Cross-posted on OpenLeft
Between our steady and perhaps even expanding generic congressional national polling lead, the massive Obama GOTV operation (57 swing congressional races are in Obama targeted states), and the huge DCCC money edge, we have a legitimate shot at really blowing out our pickup margin.
Chris Bowers predicted a 22-28 seat pickup, the DCCC has an incredible 63 candidates on its Red to Blue program, and now DCORP's latest poll of the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts shows us steadily picking up our polling numbers each of the last two weeks. According to DCORP, we are now eight points up in the 20 top-tier targets, meaning we could easily pick up 15 of them. Even more importantly, we are only slightly down in the next two tiers down. Even without the Obama turnout taken into account, even if the upward polling trend doesn't continue, we are currently poised to pick up close to half these races. On top of the 50 GOP-held districts being polled by DCORP, there's another 13 races the DCCC is targeting and while when you get that for down the chart, it gets tougher and tougher to pick up wins, you still might add two or three in this bottom 13.
What all this means is that if the election were held today, adding no seats for the Obama turnout operation, the expected youth/African-American tide of new voters, or any other factor, we would be likely to pick up at least mid-20s in House seats. Absent a last-minute fade in the polls, I think 25 should be our minimum goal, and that we should be pushing to stretch that number well past 30. I think the best way to make that happen is to give money to candidates (or state parties or outside groups working in these districts) who have been on the rise in recent weeks who are in those tougher districts to win. The candidates in open seats that are 50-50 or better D/R, that have been targeted by the DCCC for 18 months and have already raised way into the seven digits, are probably going to make it in this atmosphere. The exceptions in terms of needing help are people like Darcy Burner, who even though she's been targeted from the beginning by the DCCC, is still heavily dependent on the progressive community, and especially hated and feared by the GOP establishment. Another exception to this rule would be Betsy Markey in Colorado, who is despised by the right-wingers for taking on their hero, Marilyn Musgrave, and who is in a top-tier target state for Presidential and Senate reasons. So here are my up and coming "get us over a 30-seat pickup list":
1. Darcy Burner (WA-08): per the above
2. Betsy Markey (CO-04): per the above
3. Judy Feder (VA-10): up and coming race, top-tier target for Obama in the most important swing area of the state for him. Judy would be a major leader for health care reform in Congress.
4. Nick Liebham (CA-50): Running against the worst person in Congress (with Tancredo retiring) on immigration issues, Brian Bilbray, just an awful person. Nobody's given Nick a chance, but he's suddenly in a statistical dead heat, and Bilbray would be hugely important to knock off.
5. Tom Perriello (VA-5): A strong progressive, Perriello is also running against one of the most awful, bigoted right wingers in Congress, Virgil Goode. As noted above, in a top targeted state for Obama.
6. Elwyn Tinklenberg (MN-6): Everyone knows the story here. Beating Bachmann after his anti-American remarks would be sweet.
7. Sam Bennett (PA-15): Sam's been on a steady uphill climb all cycle long, and with the GOTV operation for Obama in PA, she's got a real shot.
8. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3): Another up-and-comer in this classic swing state, and the GOTV operation could be the thing that wins it for her.
9./10. Walt Minnick (ID-1)/Gary Trauner (WY-AL): Horrible Republicans, two more up and comers with a decent shot in extremely Republican states but in a region trending toward the Democrats.
11. Jim Esch (NE-2): Gotta give a shout-out to my homeboy Jim Esch. Nobody thought he had a chance against Lee Terry in 2006, and he came close to knocking him off, plus the Obama organization is working this district like crazy.
12./13. Joe Garcia/Raul Martinez: Florida's the biggest target state for Obama in the country, and these two surprising challengers have a chance to knock off old guard right-wing Cuban Republicans. Winning a double victory here would be huge symbolically, and would and help Obama a lot.
14. Dina Titus (NV-3): While there is one poll showing Titus ahead, she has spent most of her campaign trailing Jon Porter, and trails badly in the money race. But Obama's got a lead in Nevada now after being down not that long ago, and the GOTV operation may carry a rising Titus to victory. This race is also important in terms of helping shore up Harry Reid's seat in two years.
If we end up winning a majority of these races, it almost certainly pushes us past the 30+ seat pickup margin. And 10 of these are also in states that Obama is targeting, making support of them a nice twofer.
Of the 14 (Burner, Markey, Liebham, Perriello, Tinklenberg, Minnick, Trauner, Garcia, Martinez) also have the big added bonus of being big symbolic wins that the media will pay attention to: Burner because of her rising up through grassroots/netroots activism; Markey, Liebham, Perriello, Tinklenberg because they beat nationally known right-wing leaders; Minnick and Trauner because they hail from some deep red states; Garcia and Martinez because of their new generation Hispanic leadership beating the old guard Cuban leadership.
If you want to help push us past a 30-seat pickup, these are the races to give to.