediaries accepting savings deposits and loaning them out to borrowers; what people think they do now.

3) Spend new money into circulation on infrastructure, including education and healthcare needed for a growing society, starting with the $1.6 trillion that the American Society of Civil Engineers estimate is needed for infrastructure repair; creating good jobs across our nation, re-invigorating local economies and re-funding government at all levels.

http://www.monetary.org/chicagoplan.html
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WIpatriot
I've seen enough to make me Progressive
06:36 PM on 10/04/2009
AMI is right.

But do you think the financial elite will let this happen?
08:05 PM on 10/04/2009
It's better than anything I've seen seriously considered, but some comments:

1) Abolish the Fed. U.S. Treasury charters private banks to create money by issuing interest-bearing loans AND debt-free grants equal to the interest due.

2) Full reserve lending is unnecessarily conservative. As long as the ratio of debt-free grants to interest-bearing loans reflects the effective average interest rate, fractional reserve banking is a fair and effective means of supplying liquidity.

3) I don't believe that any one leader or institution has all the right answers as to how we should invest in our future. I believe in a marketplace of ideas where communities are free to come up with innovative solutions that befit the diversity of American life.

As President Obama once said, "What works in Chicago doesn't necessarily work in Cheyenne."

I believe that small, self-selecting collectives can be just as forward-looking and socially responsible as large, forced constituencies -- if not more so. It is only when we are encouraged to compete against one another as individuals that we lose our sense of civic duty and neglect our responsibilities to each other and to our future.
09:46 PM on 10/04/2009
Unfortunately local government and community is just as corrupt as the federal monster. Both are full of it. The problem goes deeper than that and requires deeper solutions.
09:57 AM on 10/05/2009
Local government is corrupted by capital investment through corporate entities. You're correct that it's not enough to reallocate misplaced power from the state to the community. Misplaced power must also be reallocated from the corporation to the workplace. That's the deeper solution to the deeper problem.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rinpochet
Do unto others ...
02:46 PM on 10/04/2009
I would love to see ANY politician in DC come out and say, "the middle class is to big to fail" and do whatever they can to stabilize it as they did the banks.

It all comes down to money. If the middle class had the big bucks to contribute and lobbyists, they would be given attention. As it is, the banks with their lobbyists and huge $$$ contributions are the one who will be consistently saved from their own greed and corruption. The middle class is on the receiving end of the the crooked practices of some of these banks and is basically left to fend on its own, while its tax dollars are used to save those who destroyed the economy.
01:39 PM on 10/04/2009
"We need to get health care reform passed, because (among other reasons) a good bill would cut costs and make our entire economy more productive. But then we need to get down to the hard work of (a) restructuring our financial system and breaking up these Too Big to Fail banks; and (b) a major new policy initiative to spur job creation in a very big way."

This is so right on. There is only one way our country will become as vibrant, innovative and competitive as it once was: we must get rid of the artificially rigged health care prices that are breaking individuals, small businesses and the economy. And we must allow the demise of failed banks and their failed leaders so that new and better people can create new and more successful businesses and banks.

By turning our economy into one with a few monopolies, and by propping up incompetent, inefficient and unscrupulous industries and people, we just assure the failure of our country and economy. This un=free market is even more unAmerican and just as foolish as appointing a race track manager--- instead of the best person for the job-- to head FEMA. (We all know how Katrina went and can look forward to an even worse economic and social distress hurricane if this runaway government is not put back on track)
07:18 AM on 10/05/2009
Financial regulation, health care, trade policy, energy policy / environment, transportation systems, power grid / infrastructure, education / retraining...all of this and more is sorely needed.

So much needs to be done, but the ONLY way it will be possible is to end the two wars and cut defense spending drastically. THAT is where the money should come from, to invest in the American people's domestic needs. For decades, defense has been the biggest drag on the economy, because other than technology spin-offs (like the Internet) most of that investment did not pay off except through arms sales to other countries.

Those technology advances should be made through research & development funded by a partnership of business and government, like they do it in Japan. But this should be directed toward manufacturing of high quality products for domestic use, instead of weapons systems, nuclear warheads, and foreign bases.