My Prediction: Palin Stops the Bleeding Tonight

Cross-posted on OpenLeft

Joe Biden is a good debater, and there's always the chance that Palin will say something incredibly stupid, but my strong bet tonight is that she does well and stops or at least slows down her meltdown in the polls.

I actually think this debate is set up extremely well for her:

• Incredibly low expectations

• Short answers on broad predictable topics

• Lots of prep time with smart GOP operatives giving her zingy one-liners that will play well on news clips in the days following the debates

• Biden feeling a need to walk on tiptoes because he doesn't want to seem condescending

• Pre-written Republican talking points attacking Biden's condescension and Palin's strong, expectation-beating performance
  

Even if all of this comes to pass, it won't change the basic dynamics of the race. I do think, though, that it will stop the bleeding and stabilize her approval rating... at least until her next incredibly stupid answer to someone's question.

Comments

[maeme]

Your last sentence should include the words "without cue cards" she is awful; with them she is okay, but so programmed.

[the-lexicon]

I've figured out one of her tricks.

Almost every answer she gives to ANY question, has the words "the great", "America/American/Americans", "wisdom/listen", etc.

For example, she CAN'T say something like, "voters don't like taxes". She has to say "you know, the thing that I find again and again in this great country of America, is that the voters are saying in their wisdom that I listen to that the tax thing is too much."

Basically, it's the reason for her word salad. She ends up with these big convoluted dangling sentences without real punctuation, because she has to fit all these "key message words" into it.

another example: Q: Sarah, what time is it? A: "as the people themselves know, in America, the great thing is that we have access to so much, so they have time in their wisdom to be proud, because it's still an hour before dinnertime."

It is gibberish, but it creates this kind of "hum" of push-words....america...wisdom...great...

that's why she so often sounds like an idiot. It's on purpose. Says nothing, but leaves a particular impression of "tone".

lexicon

[vschicago]

I could stop the bleeding too if I had a hidden earpiece which would allow someone to feed me the information I need to answer questions. She'll be wearing her hair down tonight....I wish I could places bets on that!

[SensibleOne]

These "debates" -- especially this one -- are a joke. All this "practice" time beforehand is ludicrous. All Palin will do is throw out one-liners she was given to memorize and try to attack Biden and Obama, using memorized talking points she's been given. This is nothing but a charade.

[Brian Ross - Huffpost Blogger]

See Brian Ross's Profile

Perhaps some of your presumptions should be changed. Email your favorite news organization and remind them that you will switch them off for the remainder of the campaign if they try to under spin Sarah. They are reacting in large part to their audience research that tells them that they have a lot of red staters in the audience at CNN that they're trying to keep away from Fox. If they think that they will be slitting their throats with a Sarah spin-down, perhaps they put Rowland Martin or Carville into the mix and make the post-debate coverage a bit more honest.

That's keeping them REAL.

[GeorgeP922]

Well hopefully the Obama/Biden strategists read this well and decide to pull out the box cutters and destroy with 1000 little proverbial cuts.

the bleeding must continue, palin was the best gift to the dem ticket mccain ever gave us!

[greginwva]

I mean this sincerly(as Joe might say),this is the free space on the bingo card.She aint running for mayor or debating to an audiance of cod fisherman,fishing and hunting guides and oil roughnecks tonight.Joe's accomplishments include historic bills that protect women and putting 1000s of cops on the street to protect us and thats just for starters.Relax,microwave some popcorn and chill.Its gonna be fine.Joe's a gentelman so I dont expect he'll try to make her look stupid.He'll finish looking like a very assuring presence in the next administration.

[edwarvir]

Joe is no slouch when it comes to zingers, however
I hope he doesn't do that tonight. Joe doesn't
have to prove anything to the us Sarah does so I
would let her ramble on and let her dig her own
holes. Se will. lol

[Grit]

As long as she can remember to breath, does not go off script, forget what she is suppose to say, the moderator doesn't asked the questions out of order. She will be deemed a winner.
One thing to look for during the debate is if she starts using "in" in place of " ing" and" yah" for" you" it means she has gone off script.

[sposton]

The choice of Palin as his V.P. is McCain's first critical executive decision. He blew it from the beginning. No amount prep, cramming, lipstick and gloss can change the fact that Palin is unqualified. After such a disastrous decision who would trust McCain with anything else?

[fiftyseven]

I am so tired of these discussions about how well she can fake it. Look at her politics, which are somewhere to the right of George Bush. There is nothing else that matters.

[Russycle]

I'd say Lux is about right. Palin will answer questions with canned talking points or anecdotes. If Ifill follows up for specifics, she'll be crucified for being in the tank for Obama. If she doesn't, Palin wins because she got her message out.

[EvasDaddy]

She might stop the bleeding, but nothing will cover that huge scab she'll be sporting from now on.

[xcrunner77]

As long as she doesn't have an epileptic seizure or blurt out something racist this will be declared a victory for Palin. No matter that she cannot handle a question more complicated than "what is your favorite color?"

[peacegurl48]

She may "win" but her typical non-answers will not fare well with Americans faced with the prospect of her becoming president. Her interviews demonstrate what she hasn't learned, thought of, been exposed to or reflected upon while amassing her "vast variety" of experience.
The thinking public, and honest media, will not forget her many insipid responses that are already on the record.
The pitbull attacks from Palin and McCain reflect poorly on them and their negative campaign.
I do believe that Palin will continue to inspire the basest of her base.

[Geoffreys]

Just like the 'winner' of last week's debate was different depending on whether or not you were talking to wonks or normal people, I think this one may go the same way. Palin may 'win' according to the talking heads by just not melting down but the public will not buy a candidate that talks incoherently like she did in the Couric interview.

[Speakchic]

What's funny is that no one seems to take into consideration that Biden doesn't have to make her look stupid. This isn't Palin up against another idiot and she just has to survive. She is debating a man who is well versed in politics both domestically and foreign and to think that Sarah Palin's only challenge is to complete sentences and not go toe to toe with this man is ridiculous.

The more articles I read the more annoyed I get b/c we have taken right to the media's talking points and forgotten what this is. She has alot to prove and it carries well past what she says, its how she responds to Biden, how she thinks on her feet, and how much depth she gives on policy. PERIOD! Stop giving this debate to this unqualified woman as if all we care about is her ability to speak!

[dizmo4]

Given the low expectations it seems nearly impossible for Palin not to win the debate. She doesn't need to get into detailed answers and can stick to talking points and deliver zingers at Biden. She' just needs to be likable and folksy.

That said, given the low expectations she may feel the need to prove she's just as smart as Biden and that will be where she gets herself into trouble because she is NOT remotely as smart as Biden. My gut is she'll stick with the first strategy and come off as likable but i'm not sure if that will necessarily help her. Her polling averages won't fall but i don't know if they'll improve.

I do see some pitfalls that she is likely to fall into. The bail out is huge and I suspect that she knows nothing bout it except the talking points. She'll give a general answer but if Biden can give a detailed answer that can help the average American explain this mess, he'll be able to change the dynamics of the debate and force her to prove she's just as smart.

Second is if she tries to criticize Biden for spending too much time in the Senate--too much Washington experience. Biden can field this easily and point it back to McCain having just as much experience as Biden does.