As I have been saying for a while, you can make a case based on whatever data you want to choose right now that either the Republicans will crush us this election, or that there is more reason for optimism by us Democrats. The numbers any given day are all over the place. However, the polls coming out over the last 48 hours or so are giving Democratic optimists more numbers to buttress their case.
There are public polls out all over the country. In House and Governor races they are, not surprisingly, a bit all over the place. Those races tend to feel closer to home to voters, and local issues and dynamics matter more. So do really good (or bad) individual ads and mail pieces. There are also fewer public polls in House races, and a lot fewer reliable polls. So while the numbers in House and Gov races do of course generally follow the national trends- in case you hadn't noticed, a lot more Democratic seats are in jeopardy than Republicans- big national trends are harder to spot and slower to develop. The numbers in these races seem to be moving the right way in a lot of places- Brown is back up in CA, Sink is back up in FL, Patrick Murphy has pulled ahead in PA, Kagen in WI is back into a dead heat- but they remain all over the map, and it's harder to spot an overall trend.
The place where national patterns tend to be easiest to see in off year elections is Senate races: big national races where lots of national interest groups play heavily, and where there are always new polls coming out to look at. It is also important to note that in Senate races for the last several cycles, the party with the most momentum going into the final two weeks won the overwhelming majority of the closely contested Senate races. National patterns really stand out in the Senate races. That is why I am encouraged by what I am seeing in the last few days of polling. Democratic candidates in a bunch of different races around the country seem to be gaining ground, in most cases even though they are being dramatically outspent. Check out this pattern:
I can't put this in the same category, because the public polls are contradictory, but after trailing by double digits most of the race, Lee Fisher has pulled within 6 or 9 in his race with Bush's former trade and budget czar. There's another (less reliable in my view because they oversample Republicans) that shows the race going in the opposite direction, so in this race the surge is more uncertain, but given that Gov. Strickland and other statewide Democrats seem to be moving up I think it is likely that Lee is moving positively as well.
The only two competitive Senate races that seem to be moving in the wrong direction are CA and WA, where both Boxer and Murray had seemed to establish small but solid leads and are now back in a dead heat. Since Republican conservatives don't like strong progressive women, their secretive PACs and 501(c)s are spending like maniacs in those two races, so that is clearly part of the problem, but I'm not sure what else is going on out west that is so different from the rest of the country. Outside of these two races, the overall trend in Senate races, though, is definitely and clearly toward our side.
The other new polling I am seeing which heartens me is a new poll of Hispanic voters which shows dramatically higher interest in voting now than just a few days ago. Combined with some recent polling on blacks' increasing interest in voting, and it looks like at least part of the Democratic base is beginning to be energized to participate in this election. A recent poll by Stan Greenberg of what he calls the Rising American Electorate (which he defines as African-Americans, Hispanics, unmarried women, and youth) shows a steadily rising interest in voting, although there is still a ton of work needed to be done to get them out to vote.
This election is still very much up in the air. Some trends in the right direction over a few days of polls do not disguise the challenge we have in winning one tough contested race after another, especially given the way we are being outspent by big business special interests. But there is reason to think we are moving in the right direction, so all you activists and fundraisers and doorknockers and phone callers out there: keep fighting.
Cross-posted at OpenLeft.com, where you can read all of my writing on electoral and polling analysis.
I'll be here with bells on nov. 3rd. wallowing in your wallowing!
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President Obama is the most honorable and intelligent person we will ever have as our president. The only disappointment is that he didn't take office in 2004!
OBAMA/BALDWIN 2012!!!
Republicans dont have votes to stop liberal agenda
democrats not working together
liberal agenda squashed
by who? democrats!
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Wrong answer Craig, Dems control the House. Bills are passed in the house. Bills go to the Senate to die because they are filibustered by Republicans. That is the problem; it only takes one filibuster to stop everything. I am going to let you in on a secret in case you did not know. The GOP has racked up the highest number of filibusters in our entire history. The average is around 20, the highest, which is by the GOP, was 56. Last year it was at 110 and growing. Because of this little stunt by the GOP, hundreds of bills are pilled up collecting dust in the senate. I guess if you are going to obstruct...Go Big!
The problem is that dems ran in 2008 as centrists. they promised pay-as-you-go and responsible spending. They promised to reduce health insurance cost. they promised the stimulus would lower unemployemnt. they promised to stop foreclosures (which are at record highs)
I am sorry democrats but you can't blame the people with no power for not governing as you promised. American gave you a shot. they liked your message and you abused their trust. Americans don't care for that anymore.
We have been in a Recession. The use of scapegoats during economic downturns to increase fear in the populace is a very politically useful tool for politicians (Republicans in this case) to push their wants. "Fear" is a simple emotion to manipulate; "understanding" is neither easy to spread or is it simple to inculcate via 30 second spots.
http://www.tomkando.com/
http://european-americanblog.blogspot.com/
Forget what the papers and TV pundits say. Just shut up, show up and vote.
But the thought of what these far-right candidates would bring to the country has scared many people into showing up to the polls with nosepegs in some cases. They may be voting out of fear and disgust rather than the hope of two years ago, but they are voting. Whether it is enough to save one or both houses from Republican control we will have to see.
You are saying fear republican control.
I just no longer have hope that much of anything other than more corporate welfare will pass with Democratic control.
Trickle down is a lie.